FinTech, Markets, India, Food, Asia. Trust Only Data. Bengaluru Boy. Farmer.
Joined August 2014
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Krishna Hegde retweeted
Sentiment is one thing, and market performance is yet another. I think if whatever has happened in small and midcap in Oct 2026 (the relative underperformance) continues for some more time, then sentiment for even domestic retail investors will start to worsen. The jury is still out on this.
As far as this being the worst sentiment ever for India, few occasions come to mind. First, in 2008, the mortgage crisis culminated in the global financial crisis emanating from the US. Their market declined 30%. Our market declined over 60%, A mini credit crisis of our own, especially in the real estate sector, followed by capital outflows and it was further followed by terror attacks in Mumbai and India's largest corporate scandal (i.e., Satyam). I heard some experts express utter dismay, "Why should FIIs ever return to India?" On a 1 trillion market cap, 16 billion of selling resulted in a complete meltdown. There is no domestic market, pathetic governance and there is no free float. It's a one-way street. FIIs have learned the hard lessons. They will never invest back into India.
Second, in 2013, India was already dealing with telecom spectrum allocation-related scams (2G), the coal scam, and what was called phone banking. That was followed by yet another corporate scandal, which is related to the National Spot Exchange, and ended with India being classified as part of the Fragile Five because of poor external macro and lack of competitiveness of the economy. In August 2013, Nifty was a full 1,500 points lower than the peak made in Jan 2008, and the rupee went all the way down to the 67-69 range from about 50 a couple years earlier.
Finally, in 2020, in March, when the markets declined with the onset of COVID-19, India was the worst-performing market in the initial decline, nearly 40%. What was the narrative?
- Extremely humid tropical climate
- High density of population
- Extremely poor medical infrastructure
- Poor hygiene and social protocols
India would be the worst-affected economy in the world.
We all know too well what happened after each of these occasions. I have seen India being called a basket case at least three to four times in my 27 years.
I am not too proud about it or sanguine about it, but it serves investors well not to get carried away by extreme narratives.
Ven. Borelle Seeladassana was a colleague of mine a long time ago. I am proud of how he has pursued spiritual knowledge at incredible depth and is now sharing it with the world.
On the auspicious occasion of Abhidhamma Day, I am honoured to share this special message from Ven. Borelle Seeladassana of the Sihanada International Meditation Community, Sri Lanka, expressing appreciation for Hon’ble PM Shri @narendramodi Ji’s leadership and the Government of India’s efforts to preserve and promote Buddhism across the world.
The message highlights India’s initiatives in strengthening the global Buddhist community through spiritual diplomacy, the sharing of sacred relics, and the preservation and promotion of our rich Buddhist heritage. It also celebrates the deep civilisational and spiritual bonds between India and Sri Lanka, united by the timeless wisdom of Buddha Dhamma.
My heartfelt gratitude to PM Shri @narendramodi ji for his visionary leadership and his guiding mantra of “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” which inspires India’s commitment to fostering mutual respect, cultural understanding and stronger spiritual ties with the global Buddhist community.
#AbhidhammaDay #BuddhaDhamma #IndiaSriLanka
Japanese companies seem to have been hit by a way of hacks last week. Looking at company announcements in English, can spot 5 in just the first screen & there are more as you scroll down.
release.tdnet.info/index_e.h…
Given headlines from last week, expect many companies globally to have serious cybersecurity breaches - they may not all have disclosed at this point.
Gold price in India are down 3.35% in October so far.
So, a gold lender that had a loan with Loan-To-Value of 70% at end Sep, is now looking at a Loan-To-Value of over 74% after adding accrued interest for the month.
The positive side of the Indian stock market sell-off is that we now have a new generation of long term equity investors.
By 2030, if we have 250GW of AI compute (facility level, PUE 1.25, mid point of current forecast range), at $38 per hour, 50% commercial utilization for inference, revenue will be $17 trillion.
Approx 11% of 2030 world GDP.
“A single cluster currently serves 155 trillion tokens/day, generating $38 in revenue per GPU-hour (at off-peak pricing).”
Huge flex from DeepSeek. Not only did they open-source their inference engine, but they also open-sourced their revenue numbers.
They didn't disclose which GPUs they're using here, but DeepInfer supports both NVIDIA Blackwell and Huawei Ascend.
Even assuming they're renting B300s at $7 per GPU-hour, that's ~82% gross margin.
A lot of Indian retail investors are now realizing that talking heads on finance TV channels are not more knowledgeable about the stock markets - they are just more articulate & better dressed.
ARR as a metric is so dead. In a dynamic agent led world where each spend is being negotiated/auctioned/optimized, more parts of the AI software stack need to be valued like hedge fund GPs (low single digit multiple of profits), rather than annuity streams.
Multiply these choices together and the companies assembling agents become always-on negotiators. Much enterprise software is still bought on multi-year contracts, but agent workloads are increasingly bought by the request. Assemblers test combinations of models, tools and runtimes against completion rate, speed and cost, and send more work to whatever wins. Swapping a runtime takes integration work; once routes are wired up, switching models takes a configuration change. The assembler can re-decide the mix on every run, so every supplier is competing for the next request.
Yes Bank dominating headlines post verdict. Few things to note while calculating liability/impact
a. Interest on the bonds were at the discretion of the bank board. Key condition was bank couldn't pay an equity dividend if they chose not to pay interest on AT1 bonds.
b. Interest on the bonds was non-cumulative. If they decided to skip interest for a year, the bank did not need to pay interest for previous & current year.
c. Yes Bank has not paid an equity dividend since 2020.
d. The AT1 do not have a maturity date. Technically, Yes Bank does not need to pay back the bonds anytime.
Coreweave unsecured 5 year bonds are trading at a yield of 15%.
If the sell-off continues, they may need to decide whether they should allocate incremental cash to buy back bonds (Liability Management Exercise) or buy Nvdia GPUs.
Krishna Hegde retweeted
The only site you need to visit to track EVERYTHING about Indian markets, from index performance, breadth, flows, risk, portfolio performance, macros, and more. This is essentially everything I track. Claude put it all in one place.
tipsheet.markets
Krishna Hegde retweeted
The conversation that moves stocks increasingly happens on X in real time. The sell-side still isn't here. I spent two years trying to help solve that from the inside. It hasn't worked so far, so I built it myself. Here is what M Squared Capital is all about:
Dedicated coverage. Every single quarter. Whether you care about the name or not. We don't chase the topic du jour. So, when you do care about a name, the work is already done, and you get more than the same AI answer everyone else has.
We currently cover 20 companies across Athletic and Home, brands and retailers together. Wall Street doesn't. No sell-side analyst who covers Asics is also responsible for Nike. About half the analysts on Dick's follow none of the brands it sells. It is one industry, researched in pieces, and the most useful questions sit in the gaps between those pieces.
Beyond that, I wrote about why the sell-side struggles in: Confessions Of A Sell-Side Analyst.
nitter.cf/MattJMcClintock/status…
The short version is three problems. Corporate access is now what the sell-side gets paid for, and analysts who say critical things rarely get it, so staying uncontroversial is the safe choice. The senior analysts who know the most spend their days marketing to the largest funds while junior associates write the notes. And the bureaucracy is stuck in 1995: a reaction to an earnings call can take a day or more to publish, and none of it is allowed on a platform like this one. Many sell-siders are good analysts in a system that no longer lets them do the job.
I'm not anonymous. I spent 15 years at bulge bracket banks, and anyone in Retail/Consumer can look up what I wrote and whether I was right. That is the underrated thing about sell-side analysts: everything they do is on the public record. Plenty of people post here anonymously, often for good reasons. But it means you can't check their history. You can check mine, and I'm comfortable with that.
My notes from earnings calls are posted here, free, as soon as the call ends. Subscribers get a full report on each company every quarter and the primary research behind it: store visits, pricing checks, and the questions that take weeks of research to nail down. None of the three problems above apply to me, and I'm paid only by subscribers.
Don't take my word for any of it. Everything I've written on $NKE and $RH is open to everyone, models included. Read it and decide whether the other 18 are worth it. Link in bio.
PS: More to come 😉
Yes Bank's update of Sep end loans & advances shows how difficult it will be to project bank earnings for Q2.
Large increase in deposits due to FCNR. But, some of the FCNR deposits were funded by Foreign Currency Term Loans (FCTL) that were extended by Gift City branch. FCTL pushed up the loans & advances.
If you want to reduce demand for an asset you
a. Make it easier to borrow against it?
b. Make it tougher to borrow against it?
underdog is invite only apparently. anyone got one spare? @underdogai .
Considering my new Mac Mini was delivered on Sep 22, will be a shame not to use Underdog. @0xSigil
Meanwhile, the US SEC is fixing issues wrt how investment advisers & funds actually custody their crypto.
This festival season, young Indians who convinced family members to put money in SIP instead of FD/gold need to be ready for swalpa awkward conversations.
