Jarrod

We now have a lot more evidence about the election. Although a few key races remaining outstanding, it's now clear it's a Democratic wave. A few thoughts: 1. The Dems won the House as expected. But by more than polls/models predicted. It will be about 245-250 seats, rather than 235-40. Among other things, this means the DSA contingent will NOT be essential marginal votes, and thus probably can't hold soon-to-be House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries hostage. 2. In the Senate, the Dems now have 53 seats, and will likely end up with 55-56, once we get results from Michigan, Nebraska, Mississippi, and Alaska. They won in places like South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa, which - until recently -few thought were even possible. And they won some big races (e.g. Texas) by bigger than expected margins. The fact that Mississippi is on the list of close races (with a Black Democrat within a point of the Republican incumbent) is incredible. 3. Survey data shows tariffs and to a lesser extent immigration played important roles in the result. I hope this means policy shifts on those enormously important issues, and that Dems will work to reverse what Trump has done and pare back executive power here. 4. Trump said the election should be about him, and he got his way! His unpopularity and that of many of his policies (especially tariffs and the War in Iran) was decisive. He made the Democratic Party Great Again, and he alone could do it. 5. The results on this are not fully in. But it looks like some of the GOP gerrymanders (e.g. - Texas and North Carolina) may turn into "dummymanders." In a wave election, gerrymanders can work to the disadvantage of the party that did them, because they thin out that party's margins in some previously safe seats in order to transfer those voters to seats held by the opposite party. 6. It is notable that Trump - so far - said he was going to accept the results, rather than try to challenge them, or do things like declare an emergency, send troops to seize ballots, and the like. But I won't feel fully secure on this for some time yet. 7. I hope this means MAGA will go into terminal decline and lose its grip on the GOP. But it is far too early to predict that. To be clear, we don't just need a repudiation of Trump. We need a repudiation of his deeply evil agenda on immigration, trade, civil liberties, and undermining the Western alliance, among other things. Not clear to what extent Republicans will be willing to do that. 8. While I think it's good Dems won (at least at the federal level), I still have a long list of reservations about that party and its agenda. They are less bad than Trump. But that's a low standard of comparison. And I still worry about the potential further growth of the DSA socialist wing. Even most more moderate Democrats support way too much regulation and spending, and are indifferent to the looming fiscal crisis facing the nation (on that latter point, they are much like Republicans). Tonight was a good night compared to the alternative. But we still face huge challenges, and still have two badly flawed major parties. And we are still beset by a number of structural flaws of democracy, such as widespread voter ignorance.