Prabhat M

Before the 2026 World Cup, I pre-registered a forecasting model in a timestamped commit. The group stage is done, 72 games. The verdict: the betting market is better calibrated than my model. The reliability diagram, and why that is the point, is below. 🧵

Before a ball was kicked, my model's four most likely semifinalists were Spain, France, England, and Argentina. Spain and France are already through. If England and Argentina win tonight, my pre-tournament top four becomes the exact final four of this World Cup.

In 24 knockout ties, the favourite won 19 of the 20 that were decided without penalties. The only upset in the whole bracket was Norway beating Brazil. The chaos was in the scorelines, not the results.

The 2026 World Cup group stage is almost done, and here is the strange part. It is one of the highest-scoring on record at 2.94 goals a game. But its biggest shocks were not upsets. They were draws. 🧵

All 12 group winners "earned" a seed in the World Cup last 32. My sim says that reward is wildly unequal: the road to the final runs from a 1665 average-opponent-Elo cruise (Argentina) to a 1996 gauntlet (Netherlands). Same trophy, a 331-Elo spread in difficulty. 🧵

A clean lesson in how knockout brackets really work. A few days ago our sim's projected Argentina vs Portugal meeting was the quarterfinals. Portugal then drew Colombia 0-0, finished 2nd in their group, and now the earliest the two can meet is the final.

8 of the 12 third-place teams at this World Cup reach the knockouts. So how good do you actually have to be? I ran the group stage 40,000 times. The cut line: 3 points. One win, two losses, and you're through 98% of the time. In a 48-team field, the bar is a single result.

10 games into the World Cup, it still feels wide open. The model disagrees: the group stage is mostly settled. 42/48 teams are already above 70% or below 30% to reach the knockouts. The whole qualification fight is between Czechia, Iran, Turkey, Ghana, DR Congo and Paraguay.

Winning your World Cup group is supposed to be the reward. For three teams, it backfires. Brazil, Mexico, and Switzerland are all projected to draw a harder knockout path by winning their group than by finishing second. #WorldCup2026

Half the lopsided games at this World Cup have ended in draws. 5 of 10 mismatches: Spain (a 93% favourite) held 0-0 by Cape Verde, Switzerland 1-1 Qatar, Belgium 1-1 Egypt. The model gave these draws a 1-in-6 shot. The 48-team format made the draw the market's blind spot. 🧵

The 2026 World Cup is averaging 2.98 goals a game. That is the most at any World Cup since 1970, and the highest of the modern era by a distance. A goal-fest, by the numbers. 🧵

In the 48-team World Cup, a team can finish its group, sit down, and watch its place in the last 32 swing 22 points on a match in a different group it has no part in. The math casual fans miss. 🧵 #WorldCup2026

Croatia v Panama is on right now, and it's one of the games on the final group matchday that still actually matters. Meanwhile 16 of the World Cup's strongest teams have already clinched. Their last games are dead rubbers. The jeopardy moved to the teams still fighting. 🧵

Finish 3rd in your group at this World Cup, and your odds of reaching the Round of 32 split three ways: basically 100%, basically 0%, or a coin flip. Which one you land in has almost nothing to do with goal difference. It is decided by points. 🧵 #WorldCup2026

Does the World Cup draw actually matter? I re-ran the real draw thousands of times against a fair re-draw, scored on odds to reach the Round of 32. The "group of death" is a top-team myth, the draw only makes or breaks the teams on the edge. 👇

The first round of group games reshuffled the title race. Argentina (3-0 Algeria) climb to 3rd, 11%. France (3-1 Senegal) pull clear up top, 17.9%. Spain (0-0 Cape Verde) slip off the summit. Brazil fade. #WorldCup2026 De-vigged across Kalshi + Polymarket 👇

A World Cup fact that's genuinely surprising: on Polymarket, the favourites are among the least-traded title contracts. Spain (co-favourite to win the whole thing) is only the 34th most-traded of 48. The money is going somewhere else entirely. 🧵 #WorldCup2026

The Driver Sortino Ratio measures controlled aggression: who extracts the most pace without collapsing under volatility. In other words, who’s the best at “pushing without panic” Full breakdown → medium.com/p/b2ca4dd0029b #QuantFinance #F1 #SportsAnalytics

I just published The Sortino Ratio of a Driver: Measuring Controlled Aggression in F1 medium.com/p/the-sortino-rat…

Every corner, every stint, every decision is all about finding the balance between aggression and control. Full story: medium.com/@prabhatm27/the-s… #Analytics #Sports #DataScience #QuantitativeAnalysis