Chase Bowes

Few things about me: 1) I'm a Conservative Republican focused on electing Conservative Republicans 2) I'm NOT a pollster. I'm an independent polticial analyst and campaign consultant 3) My forecasts are done through data-driven analysis and have NO political bias.

Well, it’s clear my data analysis didn't match what happened tonight. It’s obvious that the data presented this election did not reflect the patterns we have relied on for many previous cycles, and change was voted for in such a way that many of the indicators could not fathom. I knew very early on in the evening that we would see something unprecedented, and I’d like to admit that my forecasts had failed to gauge tonight’s results properly. For the first time in a very long time, polling matched or underestimated Democratic performances, and anti-Trump enthusiasm led to a wave of a magnitude that very few expected. To the candidates, the campaign workers, the volunteers, and the activists: Thank you. Thank you for every door you knocked on, every phone call you made, every yard sign you put out, and all the time, energy, and commitment you poured into this cycle. This is not the end for me, nor should it be for you. Despite tonight's results, your work does not go unnoticed by those who care about our country and try every day to make it a better place. Unfortunately, the President @realDonaldTrump and his Republican establishment @johnthune @JoeGruters do not have the slightest concern for the great American people. This is a major setback for me, as I strive to provide the most accurate analysis possible regardless of my personal opinions, and looking back, there are very few (if any) serious analysts who estimated >240 Democratic seats, much less the now-anticipated 250-260. I said earlier that I would own my forecasts and admit if I was wrong, and I stand by that statement. Every year is a learning experience that I use to build my knowledge. The fight is just beginning, and I’m not going anywhere. Thanks for your support, Chase Bowes

Glory to the polling industry

I'm man enough to go ahead and concede that I was wrong in this election. These results are far beyond what I would've imagined.

Wow... Florida gerrymander looks like it will do nothing.

Slow and scary first hour... Polls are moments away from closing in most of Florida, and results are widely expected to come in quickly

Small first drop from KY-06: 🔴 Alvarado: 59.4% 🔵Dembo: 36% 0.8% in

First drop in IN-05 was not a good one: 🔵Ford: 64% 🔴Spartz*: 36% 29% in

Polls in parts of Kentucky and Indiana are about to close. IN-05 (R-Spartz) and KY-06 (R-Open/Barr) will be the first indicators of how tonight will go. Florida will come soon after and should come in quickly

In no way is this supposed to be a Wishcast. I'm posting the Senate so late because I'm still hesitant on some calls, but I have now committed to this map. I do my absolute best to use data as effectively as possible while removing my own bias to the absolute best of my ability. If I'm wrong in anything tonight, I will own it and use what I learned to improve my models for future elections.

FINAL PREDICTION: U.S. Senate Forecast: November 3, 2026 🔴GOP: 53 Seats (=) 🔵DEMS: 47 Seats (=) 🔵 DEM Flips: 1 North Carolina 🔴GOP Flips: 1 Michigan Margins (States under 15%) Alaska: 🔴+ 0.9 Florida: 🔴+ 13.1 Georgia: 🔵+ 7.8 Iowa: 🔴+ 4.6 Kansas: 🔴+ 1.2 Maine: 🔴+ 2.9 Michigan: 🔴+ 0.3 (FLIP) Minnesota: 🔵+ 3.0 Mississippi: 🔴+ 6.6 Montana: 🔴+ 10.6 Nebraska: 🔴+ 6.3 New Hampshire: 🔵+ 3.9 North Carolina: 🔵+ 7.2 (FLIP) Ohio: 🔴+ 2.1 South Carolina: 🔴+ 2.9 Texas: 🔴+ 1.3

DANG RIGHT As a political analyst: PROVE THE NUMBERS WRONG Let's prove that the polling industry and betting markets are fake!

In my final House of Representatives forecast, Democrats are projected to flip the lower chamber and net 13 seats. All but one (ME-02) Republican flip comes from redistricting following Louisiana vs. Callais. Redistricting, however, gives Republicans only a net total of 2 seats as Democrats gain 7 redrawn districts in California, Ohio, and Utah, and Don Davis (NC-01), Jared Moskowitz (FL-25), and Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) hold on to their Trump-friendly seats. Two seats that could easily go either way are FL-14 and TX-35. Republicans made great gains in Trump+ 10.5 FL-14 during early voting, and Trump+ 10.4 TX-35 will be tonight's showcase of how far left the Hispanic vote swung left since 2024.

FINAL PREDICTION: U.S. House of Representatives Forecast: November 3, 2026 🔵DEMS: 228 Seats (+13) 🔴GOP: 207 Seats (-12) 🟣IND: 0 Seats (-1) 🔵 DEM Flips: 22 AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-01, CA-03, CA-22, CA-41, CA-48, CO-08, IA-01, IA-03, MI-07, NE-02, NJ-07, NC-11, OH-07, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, TX-15, UT-01, VA-02, & WI-03 🔴GOP Flips: 9 AL-02, FL-09, FL-14, FL-22, LA-06, ME-02, TN-09, TX-09, & TX-32 Margins (Seats under 5%): AL-02: 🔴+ 1.3 (FLIP) AZ-01: 🔵+ 3.8 (FLIP) AZ-06: 🔵+ 4.9 (FLIP) CO-03: 🔴+ 0.6 FL-07: 🔴+ 4.9 FL-14: 🔴+ 0.3 (FLIP) FL-22: 🔴+ 2.2 (FLIP) FL-25: 🔵+ 2.4 IA-01: 🔵+ 1.9 (FLIP) IA-02: 🔴+ 1.1 IA-03: 🔵+ 3.9 (FLIP) KY-06: 🔴+ 3.6 ME-02: 🔴+ 0.3 (FLIP) MI-07: 🔵+ 1.4 (FLIP) MI-10: 🔴+ 0.8 MO-02: 🔴+ 2.8 MT-01: 🔴+ 1.9 NJ-07: 🔵+ 4.3 (FLIP) NY-17: 🔴+ 1.0 NC-01: 🔵+ 2.6 NC-03: 🔴+ 4.5 NC-11: 🔵+ 1.2 (FLIP) OH-07: 🔵+ 0.2 (FLIP) OH-09: 🔵+ 1.8 OH-10: 🔴+ 2.5 OH-15: 🔴+ 4.3 PA-01: 🔴+ 3.4 PA-07: 🔵+ 4.3 (FLIP) PA-08: 🔵+ 2.1 (FLIP) PA-10: 🔵+ 2.1 (FLIP) SC-01: 🔴+ 3.0 TX-23: 🔴+ 3.1 TX-35: 🔵+ 0.4 VA-01: 🔴+ 0.7 VA-02: 🔵+ 4.4 (FLIP) VA-05: 🔴+ 2.1 WI-03: 🔵+ 0.6 (FLIP)

First Results out of New Hampshire: Governor: 🔴Ayotte*: 6 🔵Warmington: 1 Senate: 🔴Sununu: 5 🔵Pappas: 2 NH-02: 🔵Goodlander*: 4 🔴Tang Williams: 3

In my final Gubernatorial forecast for the 2026 election cycle, Democrats net 2 seats as they flip Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio while Republicans gain Kansas. Georgia (🔴+ 0.2), Ohio (🔵+ 0.8), and Wisconsin (🔵+ 0.8) appear to be the most competitive, allowing a potential upset for the GOP in the latter. Strong GOP numbers in Arizona and Iowa could shake up some additional Lean D seats. Democrats could make further headway in Nevada and Vermont depending on how the night unfolds.

FINAL PREDICTION: U.S. Gubernatorial Forecast: November 3, 2026 🔴GOP: 16 (24) Seats (-2) 🔵DEMS: 20 (26) Seats (+2) 🔵 DEM Flips: 3 Alaska Iowa Ohio 🔴GOP Flips: 1 Kansas Margins (States under 15%): Alabama: 🔴+10.1 Alaska: 🔵+ 1.5 (FLIP) Arizona: 🔵+ 3.8 Florida: 🔴+ 7.3 Georgia: 🔴+ 0.2 Iowa: 🔵+ 3.6 (FLIP) Kansas: 🔴+ 5.6 (FLIP) Maine: 🔵+ 12.2 Michigan: 🔵+ 5.7 Minnesota: 🔵+ 8.3 Nebraska: 🔴+ 10.2 Nevada: 🔴+ 3.2 New Hampshire: 🔴+ 7.2 New Mexico: 🔵+ 7.7 New York: 🔵+ 11.9 Ohio: 🔵+ 0.8 (FLIP) Oregon: 🔵+ 7.7 South Carolina: 🔴+ 9.8 Tennessee: 🔴+ 14.3 Texas: 🔴+ 5.6 Vermont: 🔴 + 12.8 Wisconsin: 🔵+ 0.8

I'm sure Republicans still have an uphill climb due to poor EV numbers. Still plenty of time for this to change.

Nahhh why are we still getting polls??