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It’s on. Our Trading League is officially open.
Post up to three trade ideas inside Real Vision between now and November 20 and compete for up to $100K in prizes.Â
All you need to get started is a free account. You don’t need to make any real trades, just post the idea, and it gets scored on how it plays out in the market.
And we’re not sending you in blind… Last week we ran two days of live workshops with some of the best in the game, all recorded and ready to watch with your free account.Â
Plus you get a free Trade Agent to use for the whole League. Type a ticker, let it do the digging, then post the idea that holds up.
Your future. Your move.
Every credit investor @AndreasSteno met last week told him the same thing: we’re full on AI capex.
Nobody is lining up to fund the sector, and the market is now pricing tech cheaper on forward terms than at the 2022 bottom.
He sees it as the opposite of 2000, when the same investors were shouting “give us more.”
Now the fastest-growing sector in history is hearing no.
$261 billion of data-center projects have been cancelled in 2026 through 3Q. The third quarter alone has nearly matched 2024 and 2025 combined.
Cancellations are rising while memory is running scarcer than GPUs and companies still can’t find the compute they need. The build is getting cut by the market before Congress has touched it.
Power and memory continue to be the bottleneck on the AI buildout.
Democrats have taken both chambers and the next seven weeks will decide what 2027 looks like for markets.
Here’s what to watch:
- Outgoing Congress is sitting until January 3 with key jobs left: funding past December 11, the debt limit, nominees, BAAJA (permitting) and CLARITY
- The current debt limit is at $41.1tn and Treasury could hit it as early as February 2027.
- Two shutdown dates to mark: December 11 and October 1, 2027.
- Fiscal policy is mostly locked. Broad new tariffs need Congress, and that route is closed until 2029.
- Energy prices are still the swing variable for 2028.
The vote has set the direction and the next weeks will set the price.
Week 2 of the Trading League is in: one Real Vision member went long Inovio Pharmaceuticals ($INO) into the FDA decision on INO-3107, and the call returned nearly 118%.
Entry was $0.91 on 26 October, take-profit $4, stop $0.50. The stock closed at $0.60 on decision day first, so the trade had to survive the catalyst drawdown before it paid.
Palvatar walks through the win, and the lesson: plan around your fill, assume a brutal drawdown is possible, and decide in advance when a catalyst gap is good enough.
Still two weeks left in the Trading League.
Free to join:
realvision.com/your-future?u…
24 hours since the Democrats took both chambers, here’s how markets have reacted to the results.
Oil has fallen more than 8%, WTI down to $88, with traders betting the result makes an Iran deal more likely.
The S&P 500 has closed up 1.6%, the Nasdaq 1.4% and the Dow 3% at 53,356.
Bitcoin has bounced back above $80,000 and gold has reclaimed $4,000.
Oil is still the trade that has moved most.
Democrats just took Congress. @MikkelRosenvold thinks the next two months could get more done than the last two years, while Trump still has a Republican Congress.
He’s watching 2027 appropriations and a debt ceiling raise, which takes a big risk off the table.
How much gets through before the clock runs out?
Everyone's waiting for the AI bubble to burst. @RaoulGMI says it can't.
Intelligence per joule is doubling every four and a half months, so if Google slows down for a year, Microsoft is three years ahead. Nobody in the race can afford to stop.
"It is the greatest discovery in the history of humanity, and the last discovery in all of humanity, because everything now gets discovered by AI."
The AI trade has been repricing all year, this chart shows where.
$NVDA is still the king, selling the most shovels in the AI gold rush.
The memory makers have become the best performers of 2026: $MU is up 201%, SK Hynix is up 137%. TSMC has pushed into the top six, $AMD has more than doubled.
Alphabet, Meta and Broadcom have slipped.
Chips and memory have won 2026. Which layer wins 2027?
Real Vision retweeted
Inflation is coming down fast now
The US nowcasts have crossed, and they did it fast.
At the start of October, our rising-growth probability for the US sat at 22%, the weakest reading across the five geographies we cover. It is 41% today.
The inflation side moved later and harder. On October 28 the rising-inflation probability was 58%, the high of the autumn. A week later it is 27%. The two lines crossed on October 31.
Three things did it. Brent fell from $118 to $104 in two sessions as Tehran opened the door to negotiations. The shipping and refining premiums were already coming out: tanker rates and gasoline cracks have rolled over from their highs. And the calendar turn to November starts dropping last year’s energy spike out of the base.
Our regime model has followed. QE Like, the corner where growth rises, inflation falls and liquidity is ample, is up to 35%. Lame Duck QE, the stagflation-flavoured regime that has dominated since September, is down to 13% from 28% a week ago.
The last time the US growth probability turned like this was March. It led the April rally by six weeks. Equity momentum has not followed yet this time, which is exactly why we watch it.
This is what Nowcast IQ is built for: daily growth, inflation and liquidity probabilities for the US, Euro zone, UK, China and India, plus the regime model and the positioning read, so you see the turn on the way in rather than in the next CPI print.
We are running a campaign this month: 30% off the first year for new subscribers.
GM Visionaries… here’s where the market stands midweek:
- Heavy earnings night ahead (Qualcomm, Arm, AppLovin, MercadoLibre).
- Record early-voter turnout. The policy direction from here touches energy, taxes and risk appetite into year-end.
- Power is still the bottleneck for the AI build-out. GE Vernova, Eaton and Vertiv all rallied yesterday.
- CoreWeave brought its first Danish data centre online.
What’s your focus into the weekend?
Markets haven’t moved since July because the liquidity hasn’t moved.
@RaoulGMI's explanation: the dollar's up, the curve's flatter and rates are higher, so the banking system is creating money too slowly to push anything higher.Â
He's calling for pretty crappy markets for the rest of the year.
China's AI stock index has nearly halved since July.
The STAR 50 fell another 3.8% today, and some of its biggest AI names are down 50 to 70% from their highs.
The selling has stayed with AI stocks, while Hong Kong rose and the wider market barely moved.
 Is China a warning for US AI stocks, or just a pause?
Real Vision retweeted
ICYMI: @USComptroller Jonathan V. Gould sat down with @RealVision’s @AshBennington at the birthplace of capital markets, the New York Stock Exchange, to discuss the OCC’s implementation of the GENIUS Act. The OCC’s final rule establishes a clear, practical regulatory framework for payment stablecoin issuers, including strong standards for reserve backing, redemption and risk management. Learn more at OCC.gov/GENIUS
ALT Comptroller Jonathan V. Gould and Ash Bennington at the New York Stock Exchange.
ALT Comptroller Jonathan V. Gould is being interviewed by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington at the New York Stock Exchange.
Week 2 of the Real Vision Trading League is done 🏆
Marco U called a binary biotech bet on Inovio, and it paid off with a 125% return and $5,000.
Two weeks down, still everything to play for...
So, Raoul had a few drinks and started giving away $100k…
Well, not quite, but you can still win it.
Join Real Vision for free, make some paper trades and compete for up to $100,000 in prizes.Â
More info below.
Could a new Congress or administration tear up crypto's new rules?Â
@perkinscr97 doesn't think so.
.@AndreasSteno on why he doesn’t buy the dot-com comparison.
GFC and COVID included, he can’t recall a market this skeptical of a sector that is delivering.
The fundamentals, he says, still look great.