surprisingly good result from $ASRV today
PPNR/NIM/EPS continue to climb
wisely slowing growth to let capital build and did >10% on tangible equity
5x current eps and 50% tbv ... stock up only 18% or so since below post but perhaps these results get it moving
Micro-cap bank idea not for the faint of heart
$ASRV presents a compelling r/r with the caveat that credit remains a wildcard
More below...
$ENBP with $0.76 in EPS in 1Q. Annualized, puts stock at 5.2x. Trading 67% of tbv and 55% ex. AOCI
NIM up 12 bps and north of 3.0% for first time in 2yrs. ROAA of 80 bps
No credit details which has weakened and Ag book could be pressured
Recently instituted a buyback
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May '23 was a wild time in bank-land as the viability of the community bank model was being called into question
Today's environment is chaotic, but bank-specific fear is lower and we no longer have to grapple with constant hit pieces on deposit outflows and banks going to zero
Of the ~300 public banks with assets $1-$50bn, 33% are trading at cheaper P/TBV valuations than they did on May 12 when KRE bottomed
This is deserved for most due to compressed profits & underwater balance sheets. A few though have maintained decent profitability and accumulated
$ENBP isn’t up today because it’s illiquid
It’s up because, as I wisely and humbly foretold, investors are stampeding to the safety and soundness of this rural Pennsylvania fortress of finance during these turbulent times
I’m the kind of guy who gives myself a standing ovation when my illiquid bank stocks heroically do absolutely nothing during a market crash—then act personally betrayed when they continue doing absolutely nothing while KRE moons.
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I often fall into the "this time is different" camp. I guess sometimes it pays to listen to the indicators with an extremely high historical hit rate
like the fact that things tend to get messy 9-12 mos after 2s/10s uninvert
that curve uninverted ... 9 mos ago
