Pauleen

Hello from Washington DC, from where I will present the Peston show on Wednesday night. We’re here because this presidential election may be the most important political event in all our lives for at least a generation. The reasons it is so consequential are global and narrowly British. They stem from the significant risks and uncertainties associated with a Trump presidency at a time when there are wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, growing superpower tension between China and the US, and the global economy is fragile. To simplify: Kamala Harris represents continuity America; Trump says (though we’ve learned that for him words are not always deeds) he wants a massive increase in tariffs, that he would expel millions of undocumented immigrants, and that he would end the Ukraine war pronto. If all or any of these materialized, American and global growth would slow considerably, inflation would rise and Putin would be emboldened. Trump is also perceived as more likely than Harris to allow Netanyahu to conduct his offensives against Iran and its proxies in whatever way Israel chooses. And he is widely seen as having only limited respect for America’s constitution and rule of law, such that he would pardon his own alleged crimes and misdemeanours, pursue his enemies ruthlessly and endeavour to entrench himself in power. The charge that he would impair democracy in America, the world’s most important democracy, is not hysterical or extreme, and that matters wherever you live. More narrowly, the UK’s historic relationship with the US is its most important with any single nation - in respect of security, trade, research collaboration, business collaboration and so on. This is why Keir Starmer risked criticism from his supporters by wooing Trump so enthusiastically in his recent trip to New York. Take the AUKUS security partnership between the US, the UK and Australia, which under the radar (as it were) is turning into an arrangement almost as important as NATO for the Indo Pacific region. It involves the sharing of secrets and a transfer of highly sensitive nuclear technology that would be unthinkable between the US and pretty much any nation but Britain. So although the UK’s general election on American Independence Day, July 4, mattered, perhaps even more consequential for us is today’s vote in America, on Bonfire Night. Americans will choose between a continuation of the post war consensus in US and global governance, the primacy of rules and law, and the cult of Trump the dealmaker. It is a heavy responsibility.