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Good morning winners! 32-14 (69.6%) +15.9 units last 46 picks 11-2 (84.6%) last 13 NBA picks 29-16 (64.4%) last 45 NFL picks 12-2 (85.7%) last 14 NCAAF picks 62-34 (64.6%) last 96 NHL picks

Walker Kessler scored 26 points on 12-for-12 shooting against the Warriors on opening night. He already had 9 dunks early in the third quarter, fed by Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. 27-16 (62.8%) last 43 NBA picks Golden State has Kristaps Porzingis out. I’m taking Lakers -1.5 with Doncic expected back to keep feeding Kessler inside. Collin Sexton has averaged 12.0 points across 4 appearances off the bench, including 21 in Wednesday’s win over the Clippers without Doncic. picksoffice.com/telegram

Colorado faces a Kansas St. offense missing Avery Johnson, with backup Jacob Knuth listed as doubtful. The Buffs have allowed 3.7 yards per carry through seven games. 17-8 (68.0%) last 25 NCAAF picks Without Johnson at Arizona State, the Wildcats rushed for 84 yards on 31 carries and converted 4 of 15 third downs. I favor Colorado -1 because its run defense can put more of the game on a depleted quarterback room. Colorado's Joseph Williams caught 9 passes for 135 yards at Oklahoma State, and DeAndre Moore Jr. added 106 receiving yards. Williams has 46 catches for 643 yards this season, with at least 5 receptions in five straight games. picksoffice.com/telegram

Keeping Houston out of transition is the starting point for Under 226.5 in Rockets-Mavericks. The Mavericks allowed no fast-break points against Oklahoma City on Wednesday. 27-16 (62.8%) last 43 NBA picks Their reserves helped apply pressure in that game. Dusty May credited Zaccharie Risacher with beating Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to spots and contesting shots. Marcus Sasser pressured the ball. Houston can challenge Dallas at the rim even when its starting center sits. Clint Capela blocked 2 shots off the bench at Milwaukee, part of the Rockets' 10-block night. Reed Sheppard is also out with low back soreness, removing a guard from Houston's shooting rotation. picksoffice.com/telegram

I'm laying Heat -7.5 against a Pacers frontcourt missing Ivica Zubac. Miami scored 70 paint points in Wednesday's win at Atlanta. 27-16 (62.8%) last 43 NBA picks Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo are projected to start. The Heat also collected 35% of available offensive rebounds against Atlanta. Indiana is missing Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell, with Andrew Nembhard listed as probable. The Pacers gave Philadelphia 26 points off 15 turnovers Wednesday. Without Haliburton or McConnell, Indiana has fewer experienced ballhandlers across its starting and reserve groups. picksoffice.com/telegram

Texas Tech -3.5. Arizona listed starting cornerback Jay'Vion Cole out on Wednesday's availability report. 17-8 (68.0%) last 25 NCAAF picks Kenny Johnson gives Will Hammond an established target to test Cole's replacement. Johnson has 31 catches for 499 yards through seven games. Tech has allowed 106.7 rushing yards per game and just 1 rushing touchdown through seven games. Limiting Arizona's runs would put more of the scoring burden on Noah Fifita. The Wildcats have allowed 17 sacks, and Tech has recorded 20 this season. Tech also averages 46.3 net yards per punt to Arizona's 38.9. picksoffice.com/telegram

Tulane's passing game gets a Charlotte defense that has allowed 17 touchdown passes in 7 games. Trace Johnson threw for a season-high 265 yards against UTSA last week. 17-8 (68.0%) last 25 NCAAF picks Charlotte's run game can help get this Over 46.5 against a Tulane defense allowing 214 rushing yards per game through 7 games. Henry Rutledge ran for 123 yards on 17 carries at Temple on Oct. 17. Conner Harrell threw for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns in that Temple game and added 2 rushing scores. Charlotte converted 6 of 10 third downs at Temple. Tulane has allowed 53 conversions on 106 third downs this season. picksoffice.com/telegram