Founder of Big Picture Trading, co-host of the MacroVoices and Market Huddle podcasts and options instructor for the TMX Montreal Exchange
Lisboa, Portugal
Joined November 2012
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Notice What Just Happened to the AI Trade? nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1vJpPNMwQ…
The soy complex just shed 63,501 contracts of large-spec net exposure.
Yet soybean prices barely broke.
Positioning reset—or warning shot?
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Something Doesn’t Add Up About This Fed Pause nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1qxoNYlzk…
Large specs are extremely long the 2Y (93) and 5Y (89), while the 10Y sits down at 22.
At the same time, Nasdaq positioning is still heavily crowded at 93 while the S&P 500 is only 25.
That’s a huge split in conviction.
Traders are all-in on very different parts of the market — and that divergence is getting hard to ignore.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=heatmap&…
Copper’s one-year positioning score plunged 20 points as funds cut longs and added shorts.
Yet price barely moved.
When positioning cracks harder than price, pay attention.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
The Next 48 hours Could Change Everything nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1nxeLMNqm…
Patrick Ceresna📈📉 retweeted
The Widowmaker
Natural-gas positioning hit zero across the one-, three- and five-year scores. The price keeps breaking badly with warm weather.
This weeks positioning change wasn’t fresh shorting—longs quit while shorts covered.
Read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Natural-gas positioning hit zero across the one-, three- and five-year scores. The price keeps breaking badly with warm weather.
This weeks positioning change wasn’t fresh shorting—longs quit while shorts covered.
Read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
This COT report only caught the start of the metals washout.
Gold lost 8,158 spec longs. Silver’s one-year score hit zero as shorts built.
The worst came after Tuesday.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Elon Musk Just Issued a Dire Warning... nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1NGaroLvP…
Patrick Ceresna📈📉 retweeted
This week @kevinmuir and @PatrickCeresna welcome to the show, Robert Mullen @MRAfunds Marathon Resource Advisors to discuss contrarian investing, portfolio hedging, long volatility, and why energy, copper, shipping, and other resource markets may be setting up for a major regime shift. youtu.be/pH6CR-5PclU
Big money is bailing on corn.
Large specs cut net exposure by 71,678 contracts this week—and 165,784 in two weeks—while small specs kept buying the dip.
Patrick Ceresna📈📉 retweeted
A controversial take from @PatrickCeresna: Oil prices could be the trigger for the next global recession. When energy costs surge, oil-dependent economies can grind to a halt, just as $150 oil helped fuel the 2008 recession.
Full episode: youtu.be/Y4o21VTWj0c
More at: johnsonrandall.com
Commodity positioning is getting seriously lopsided.
Large specs are at 2 in natural gas, 17 in Brent, 19 in silver — while copper sits up at 81.
That’s a massive split in conviction.
The question now: which crowded trade breaks first?
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=heatmap&…
The FX positioning is getting extreme.
Large specs are at 0 on the Euro, 0 on the Pound, and 0 on the Aussie — while the US Dollar sits at 75.
That’s a huge concentration in one direction.
The question now: how much more crowded can the dollar trade get before something snaps?
Read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=heatmap&…
Patrick Ceresna📈📉 retweeted
MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome Dr. Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji and Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They discuss Anas’s takeaways from the Riyadh Energy Week conferences and how the “three seas crisis” in the Gulf, Red Sea, and Black Sea, is reshaping energy security and global supply chains. We also have Louis discussing the recent developments in France. bit.ly/4yZbUOR
Is This Gold and Silver Breakdown Actually Real? nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1AKEmvpMy…
Silver, platinum and palladium entered the week near the bottom of their one-year positioning ranges—before Wednesday’s metals washout.
This report caught the first crack. The next one should reveal the real damage.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Why Is Nobody Talking About This Mag Seven Risk? nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yxBePgzZ…
Large specs are heavily long the 2Y and 5Y, but still notably light on the 10Y and 30Y.
At the same time, Nasdaq positioning remains crowded while the S&P 500 and Russell lag badly.
This week’s COT heatmap is basically screaming one thing:
the market is deeply split beneath the surface.
Read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=heatmap&…
