Trying to build wealth and learn something investing in listed real estate
Joined October 2011
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Wrote up $SITC ahead of tomorrow's distribution:
-Stub value of <$0.70 vs. $1.00+ liquidation value
- 25% - 35% ann. return assuming 18-24 month liquidation
-have to be careful around high G&A leakage, wind-down costs
realassetsvalue.substack.com…
2026 Q3 $BSRT earnings:
-Traded down ~6% today, at 5yr lows
-Maintained 2026 guidance
-Trades at ~6.5% implied cap rate, $150k per unit,
-Austin multifamily market "out of the woods"?
More here: substack.com/profile/4108088…
Maybe time to write-down that San Antonio HQ owned by $NLOP ...
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$FVR 2026 Q3 earnings highlights pretty brief. What's interesting is how much they've re-rated (see chart in linked note). They've gone from trading at a discount to all net lease peers to a premium to all but industry leader $ADC !
substack.com/@realassetsvalu…
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Some comments from $UDR on Texas markets:
-Dallas remained their strongest sunbelt market
-Austin saw positive NOI growth, blends improving but still negative (-5% to -1%-2%)
Bonus take: SF is still red hot with 9% revenue growth!
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$NLOP Q3 earnings:
-Sold a couple vacant / <1yr WALT properties
-Lease termination payment from APCO, which I think is U/C
-$1.50 distribution Dec 1st
Looks like a 14% - 19% IRR to me over 18 - 24 months.
More here: substack.com/profile/4108088…
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Wrote up $BXDC:
-Busted blind pool IPO
-Worst of both worlds: rates up, AI sentiment down
-Discount to cash provides downside protection and could enhance post-deployment returns
-Heads I win, tails I don't lose much?
realassetsvalue.substack.com…
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Logistea AB (LOGI.B) small sale of a development site at book value.
Not material financially, but a nice sign mgmt will be disciplined around capital allocation.
substack.com/@realassetsvalu…
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$ILPT down ~4% on a day REITs are up. FFO/share missing guidance / analyst estimates. Bad, right?
But miss was due to a change in accounting treatment (for part of the RMR tax, their incentive fee).
In fact, portfolio outperformed guidance LfL!
More: substack.com/profile/4108088…
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Some andecdotes from @CushWake Market Matters (one of the better economist-style CRE publications out there):
-Bid-ask spreads widening, retrades increasing due to rates
-Larger price impact on low-yielding deals, less on higher-yielding
-Retrades averaged 3-5% vs. 5-10% asks
Logistea was up ~9% Friday on news M2 (Rutger Arnhult, 2nd largest shareholder ) sold their entire stake.
Most bought by Nordika - who was and still is their largest shareholder. Now 22.6%.
Helps explain how bad price action has been - overhang of a large, motivated seller!
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2026 Q3 update: substack.com/@realassetsvalu…
Note highlighting attractive (Oct 1): substack.com/@realassetsvalu…
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Was this NYSE action foreseeable and $ELME just didn't give them a heads up or what went on here? Does anyone with more experience on this have a view?
An appropriate end to a liquidation where shareholder communication has been bungled throughout...
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Post distribution, $ELME spread to potential stub value has closed significantly base on pre-market prices. I’m taking the money and running!
Brief note up on Logistea AB (LOGI.B) - the Swedish micro-cap net lease industrial / logistics PropCo.
Will potential data center development upside get anyones' attention? Oh I forgot we don't like AI / DCs anymore, whoops... How about <10x FFO?
substack.com/@realassetsvalu…
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This is what Claude says. Agree or disagree? Weigh in on the poll!
As we enter Q3 earnings season, I'm asking for feedback on the way I've been doing updates on substack to my write ups...
Should updates to write ups (earnings, important news, etc.) be published as:
64%Notes (current approach)
0%In a subscriber chat
36%Weekly summary article
0%Other (write in comments)
22 votes • Final results 812
Wrote up some thoughts on what the move in rates over the last couple months "should" mean for US commercial real estate - is it really as simple as cap rates move with treasury yields?
realassetsvalue.substack.com…
Best possible outcome: clean sale, no retrade. Talk about good timing @Mr_Neutral_Man
Moving pieces are the last 2 properties and all-in costs (wind-down, CURB SSA G&A, CURB redev).
FWIW I think NLV is ~$3.90. Let's see where it trades tmw and if AH prices hold.
@JeffBeckMadDog
One of the more fun tea leave readings trades
$3.00 special divvy and then some stub value $SITC
Bought some after the news came out
Now a 13% position I believe which is really 2% after special dividend
Published this article at 2:19pm today
Won’t be able to replicate this call in the future with a 2 hour catalyst
hardassetmemo.substack.com/p…
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