Richard Bernstein Advisors

Richard Bernstein Advisors is now officially a part of Janus Henderson Investors. Our independent, research-driven process remains intact, now supported by Janus Henderson’s broader resources. Find out more here: ir.janushenderson.com/News--… #BrighterFutureTogether

The #Fed Chair has both favored and criticized rules-based monetary policy. But what’s the justification for not raising rates when all 30 versions of the #TaylorRule uniformly indicate multiple rate hikes are appropriate? (Table: Atlanta Fed)

Nominal #GDP Growth (now almost 6%!) continues to pull the 10-Year T-Note Yield upward. Really just simple Economics 101.

It took less than 24 hours for the #Fed to look unwise not to raise rates. #JoblessClaims (LEADING Indicator…the Fed is a lagging indicator) continue to show terrific strength.

It took less than 24 hours for the #Fed to look unwise for not raising rates. Their fav measure of #inflation (#CorePCE deflator) is increasing and is moving away (NOT toward!) their 2% target.

#Fed concerned about “financial conditions tightening”. Wait, what? #FinancialConditions remain among the easiest in the past 35 years!!!

The #Fed used to be “data dependent” but increasingly appears to ignore even their own research. NY Fed #SupplyChainDisruption Index clearly reflects #deglobalization and potential #inflation pressures.

Why US #TradeDeficit continues to balloon: Domestic #Manufacturing #construction DOWN over the last 3 years while gluttonous #DataCenter bubble gobbles imported equipment and materials.

Despite #tariffs the US remains massively and increasingly dependent on the rest of the world for goods. #TradeDeficit was worse only when companies tried to front run tariffs in 2025.

The #Fed somehow remains hesitant to raise rates despite the clear trend to raise #prices across every regional Fed pricing survey. So much for #DataDependent.

#ConsumerConfidence report shows ongoing immense #IndividualInvestor #bullish sentiment toward #equities.

The momentum of Core #CapitalGoodsOrders might be topping out. Not overly concerning but worth watching especially with all the #AI #DataCenter hype.

Pretty funny! #AI gets the spotlight but boring #ConsumerStaples have now outperformed broad AI on a YTD total return basis.

#Credit Spreads are starting to widen a bit but it’s worth reviewing how speculative this elongated credit cycle has been.

#LLM #Token prices down ~40% since 6/30 whereas #Diesel prices up ~30%. Guess which industry is building massive capacity and which one isn’t!!

Investors should remember the US #StrategicPetroleumReserve (#SPR) is almost dry as #Mideast tensions are apparently heating up once again

WOW! #JoblessClaims (LEADING Indicator) continue to show remarkable strength. The #Fed might not say so but the hiking cycle seems in its infancy.

The LEADING Indicators (remember the #Fed is a lagging indicator) continue to improve suggesting the hiking cycle might just be beginning.

#CPI #PPI #ImportPrices #JoblessClaims and now #IndustrialProduction all suggest the #Fed rate hike has done little to slow the economy. Likely more rate hikes ahead.

#Inflation is NOT simply about #energy!! Import Prices EX PETROLEUM are surging. Now +6%!! The #Fed still has some serious work to do.

The US continues to #import #inflation as #deglobalization expands. Core #ImportPrices (NO FOOD OR ENERGY!) continue to rise faster than Core #CPI.