Richard Edwards

John Iaonnidis and collaborators just published a preprint estimating lives saved all over the world from the vaccine rollouts They estimated 2.533 million deaths were averted, 82% among people vaccinated before any infection (thus exposing their immune system to the sarscov2 antigen through vaccine rather than viral infection), 57% during the Omicron period, and 90% in people >60yrs old (but only 2% at long term care facilities). Their calculations are notably more conservative than others. Their results agree with what I have been saying all along has been clear by a critical assessment of existing data and studies: 1. The vaccine rollouts had a tremendously positive net benefit 2. Especially in the first 18m after rollouts when population immunity levels were lower and risk of severe/fatal disease higher, In spite of their limitations and risks revealed in the accruing data and studies including: 3. Reduced effectiveness (especially vs infection) after antibody waning and 4. Some rare but serious minority harm risks (most notably myocarditis for mRNA vaccines and VITT for viral vectors) that are important to monitor. They fell short of the unrealistic expectations some raised after rollout and, like all things, were shown to have some risk, But those who have tried to talk like they never provided any benefit or led to an extreme high level of harm that outweighed the benefit have always been far off base from what the evidence has shown. If I can find the time, later I’ll discuss in more detail in a thread. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…