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Joined January 2014
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Real Vision retweeted
Inflation is coming down fast now
The US nowcasts have crossed, and they did it fast.
At the start of October, our rising-growth probability for the US sat at 22%, the weakest reading across the five geographies we cover. It is 41% today.
The inflation side moved later and harder. On October 28 the rising-inflation probability was 58%, the high of the autumn. A week later it is 27%. The two lines crossed on October 31.
Three things did it. Brent fell from $118 to $104 in two sessions as Tehran opened the door to negotiations. The shipping and refining premiums were already coming out: tanker rates and gasoline cracks have rolled over from their highs. And the calendar turn to November starts dropping last year’s energy spike out of the base.
Our regime model has followed. QE Like, the corner where growth rises, inflation falls and liquidity is ample, is up to 35%. Lame Duck QE, the stagflation-flavoured regime that has dominated since September, is down to 13% from 28% a week ago.
The last time the US growth probability turned like this was March. It led the April rally by six weeks. Equity momentum has not followed yet this time, which is exactly why we watch it.
This is what Nowcast IQ is built for: daily growth, inflation and liquidity probabilities for the US, Euro zone, UK, China and India, plus the regime model and the positioning read, so you see the turn on the way in rather than in the next CPI print.
We are running a campaign this month: 30% off the first year for new subscribers.
Real Vision retweeted
ICYMI: @USComptroller Jonathan V. Gould sat down with @RealVision’s @AshBennington at the birthplace of capital markets, the New York Stock Exchange, to discuss the OCC’s implementation of the GENIUS Act. The OCC’s final rule establishes a clear, practical regulatory framework for payment stablecoin issuers, including strong standards for reserve backing, redemption and risk management. Learn more at OCC.gov/GENIUS
ALT Comptroller Jonathan V. Gould and Ash Bennington at the New York Stock Exchange.
ALT Comptroller Jonathan V. Gould is being interviewed by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington at the New York Stock Exchange.
Real Vision retweeted
In 2008 the world broke.
Since then governments have had to print to keep the system alive. Liquidity has risen relentlessly, assets have risen with it and wages have gone nowhere. The rich got richer, everyone else fell further behind.
None of it is random. Its all one code... The Everything Code.
Out today.
Real Vision retweeted
Trading is hard. Losing money while you learn makes it harder.
With the @RealVision Trading League, you trade with paper money but compete for real cash prizes. You can test your ideas without putting your own money on the line.
Give it a go:
realvision.com/your-future?u…
Real Vision retweeted
The big why "AI is not dotcom" slide-deck will be available later this week for members at @RealVision !
Sign up and join a month full of activity!
Real Vision retweeted
Got a bad trade that still haunts you?
Pick your tombstone and tell us the story in the comments.
no judgement… we all have one.
Real Vision retweeted
"If the war were not here, oil should be 70, 75."
Commodities strategist @MaleehaMBCC says the whole macro trade runs through oil. Cheaper oil means no inflation scare and no reason for Warsh to hike.
Her call: long tech, short energy.
Real Vision retweeted
Something cooking at @RealVision ; a better way to understand token value accrual, i.e., a quality screener. More to follow as I roll out more tools from the Helios Analytics crypto terminal to subscribers.
Real Vision retweeted
Crypto has been down this month, yet something beneath it looks different. Applications may finally deserve attention as viable investments.
For spot buyers, without the pre-TGE terms given to insiders and VCs, apps have been a diabolical trade. The average scored app lost 84% in 2022 then lagged smart-contract platforms in the bull market. Liquidity gathered around Bitcoin first, then Ethereum and larger platforms. A useful DeFi product was no guarantee of a rewarding token. Even if a value-accrual mechanism existed, the market didn't seem to care. Unlocks, cyclical casino demand and regulatory hostility undermined the investment case at every turn.
Now the old financial system needs new rails. The GENIUS Act and a more constructive SEC/CFTC approach give exchanges, banks, asset managers and lenders reason to explore on-chain markets. I see an open financial system taking shape, with new businesses run by code. Some applications are becoming serious businesses, with real revenues, operating metrics that outshine legacy firms, and I finally see capital discipline in parts of the sector.
Since March 2025, the top third of scored apps on my Quality screen gained 64.8% net while the average lost 10.6%. That is hard to ignore. But it's < 2 years of data in a 5-year backtest, not live proof of alpha; over the full period since 2022, the top third trails the average. We need to follow it live.
Ar @RealVision, I am integrating a new Helios Analytics dashboard for Alpha and Pro members this week. I think it will be essential for understanding what sits behind a token, alongside adoption, valuation, technicals and liquidity.
If you haven't already, join us here realvision.com/your-future
Real Vision retweeted
Everyone has a great trade in hindsight.
The interesting part of the @RealVision Trading League is seeing the ideas before we know how they turn out.
What’s the thesis? What’s the catalyst? What would invalidate it?
That’s the discussion I want to see.
realvision.com/your-future?u…
Real Vision retweeted
The democratisation of financial intelligence has driven pretty much everything Ive done.
For years I paid Bloomberg and Refinitiv to build business cycle indicators and dashboards... then AI arrived and I thought... why not just give it to people? Let them play with it, the same way a generation of investors got used to TradingView and technical analysis.
So I built the GMI dashboards on Real Vision myself. Every layer compresses down to one question: what do we need to do now?
I walk through all of it in this weeks episode of The Journeyman. Full episode on my YouTube.
As ever, please enjoy!
Real Vision retweeted
If you’re entering the @RealVision Trading League, here’s where I’d start:
What would tell you your trade is wrong?
It’s easy to build a bullish case for something you like. Knowing what would change your mind is usually the harder—and more useful—part. We've got the tools to help you succeed.
realvision.com/your-future?u…
Real Vision retweeted
DEBT AND DRONES
My geopolitical framework for the coming decades - only @RealVision
I have released a comprehensive guide to the decline of American hegemony, the rise of AI armies and the role of debt in the coming decades of world affairs.
You also get my introduction to how game theory helps investors navigate geopolitical events and turmoil.
The best part? It’s all FREE with @RealVision current campaign.
Link below 👇
Real Vision retweeted
You can talk the talk - now walk the walk.
I’d probably be looking at a few contrarian bets during the earnings season to win this.
It’s on. Our Trading League is officially open.
Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes.
All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it gets scored on how it plays out in the market.
And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account.
Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up.
Your future. Your move.
Real Vision retweeted
One screening tip if you're entering the @RealVision Trading League:
Find what outperformed while everything else got hit in the last week.
Strength in weakness is the hint. Leaders show themselves on the way down, not the way up.
All it takes is a free account. Up to $100K in prizes, open until 20 Nov.
nitter.cf/RealVision/status/2112…
It’s on. Our Trading League is officially open.
Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes.
All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it gets scored on how it plays out in the market.
And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account.
Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up.
Your future. Your move.
Real Vision retweeted
Everyday, I write these quality notes for members of @RealVision - its essentially an X feed full of good stuff, and without all of the AI slop.
The next 30 days is full of workshops, trading contests and more at Real Vision.
Get started for free today!
Real Vision retweeted
Festival of Trading starts in 2 days. Jam-packed educational extravaganza.
My session: my investment framework and rules of the road for active traders, incl. the art of position sizing. Plus ideas for the trading comp (Oct 19, $100K in prizes).
realvision.com/your-future
The @RealVision portfolios are one of the tools members get. My Pro crypto portfolio continues to outperform Bitcoin and the Nasdaq since inception and, importantly, this year through the crypto bear market due to selection and sizing the beat risk/return ops in an oversold market.
Sessions over the 2 days from all the strategists. Nothing to lose. Plenty to learn!
Real Vision retweeted
Imagine X, but only with genuine investing content. That’s @RealVision
No bots, no ads, no slop. Only good stuff.
Try for free now.
Real Vision retweeted
Nothing to lose, $100,000 in prizes up for grabs.
Trading League lets you learn from the best → test your trade ideas → get scored by the market.
Starts with live workshops with @RaoulGMI, @Jamie1Coutts and other top analysts.
Join free before Oct 15: realvision.com/your-future
Real Vision retweeted
Huge month coming up on Real Vision.
Our trading competition kicks off on October19th. All it takes to get in is a free account, and there's $100K in prizes up for grabs.
How it works: you can post up to three trade ideas on the platform between 19th October and 19th November. You don't need to put any money behind it, simply post the idea, and it gets scored on whatever plays out in the market.
And you won't be thrown in cold. Ahead of the competition we're running two days of live workshops, and everyone gets a free Trade Agent to help with their research.
Make a free account before the 15th and you catch all of it.