Asymmetric bets, mom & value, preferably uncorrelated to the major markets, mostly small cap or even smaller
Joined May 2022
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Current allocation:
30% gold via miners and tiny bit of silver
15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca.pa
55% global diversified microcaps
>30% short cash
Rules of thumb so far meaning sometimes I wait to rebalance when I want to be overweight certain assets.
Litigation finance didn't provide any diversification benefit. Still holding $BCHT and $BUR but it doesn't get its own fixed allocation bucket no more.
This is Blaamberg news bringing you the latest what mainstream media doesn't dare to report.
-> 5 days ago oil was around $104 and currently at $87. A huge amount of oil was discovered in the ballots and that's the true reason the price is down.
-> refineries are dropping hard as well and again the mainstream media doesn't dare to tell the truth. Hillary Clinton brokered peace between Ukraine and Russia tonight and a few hours later she ended the Iran war by accepting the seven conditions. Iran was so surprised that they instantly opened the strait and that's why the gas price will come further down.
Blaamberg news got its sources everywhere and can always explain the fundamentals behind the price action. 💪
$su.to fantastic quarter, I gave up when the strait was supposed to open for the hundredth time. "company net debt $1.75B, down from $7.1B a year ago" - > of course it's down as well today 🤡
$SU.TO — Suncor Energy | Q3 2026 Results
Canada's integrated oil sands giant: bitumen mining and in-situ, upgrading, refining and the petro-canada retail network.
📊 Q3 Highlights:
• Revenue (net of royalties): $18.9B (vs $12.6B)
• Adjusted funds from operations: $6.7B, a record ($5.75/share vs $3.16)
• Adjusted operating earnings: $4.6B (vs $1.8B)
• Net earnings: $3.8B, $3.27/share (vs $1.6B), after a $1.08B non-cash impairment
• Operating cash flow: $6.2B (vs $3.8B)
• Free funds flow: $5.2B
• Cash: $8.0B | Total debt: $9.8B excl. leases (company net debt $1.75B, down from $7.1B a year ago)
🛢️ Operations:
• Upstream production: 852,500 bbl/d (vs 870,000), syncrude maintenance weighed
• Record q3 firebag production and record bitumen transfers
• Refinery throughput: 487,700 bbl/d, 95% utilization
• Record q3 refined product sales: 677,000 bbl/d
💰 Shareholder Returns:
• $2.0B+ returned in Q3: ~$1.4B buybacks + ~$700M dividends
• Dividend raised 10% to $0.66/quarter
• Monthly buybacks increased 50% to $750M
Auncor is firing on all cylinders: integration let it capture strong pricing upstream while keeping refineries full, and the result was record cash flow. net debt is now close to the floor, so nearly every extra dollar is going back to shareholders. the impairment and lower syncrude volumes are worth watching, but the cash machine is the story.
Full analysis:
investorlens.io/stocks/SU.TO
#TSX #CanadianStocks #Energy #OilSands #Dividends #Buybacks
Why are tankers down? Fundamentals look great...
Review today's daily shipping and bunker rates from Poten's Daily Briefing, where you can find daily dirty tanker, clean tanker, bunkers, time charter rates, LNG rates and more: hubs.ly/Q04Dk21w0
Amazing how they randomly switch up the patterns of dumping oil. This time it was at the open.
Iran won't give in and the US won't give up its blockade so all the news is noise. My guess is we'll see action again soon after the midterms. Floating crazy ideas about nukes won't change a thing. Martyrdom is the highest privilege in their religious pov. Besides the US would be a pariah on the international stage. Why would the US use nukes against persians if they didn't even use them in the fight against Bin Laden?
Free data 👀👀
If you're out there building agentic agents and algos you know how expensive data is.
23 years of 1 minute data is free from @UArkansas.
API is rate limited to 300rpm.
@MrMilkTrading
hfdatalibrary.com
Easy to understand and even easier to do. An idea that fits on one sheet of paper can't be that complex. 😉
Jokes aside Fischer Black also developed the foundations of the option pricing formula with Myron Scholes but only Merton/Scholes received the Nobel prize bc Black had already passed away.
Found this "old" Nomura presentation on factor-based portfolio construction using augmented Black–Litterman to combine multiple investment signals, account for forecast uncertainty, and control unintended factor exposures
nomura.com/events/global-qua…
A fairly likely scenario but you don't hear about it but why?
Probably not a popular opinion which could get an author in trouble.
A good guess of how the immediate future might look like is the recent past.
That's how I imagine the work of natgas analyst. 👇 A mix of metereologist and supply/demand analysis of natgas.
My guess is that this is the basis for the work of the electricity traders ie short term supply/demand of different means of electricity production. Maybe our pro electricity trader wants to comment. @stromhandler
Manual solutions are the best!
What the hell? Are they expecting a world war or what?
BREAKING: Australia urges all its citizens to stockpile canned food and bottled water to prepare for emergencies, per Yahoo News Australia.
It comes after the UK urged the public to stock up on three days' worth of supplies amid the growing threat of war last week.
Japan, Germany, Sweden and Norway have also told its citizens to prepare for emergencies.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The advice in the Yahoo News Australia article came from Australian Red Cross director Nichola Krey, not the Australian government. She said Australia is "not at immediate threat of war" and pointed to natural hazards instead. au.news.yahoo.com/aussies-urged-…
phoenix retweeted
All people are smart. One part before and the other afterwards.
Thank you @utopia_escape! Wouldn't have sized $Tnz.to without your TTF analysis.
#TTF continuing to spike to new cycle highs. Currently aiming for 100-130 euro by end of the year.
Nothing is solved here, and unless the war ends in say, August, industrial demand destruction will just be poverty with extra steps.
First there were fears that AI could make cybersecurity obsolete just like other fields of software.
Now it looks like AI is increasing the demand for cyber security. 🤔
$BUG is now outperforming $SOXX at more than 75% YTD.
Our cybersecurity analysts comment on the potential AI model revenue from cybersecurity and how the security market could be divided between AI labs and incumbent security platforms like $CRWD.
fundaai.substack.com/p/colum…