🚨 @LynAldenContact ON WHY NOTHING STOPS THE DEBT SPIRAL: "Congress going to say, 'The 10-year is over 5%, maybe we should trim defense spending or reform Social Security and Medicare?' It's not gonna happen. There's no political will to do that. Less than 1% chance. Negligible." On how it plays out instead: "If the Treasury market ever breaks, instead of Congress doing anything, the Fed steps in. They kind of have to because financial stability and moderate long-term yields are part of their mandate. Congress isn't doing it because the people don't really want it. They want a balanced budget in theory. But do you want to cut this, this, and this, or raise your taxes? 'Well, no.'" On the historical endpoint: "The end game for highly indebted governments, nearly 100% of the time, ends with financial repression, trying to inflate that debt away, and impairing cash and bondholders. Whether it's the central bank doing it, whether it's the Treasury doing it, whether they take turns, these are the types of things you see when you start getting over 100% debt to GDP and no realistic austerity anywhere near the horizon."