The price action on Cenovus $CVE.TO today reminds me of Whitecap’s response to the Veren acquisition. Let me share some thoughts, as I may know a thing or two about what they acquired today and where it’s going and no, it’s definitely not for the tax pools. -One may think initially that the per-flowing cost is high, which is true, and that’s why Athabasca $ATH.TO management absolutely had to do it. We’re talking about more than 100,000 bbl/d, and yet I expect production on these assets to accelerate and double over the next 2–3 years, with Leismer at 40k bbl/d, Hangingstone optimized to 12k bbl/d, continued growth at Duvernay to 20k boe/d but likely to be divested...and greenfield development at Corner. -Corner is a wonderful excuse to showcase to the government and utilize the small greenfield royalty credits that the government was advancing, while continuing to optimize and brownfielding the FCCL assets. Corner is a high quality asset with wonderful geology. -Just like with the $MEG.TO acquisition, people assume an 80k bbl/d transaction. It wasn’t. Production at Christina Lake North is currently around 115,000 bbl/d, should be about 125,000 bbl/d by year-end in my view, and over the next two years should reach 150,000 bbl/d. Essentially, the per-flowing metric should be looked at differently when there is an inflection point in production growth. -Reminder that $CVE.TO was trading at $60k/flowing when it acquired $MEG.TO but the stock doubled since lol. -Now here is my key message : The main reason these assets were acquired is the central processing facilities, CPFs !! which are extremely expensive today. Getting an asset like this is very rare and would cost close to $2.4B in capex for Leismer, plus maybe three years of development. Look at the Leismer resource as an example in the picture : starting 2027 it can produce at 40,000 bbl/d for the next 50 years with no decline on the asset and a very low cost of supply. At netbacks of, say, $40 CAD, this whole transaction is paid for in less than 10 years. But remember, we also have Corner, Hangingstone, and Duvernay, plus production growth. So is this really such a horrible deal for Cenovus which likely to report close to $3.5B in FFF for Q3? -Although I am not currently affiliated with Cenovus, I am a former employee and do have subject-matter knowledge of these assets. They will do a wonderful job optimizing them and reducing their cost of supply. -I rarely share what I buy/sell and this is not investment advice, I am not an financial advisor and not qualified on anything related to finances but today I sold all my $ATH.TO shares and bought more $CVE.TO, as I believe this is a good deal for all parties, and investors have underappreciated the quality of Athabasca’s assets, as they have for the past five years. -Congratulations to all and thanks for following my account for many years, many of you understand how big today is for me. Good work friends. 🫡🪒

Me serving haters after they realize there is such a thing as subject-matter expertise. #SAGD 🫡🪒

The main reason why with CPF delivering 40k bbl/d for the next 50 years…. $ATH.TO $CVE.TO 🫡🪒

$ATH.TO $CVE.TO 🫡🪒