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An environmental and economic think-tank monitoring aid, trade, corruption, and China's transition to rule of law and constitutional government.

Toronto
Joined February 2010
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Probe International retweeted
Have policymakers in the EU, the UK and US states never heard of El Hierro? A small island with 11,000 residents and plenty of wind. An ideal testing ground for the promise of 100% renewable electricity, before making millions of people depend on it. They installed wind turbines with more than twice the island’s average electricity demand in capacity, plus pumped hydro storage. Yet in 2025, this system supplied just 44% of its electricity. Diesel supplied the rest. @mhtncontrarian explains why: during prolonged periods of low wind, the upper reservoir empties. Then the diesel generators have to take over. If this setup cannot deliver on its promise on a small, windy island, why are politicians so confident it will work on a vastly larger scale? They keep pushing ahead, with millions of people’s electricity supply at stake.
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即将出版:保护卫士关于 #指居 的新书,收录了康明凯、成蕾、李明哲等人的贡献与内容。第二版的《失踪人民共和国》聚焦这套遍布全国的失踪制度下的外国受害者,其中包括該制度被用作人質外交工具的情況。
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Probe International retweeted
Xi Jinping can try and hide the truth about the Cultural Revolution, but we know what really happened. The Select Committee has a new video exclusively on its YouTube channel, about the Cultural Revolution that tells the real history: youtu.be/WgxlL-A7UMI?si=c3xL…
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Probe International retweeted
CCP propaganda is completely out of control. 2.5 million false or disputed items in nine months, up 48% from last year, per Taiwan’s National Security Bureau. State media write the story. Troll armies and PR firms spread it. AI videos and fake accounts fill the comments. Taiwan votes in November. Influence is the cheapest invasion.
China spread more than 2.5 million pieces of disputed or false online information targeting Taiwan in the first nine months of this year, the island's top intelligence agency said, accusing Beijing of stepping up operations ahead of local elections. reuters.com/business/media-t…
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Probe International retweeted
Taiwan’s government networks are being attacked 2.6 million times a day. Six weeks before a national election, its intelligence chief just named Beijing’s playbook. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau told lawmakers that Chinese-linked cyberattacks on government systems averaged 2.58 million per day in the first nine months of 2026. July alone hit 185.6 million detected attempts, more than the entire first quarter. The NSB says it can’t rule out that the surge was groundwork for interfering in the November 28 local elections. Disinformation is climbing too. Suspicious accounts pushed more than 2.5 million false or disputed posts from January to September, up about 48% from last year. The themes: energy, food safety, national defense, and individual candidates. Most of it ran on Facebook, boosted by content farms, AI-generated video and audio, and coordinated comment flooding. NSB Director-General Tsai Ming-yen outlined six tactics Beijing is using to “precisely interfere”: 1. Illegal financial support for chosen candidates or groups 2. Low-cost trips to China for targeted supporters 3. Discounted flights so Taiwanese in China can come home to vote 4. Disinformation, including AI-generated content 5. Illegal underground betting markets 6. Cyberattacks to steal election intelligence The bureau says it is monitoring nearly 100 suspected cases and aims to refer them to prosecutors before voters go to the polls. Taiwan has seen this before and mostly held up. But the tools are getting faster, cheaper, and harder to trace.
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Probe International retweeted
John Cowperthwaite did more for human prosperity than any development economist drawing a government salary ever managed, and he did it by refusing to do almost anything at all. As Hong Kong's Financial Secretary from 1961 to 1971, Cowperthwaite ran one of the most radically free economies the modern world has ever seen. He kept taxes flat and low (the top income tax rate sat at 15%), ran consistent budget surpluses, abolished import tariffs, and blocked nearly every subsidy request that crossed his desk. When British civil servants demanded economic statistics to justify intervention, he refused to collect them. Not out of laziness. He genuinely believed that giving planners numbers gave them excuses. The results? In 1960, Hong Kong's per capita income stood at roughly 28% of Britain's. By 1997, Hong Kong had surpassed Britain. That trajectory happened without natural resources, without foreign aid, and without a single five-year plan drafted by well-intentioned economists from Oxford. Hong Kong had a harbor, people willing to work, and a bureaucrat with enough intellectual discipline to keep the state out of their way. Capital flows toward secure property rights and reliable rules, and flees the moment politicians start allocating it. Every industry Beijing picked as a "priority sector" during those same decades burned through subsidies and produced junk. Hong Kong's industries emerged organically, serving real demand, building real wealth. You benefit from this history whether you know it or not, because Hong Kong's success gave the world a controlled experiment that still embarrasses every advocate of managed development. The control group thrived. The planned economies didn't. Cowperthwaite retired to St Andrews, received a knighthood, and gave almost no interviews. That restraint was entirely in character.
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Probe International retweeted
First it was Lying Flat. Then there was Let it Rot. Then Involution. Now the new thing is Wall Hanging Youth—挂壁青年. This year a record 12.7 million Chinese youths are graduating, and there aren't jobs for them. China's youth unemployment has once again hit record levels, despite the Chinese state changing out they calculate it. The Wall Hanging Youth are forced to sleep in bowling alleys, billiards clubs, or Internet cafe, completely marginalized and hopeless. And it's a MAJOR problem for Xi Jinping's dream of a Chinese rejuvenation.
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Probe International retweeted
Ethics filings show @MarkJCarney held stock in heating & ventilation firms that now stand to benefit from $2B heat pump rebate plan: "How is that not corrupt?" asked #ethics committee chair @JohnBrassardCPC.  blacklocks.ca/how-is-that-no… #cdnpoli
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Probe International retweeted
Carney now a global outlier? ‘The European Parliament voted for a significantly tougher China position on Wednesday, despite strong and long-standing lobbying from Beijing to tone down its official stance.The chamber backed stronger actions against Beijing, stating it is a “decisive enabler” of Russia, calling for a “continuous [European] naval presence and joint exercises” in and around the Taiwan Strait, and urging swift action to counter Beijing’s industrial policy, which it described as an “existential threat to the EU”.
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Probe International retweeted
中国共産党が1989年6月4日、天安門広場で学生運動を武力弾圧した未公開の衝撃映像が、ついに明らかになった📺 英国ITNが30年間封印してきたオリジナル映像が、ついに解禁された🔓
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Just now, Dongchedi, under ByteDance, released an emergency braking test video for the Huawei Zunjie V800—the business car that retails for 880k or 1.01 million, with a fridge in the back and the ability to brew coffee. The result? Multiple cars, several tests, and every time they hit the emergency brakes, the brake pedal straight-up snapped off. Now the comment section is blowing up, all asking when this video's gonna get PR'd into oblivion and taken down.
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Probe International retweeted
Going Home to Tibet: China’s Propaganda Trap for Diaspora Tibetans bitterwinter.org/going-home-… Lawmakers in Dharamsala warned that Beijing may exploit family reunions, tourism, and youth tours as part of its united-front strategy.
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Another Chinese car in Malaysia. When they say Chinese car has competitive price and a lot of features, this is what you get. Extra features are cheap, safety features is not.
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Probe International retweeted
A Chinese-owned mine dumped 50 million liters of toxic sludge into the river that supplies drinking water to 5 million Zambians. Sino-Metals Leach's tailings dam breached in February 2025, flooding the Kafue River. Zambian communities are now suing the company. It's not an isolated accident. Allegations of abuse linked to Chinese mining in Africa doubled in a single year, from 45 to 100. The Democratic Republic of Congo alone recorded 52 cases. Ten Chinese companies account for nearly two-thirds of every allegation tracked. These are the mines feeding the batteries and solar panels sold as the clean energy future. genocidewatch.com/single-pos…
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Probe International retweeted
The economic hollow-out of the West was only stage one of globalism’s experiment. What is unfolding now is the broader collapse of Western institutional confidence—a society dismantled simultaneously by energy delusion and the abandonment of its sovereign borders. The push for a wind and solar transition was sold as a technological leap forward. In reality, it ignores the fundamental laws of energy density. Weather-dependent generation can produce electricity for household lighting, but it cannot deliver the continuous, ultra-high thermal energy required for heavy industry, blast furnace steel production, chemical manufacturing, ocean freight or commercial aviation. By handicapping its own domestic energy grid with high-cost, intermittent generation, the West did not eliminate fossil fuels—it simply outsourced its industrial emissions and heavy manufacturing to Asia. The irony is stark: to build a green grid, the West must import energy-intensive components manufactured overseas using coal-fired power, creating a new, highly destructive industrial footprint while crippling domestic energy security. Compounding this industrial retreat is a complete paralysis regarding border integrity and social cohesion. Western political elites, transfixed by the doctrines of multiculturalism, have allowed uncontrolled and unvetted migrant flows to overwhelm public infrastructure, dilute civic identity and erode the rule of law. They are becoming dangerous crime states. What should be a basic duty of the nation-state—protecting its sovereign borders—has been abandoned in favor of fawning globalist posturing. When you dismantle domestic industry, enforce artificially expensive energy, and dissolve national borders, you do not create a globalist utopia. You destroy real capital. Without capital and productive sovereign industry, the fundamental pillars of Western life will (and are) falling apart. The reward for hard work disappears, upward mobility stalls, and the purpose of a long-term career is replaced by managing decline. A society that abandons its industrial base and surrenders its borders eventually surrenders its future.
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Probe International retweeted
Cambodian police just arrested 26 Chinese nationals operating an underground scam ring inside a private villa, proving cybercrime syndicates are mutating rather than disappearing. Official claims that scam compounds were wiped out completely miss how these networks adapt. On September 29, 2026, Preah Sihanouk Provincial Police raided a villa in Sihanoukville, detaining 34 fraud suspects, including 26 Chinese nationals, and seizing telecom equipment. The bust happened right after Prime Minister Hun Manet declared all major compounds dismantled. Transnational crime syndicates adapt fast. When governments raid massive industrial compounds, bosses do not quit. They break large teams into smaller cells inside residential villas and apartments. This decentralization keeps their global fraud active while evading detection.
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Probe International retweeted
解放军的武器计划,被中共国自家的顶尖AI送给了美国。 而且送得极其贴心。 谁捅出来的? 美国财长贝森特在访谈里直接点名。 他说这事既然公开了,就可以拿出来聊聊。 捅娄子的是中共国公认最强的AI模型之一,Kimi。 这模型有个致命毛病:它总觉得自己是美国的Claude。 聊着聊着,它甚至会直接告诉你:我是Claude。 结果更绝的事发生了。 Kimi转头就把解放军的武器方案,打包回传给了开发Claude的美国公司Anthropic。 贝森特在镜头前调侃:这真是帮了大忙。 中方是什么反应? 贝森特说,正是类似这种事,才让中方真正意识到了这项技术的威力。
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Probe International retweeted
China's own economic miracle just got declared broken, by one of the people who studies it closest. Logan Wright of Rhodium Group titled his new book "Broken China." His argument, in his own words: "this credit-dependent, investment-driven growth model has basically come to an end." He says China built one of the largest credit expansions in a century, and now that system is running out of road. Here's the scale. Between 2008 and 2016, Chinese banks added new lending equal to roughly a third of global GDP. Much of it went into projects that never generated enough return to pay the loans back. Property once made up 20-25% of GDP. New housing starts have fallen nearly 80% since the peak, sales are down more than 60%, and buyers no longer expect prices to rise. Wright's conclusion matters because of what it challenges. Beijing's message to the world has been that its rise is unstoppable. He says that story doesn't hold anymore, that China now faces a genuinely more constrained future. New strategic industries like EVs and robotics won't fix this either, he argues. They're capital-heavy, not job-heavy, and don't solve the deeper problem: Chinese households don't consume enough, and the fix (shifting taxes, writing down bad loans) is politically hard to do. He also says the US now has more economic leverage over China than it has in years, not because of chip bans, but because China can't keep growing without selling into markets abroad.
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