Market Analyst محللة للأسواق العالمية Personal viewpoints, not financial advice وجهات نظر شخصية، وليست نصائح استثمارية
DXB
Joined January 2022
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$US10Y Treasury yields are testing key Fibonacci support near 4.93%, with geopolitical and election uncertainty keeping the bullish consolidation scenario in focus.
A breakdown below 4.93% and 4.88% could expose a steeper decline in yields and weigh on the dollar’s rally.
A reversal above 5.20% and 5.34% would further support the dollar and pressure broader markets.
Besides oversold momentum conditions on the $EURUSD chart, last seen in 2020, $US10Y yields are testing a historic barrier that has acted as both support and resistance since the 1920s.
Three-month momentum is also showing overbought conditions last seen in 2022 and 1980.
An interesting setup: breakout or pullback?
The $EURUSD chart may be forming its final lows.
- Daily RSI is rebounding from oversold levels last seen in 2015.
- Weekly RSI is testing oversold levels last seen in 2025.
- The $DXY’s 2026 trend is narrowing.
A break below 1.11 could expose 1.10 and 1.0950, a downtrend that acted as resistance for 18 years before turning into support.
A move back above the July–September downtrend near 1.1260 and then 1.1320 would revive bullish continuation expectations.
The $DXY may be tracing the fifth and final impulsive wave of its broader 2026 advance.
Price is consolidating below 102.60 resistance. A close above this level could expose the eight-month rising resistance near 103–103.40.
A breakdown below the 101.80–101.40 support zone and the 10-month trendline could invalidate the bullish setup, exposing 101, 100.50 and 100.
The $DXY may be tracing the fifth and final impulsive wave of its broader 2026 advance.
Price is consolidating below 102.60 resistance. A close above this level could expose the eight-month rising resistance near 103–103.40.
A breakdown below the 101.80–101.40 support zone and the 10-month trendline could invalidate the bullish setup, exposing 101, 100.50 and 100.
Elections, central bank decisions and Mega cap earnings are key catalysts to watch this week.
Key points from my latest webinar:
$DXY: Neutral-to-bullish above 101.50. A break below 101.50–101 would increase selling pressure; a move above 102.60–103 would strengthen the bullish outlook.
$EURUSD: Still below its year-long trendline and 1.1260 resistance. A close above could expose 1.1320; a break below the yearly low at 1.11 could open the way to 1.10 and 1.0940.
$Gold: Neutral above 3,930. A break below this level could expose 3,880, 3,680 and 3,480.
$Silver: Reversal risks are in focus near 52.80. A close below this level could expose 50 and 46.
$UAEMSCI: At risk of breaking below its 2023–2026 channel. The outlook remains bearish to neutral amid geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing negotiations.
Full webinar:
youtu.be/MKW4d2x2Lj0
Gold and Silver remain under pressure from U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty.
$Gold is holding above its 2026 low and the 3,930 support level. A break below could open the way to 3,880, 3,680 and 3,480.
$Silver is testing support near its 2026 lows at 52.80. A sustained break below could expose 50 and 46.
Key scenarios in sight:
youtu.be/LntKUuPylWU?si=qYHu…
Elections, central bank decisions and Mega cap earnings are key catalysts to watch this week.
Key points from my latest webinar:
$DXY: Neutral-to-bullish above 101.50. A break below 101.50–101 would increase selling pressure; a move above 102.60–103 would strengthen the bullish outlook.
$EURUSD: Still below its year-long trendline and 1.1260 resistance. A close above could expose 1.1320; a break below the yearly low at 1.11 could open the way to 1.10 and 1.0940.
$Gold: Neutral above 3,930. A break below this level could expose 3,880, 3,680 and 3,480.
$Silver: Reversal risks are in focus near 52.80. A close below this level could expose 50 and 46.
$UAEMSCI: At risk of breaking below its 2023–2026 channel. The outlook remains bearish to neutral amid geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing negotiations.
Full webinar:
youtu.be/MKW4d2x2Lj0
Razan Hilal, CMT retweeted
🇺🇸 Trump on Abdul El-Sayed:
"He was a member and probably still a member of the Muslim Brotherhood."
That word "probably" next to this kind of accusation is just insane to me...
Writer: Oliver nitter.cf/clashreport/status/211…
$BRENT–WTI spread hits an 11-year resistance zone
Monthly RSI is back near 2011 highs, while the $WTI line chart retests 15-year resistance.
Mean-reversion risks are in focus as geopolitical uncertainty persists ahead of the Israeli and U.S. elections.
Full analysis: youtu.be/vA6qHpcPeXY?si=PWgT…
“The longer a consolidation extends, the sharper the eventual breakout may be.”
$UAEMSCI is testing its multi-month consolidation and three-year channel from below, while the $SP500 rebounds within its five-month range.
Two charts on my radar ahead of key earnings, central bank decisions, and election results in the coming weeks.
Full article: forex.com/en/news-and-analys…
Razan Hilal, CMT retweeted
فارق عوائد سندات فرنسا وألمانيا يرتفع إلى 153 نقطة أساس فيما تشهد عوائد سندات الخزانة الأميركية تراجعا جماعيا في جلسة اليوم
📌محللة أسواق معتمدة في FOREX.com رزان هلال تتحدث عن الأسباب لـ #العربية_Business
Razan Hilal, CMT retweeted
Russian sanctions waivers and slowing demand growth weighed against the risk of further attacks on energy infrastructure. @RH_Waves examines how the timing of the U.S. and Israel votes could shape Brent's risk outlook.
Read more: stonex.com/en-us/insights/oi…
#StoneX #BrentCrude #OilMarkets
Back from walking through 5,000 years of civilization in Egypt! 🇪🇬
Key takeaways from today’s market webinar:
#DXY: Pulled back from 103 and an 8-month resistance level, now facing the 101.50–101 support zone for bearish confirmation.
#EURUSD: Rebounding from 1.11 support and oversold daily momentum levels last seen in 2015. The 1.1260 - 1.1320 resistance remains key for bullish confirmation.
#UKOIL: A daily close above 108 would reassert the bullish bias toward yearly highs, while a break below 99 could signal potential longer term de-escalation.
#Nasdaq: Testing the 29,000 support amid oversold momentum conditions last seen in July and March, ahead of key earnings this week.
#UAEMSCI: Attempting to break below its March–October consolidation range and 2023–2026 uptrend. A reversal back above 20 and 20.30 is needed to invalidate the bearish breakdown scenario.
Full webinar: youtu.be/nZGpc_8Cs_E?si=pbNG…
$GBPUSD update
Price action is retesting the lower boundary of a sideways consolidation range that has been in place since November 2025, near 1.3180, as US bond yields continue to rise.
Reversal risks may be building, but a break below 1.3180 would weaken the setup.
Latest analysis:
youtube.com/watch?v=WQ-hX9Es…
$GBPUSD is testing the lower boundary of its year-long consolidation in both price and RSI terms, near the previously highlighted 1.3240 support.
A close below 1.3200 would expose 1.3100 and the psychological 1.3000 level, increasing the risk of further downside.
However, oversold RSI readings on the hourly and daily time frames, alongside year-long support, could support a bullish rebound. A close back above 1.3340 and 1.3400 would help reinstate the short-term bullish bias.
Key points from my latest webinar:
$DXY’s pullback from 102.50 resistance may have room to continue, with daily overbought conditions last seen in 2023 and oversold conditions on $EURUSD last seen in 2015.
$CrudeOil retains a neutral-to-bearish outlook as Gulf exports recover. Prices remain below September highs, with support at 86. A break below 86 could expose a steeper drawdown.
$XLE is pulling back from 18-year resistance, raising the risk of a longer-term reversal.
$Gold and $Silver continue to hold their long-term bullish setups above 4,100 and 60, respectively.
$DowJones maintains a bullish setup above 50,300. A break below this level would be needed to shift the outlook to bearish.
$UAEMSCI and $Salik continue to hold within their multiyear uptrends, reflecting resilience and keeping the bullish continuation scenarios in focus.
Watch the full webinar:
youtu.be/6q9Rq35v494?si=Cryl…
$Gold and $Silver Update
Gold and silver may have broken below their July–September uptrends, but the long-term bullish bias remains intact.
Key scenarios:
youtu.be/SmHm8pHjva4?si=V4Qe…
Another $EURUSD update
Daily RSI is flashing oversold signals last seen in 2015. Reversal risks may be building, particularly as the move appears not to be dollar-led.
Key levels I’m watching:
$DXY: 102.50 resistance; a break higher could open the way toward 103.50.
$EURUSD: 1.1150 support; a break lower could expose 1.10.
$GBPUSD: 1.3190 support continues to hold, potentially signaling near-term reversal risks.
$EURUSD update
Daily RSI is flashing oversold momentum conditions last seen in 2020, suggesting near-term reversal potential across EUR/USD, the DXY and correlated currency pairs.
Key levels I’m watching:
• 1.1250 on $EURUSD
• 102 on $DXY
• 1.3190 on $GBPUSD
Full article: forex.com/en/news-and-analys…
Besides oversold momentum conditions on the $EURUSD chart, last seen in 2020, $US10Y yields are testing a historic barrier that has acted as both support and resistance since the 1920s.
Three-month momentum is also showing overbought conditions last seen in 2022 and 1980.
An interesting setup: breakout or pullback?
$EURUSD update
Daily RSI is flashing oversold momentum conditions last seen in 2020, suggesting near-term reversal potential across EUR/USD, the DXY and correlated currency pairs.
Key levels I’m watching:
• 1.1250 on $EURUSD
• 102 on $DXY
• 1.3190 on $GBPUSD
Full article: forex.com/en/news-and-analys…
$EURUSD update
Daily RSI is flashing oversold momentum conditions last seen in 2020, suggesting near-term reversal potential across EUR/USD, the DXY and correlated currency pairs.
Key levels I’m watching:
• 1.1250 on $EURUSD
• 102 on $DXY
• 1.3190 on $GBPUSD
Full article: forex.com/en/news-and-analys…
Razan Hilal, CMT retweeted
MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS RECOVER TO PREWAR LEVELS
Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 98% of prewar levels, reaching roughly 17.5 million barrels per day, according to JPMorgan.
Producers are increasingly bypassing Hormuz through alternative pipelines, ports and ship-to-ship transfers, with 40% of September crude exports avoiding the strait.
However, the recovery remains uneven: diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports are still around 50% of normal levels, keeping global fuel supplies vulnerable.
Key points from the latest webinar:
• $DXY is approaching yearly highs, with daily overbought momentum risks last seen in June. A breakout above 101.80 is needed to confirm further upside.
• $US10Y is testing highs last seen in 2007, while weekly momentum is at levels last seen in 2022—highlighting reversal risks as U.S.–Iran negotiations progress.
• $Gold and $silver retain their long-term bullish structures, but key support levels near 4,100 and 60.20 remain critical.
• The $Dow remains neutral to bullish above 51,200, with 50,200 acting as a long term invalidation level.
• $NASDAQ retains its bullish structure above 30,000, with 29,600 acting as a key invalidation level.
• $UAEMSCI is attempting a bullish breakout from its March–September consolidation, signaling resilience and potential bullish continuation.
Full webinar: youtu.be/3ZUPte_wqEg
$Gold and $Silver are back at a cliff’s edge, testing the uptrending support that defined their July–September gains.
Gold is trading near $4,240 and silver near $63, facing mounting pressure as bond yields surge to multi-decade highs, October Fed rate-hike expectations rise above 70%, and the U.S. dollar holds above 101.
Key Scenarios:
youtu.be/q4JMISOcJ0s?si=mila…
