Donate $49 to charity and trade by my side https://nitter.cf/t.co/6mN6A1JMoG
Joined March 2021
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Yerp
The best technical risk on, risk off indicator in the market, especially if you’re a trend follower like me, is the weekly MACD (6,20,9).
Once MACD crosses down and price loses its uptrend, just wait for the first weekly close with a MACD up cross. That’s your confirmation.
You don’t need breadth.
You don’t need sentiment.
You don't need NAAIM.
You don't need COCK data.
You don't need an over complicated dashboard.
You don’t need any other indicator.
All of these things are noise.
You only need PRICE and MACD.
Don’t believe me?
Go back and look for yourself across any time period, then be the judge.
MACD is a timing tool. This concept applies across all timeframes, even intraday, where it helps you dial in precise entries while aligning with higher timeframe key levels.
It took me five years of relentless study and commitment to continuous improvement to boil risk on down to something this simple. If you follow a system like this with discipline, and you aren’t already, your results should go parabolic. Hope this helps. Let me know if you have questions.
Will $GOOGL save the AI trade tonight?
Will Trump pull a TACO that trumps all TACOs?
Will rates and oil plummet in response?
Will the market go meaningfully higher in the near term?
I don’t know the answer to any of those questions. Just doing my best to stay paytient.
What does Trump need to do between now and Nov. 3 to win the midterms and save the stock market? I think we all know…
Are we about to see the greatest TACO yet in the coming days?
Nothing for me to do until earnings are out of the way. Hopefully, some fresh themes emerge from them but at the moment former leaders are wiiiiide and loose...
Hard to hold onto gains swinging tech stocks long when oil looks like this, let alone actually move the needle. robinhood:0xa30fa36db767ad9ed3f7a60fc79526fb4d56d344
Barring a dramatic reaction to upcoming earnings (which im highly doubtful of), I don’t see the most recent market-leaders moving meaningfully higher without at least two to three months of additional basing best case. As always... doing my best to stay paytient and tbh this market is making it exceptionally easy to do so.
Today I realized that I don’t shout out FinTwit contributors very often, which makes sense because there are only a few I’d actually endorse, but with that being said:
The Uncharted crew (@TSDR_Trading, @Braczyy, @1ChartMaster) really shows up every day and creates an awesome environment for aspiring market navigators. They’re genuinely good people, too.
Check out TSDR’s weekly market recap, “Sunday Scans.” Good stuff! 😎
Not as many charts this week spent a lot of time discussing the previous action in the market and outlook.
Valuable context for mindset and approach.
Give it a read and let us know what you think!
unchartedterritoryy.substack…
Sure. What I’m getting at is the distinction between adaptation and continual improvement.
I really try my best not to change my methods in real time just because I have a thought, emotion, or feeling that doing something differently right now would yield better results. That urge can be convincing. It may even be a clue that something warrants investigation. But conviction in the moment isn’t the same as conviction supported by evidence.
I try to let those urges pass like a cloud and trust the system. If there’s an inefficiency behind them, reviewing trades and conducting periodic performance reviews should help reveal it in the data. Then I can give a potential change the thought and evaluation it deserves.
Is there enough historical evidence to give me confidence that this change will improve my system’s ability to achieve its overall goal?
We don’t golf when the fairways are covered in snow and the pins are out. We don’t go swimming when the lake is frozen. We wait for conditions that allow us to enjoy those activities.
Conditions matter. If my methods work under specific conditions, recognizing when those conditions are absent is part of following them.
Executing well includes not executing when your system, methods, or rules don’t require it. Within a discretionary trading system, inaction is, by and large, the most appropriate action.
And look, there are methods for making money in essentially any market type. Uptrending, sideways, downtrending, you name it. The opportunity exists so long as you understand the environment, have methods with a historically demonstrated edge, and can consistently execute them.
What attracts me to my particular method is that it’s incredibly scalable, and I don’t have to trade every environment to have real outlier success. That matters to me. It allows me to do many other things with my life instead of being glued to the charts, trying to move the needle in every market.
This may sound like semantics. Adaptation versus evolution, or the less romanticized term, continual improvement. But the distinction matters because I personally view adaptation as a last resort: an immediate response to dire circumstances to prevent some sort of catastrophe.
Otherwise, systematic continual improvement should provide the safety net that catches inefficiencies, underperformance, persistent execution errors, etc., and gives me a process for addressing them.
That doesn’t mean assuming the system is perfect or will work forever. It means trusting both its rules and the process for improving them.
I really, really want to avoid overriding the system. And that includes resisting the urge to rewrite its rules in the middle of executing them.
