Founder of @harecrypta | Researcher with Alpha | Trader @lighter_xyz @variational_io @polymarket
Joined March 2021
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13x.
That is the light gap between a winter day outdoors and your normal indoor life
10297 lux against 752.
- I used to blame the grey sky for the four weeks between the last leaf and the first snow.
- I read the research for the fourth piece in my Therapy series and it disagreed with me on almost everything.
The sky is fine.
- The ground is off. Wet leaves reflect 5 to 15% of daylight, fresh snow about 90%, and a day with snow on the ground is 5.7 times brighter.
- The darkest weeks of the year at eye level are now, not January.
The fear is overblown too.
- 34294 people: zero link between depression and season.
- 18353 people, five years of vitamin D: a 0.01 point difference in mood.
Half of cryptans moved to the beach to escape this.
What they escaped was an indoor life at 55°N.
That is fixable with a door.
Protocol, cautions and 22 sources inside. 👇
So that's our life now:
home to the hospital and back again.
GM X!
Looking at my Variational points, the cat, the apples, nature, such is my contrast and urge these days.
Two events in favor of DEXs:
the Binance hack and the news about tradexyz.
✅ My theory, straight
- CZ made a deal with the US to make way for other beneficiaries of this crypto war.
A pardon in exchange for handing Binance over, piece by piece, and yesterday’s hack is part of that handover, not an accident.
- Nov 2023
CZ pleads guilty, $4.3b, a US monitor inside.
- May 2025:
$2b from Abu Dhabi settled in USD1, the Trump family stablecoin.
- Oct 2025:
$19b cascade on Oct 10, the pardon on Oct 23.
- Oct 2026:
the hack and CZ says I no longer manage Binance.
One October is luck. Three dates in a row look like a schedule. Who is Binance being handed to?
✅ The smart hacker knew Tether terms, put $60m $USDT into Aave and took $ETH
-tether freezes addresses, not tokens inside a pool. A lending pool is a mixer with a 26% fee. $AAVE fell 11% anyway.
✅ NYSE’s owner took a stake in tradexyz for US perps on Hyperliquid rails, Druckenmiller in, Musk replying interesting.
Kraken’s parent chose the same rails on Monday. The rail that broke was the centralized one.
GM X!
Looking at my Variational points, the cat, the apples, nature, such is my contrast and urge these days.
Two events in favor of DEXs:
the Binance hack and the news about tradexyz.
✅ My theory, straight
- CZ made a deal with the US to make way for other beneficiaries of this crypto war.
A pardon in exchange for handing Binance over, piece by piece, and yesterday’s hack is part of that handover, not an accident.
- Nov 2023
CZ pleads guilty, $4.3b, a US monitor inside.
- May 2025:
$2b from Abu Dhabi settled in USD1, the Trump family stablecoin.
- Oct 2025:
$19b cascade on Oct 10, the pardon on Oct 23.
- Oct 2026:
the hack and CZ says I no longer manage Binance.
One October is luck. Three dates in a row look like a schedule. Who is Binance being handed to?
✅ The smart hacker knew Tether terms, put $60m $USDT into Aave and took $ETH
-tether freezes addresses, not tokens inside a pool. A lending pool is a mixer with a 26% fee. $AAVE fell 11% anyway.
✅ NYSE’s owner took a stake in tradexyz for US perps on Hyperliquid rails, Druckenmiller in, Musk replying interesting.
Kraken’s parent chose the same rails on Monday. The rail that broke was the centralized one.
GM X!
The most pleasant and wonderful sound, which delights my ear in anticipation of the wind and speed!
Some interesting
✅ Did you know the only live alternative tonight is a hike?
FED 88% hold, 12% hike, 0% cut.
- Nobody is pricing the thing crypto keeps waiting for.
✅ Israel voted on Tuesday and the market flipped twice.
- Before the vote Polymarket had
Eisenkot at 55%,
Netanyahu at 29%,
$55m traded.
Exit polls:
Likud is the largest party, the bloc is short of 61 in most of them. Netanyahu jumped to 48%.
Brazil on Sunday, Israel on Tuesday. Twice in a week the market priced its own crowd, not the ballot.
✅ Who prices Nvidia when Nasdaq sleeps?
One arb desk measured it.
- Binance stock tokens move first.
- Lighter follows 50 to 200ms later,
- Lighter RH 250 to 350ms,
- Entropy about 800ms.
In session Binance sits 50 to 60ms behind Nasdaq. Market makers run private lines New York to Tokyo.
- Entropy listed $NVDA at 25x yesterday.
The first 800ms of every move already belong to someone.
+62 Variational points this week.
(62*50 = $3100 current OTC price)
The same strategy
+29 Variational points this week.
(29*40 = $1160 current OTC price)
1. The same strategy, but Variational has adjusted the leverage for many pairs to 10x.
2. Just look for trending coins, these coins were moving well along a mini-trend
$Q long
$US100 short
It’s rather strange that you haven’t joined this journey yet. (OMNIREN code)
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
Even after the Binance hack and other exploits, Bitcoin is holding steady, $BTC is still around $79k-80k
$HYPE is even poised to hit ATH soon.
In the past, we would have seen a drop of at least 30%, but not anymore.
What else can we do but keep believing in crypto, otherwise, what was the point of these past 16 years?
The math in trading is simple
- below $100 $HYPE is expensive.
- above $100 $HYPE becomes cheap and it keeps going, just like Solana.
Once $SOL crossed $100, it took off all the way to $240.
That’s how it works.
I don’t know about you, but my journey into the US stock market seriously began via Variational.
I’ve genuinely started to take a growing interest in stocks, moving beyond just crypto.
A perfect example:
yesterday, I received an alert from my The Sentinel regarding a surge in trading volume for Oracle $ORCL, along with the reasons behind it, sourced from X.
Moving forward, I’ll be paying much closer attention to scheduled corporate earnings report dates.
It will be really cool if they end up adding more than 700 US and Asia markets with.
That will be sufficient for liquidity to flow and for finding new gems.
I don’t know about you, but my journey into the US stock market seriously began via Variational.
I’ve genuinely started to take a growing interest in stocks, moving beyond just crypto.
A perfect example:
yesterday, I received an alert from my The Sentinel regarding a surge in trading volume for Oracle $ORCL, along with the reasons behind it, sourced from X.
Moving forward, I’ll be paying much closer attention to scheduled corporate earnings report dates.
It will be really cool if they end up adding more than 700 US and Asia markets with.
That will be sufficient for liquidity to flow and for finding new gems.
Variational alpha $VAR by Aleo Research
✅ Did you know a zero fee exchange can earn more than a fee exchange?
Per dollar of positions traders paid
- Variational 14.3% a year in Q3,
- Hyperliquid 10.4%.
Same take rate, 2.35 vs 2.40 bps, but positions turn over 1.67 times a day vs 1.19.
✅ Swaps took 50.3% of September volume in their first month, 16 of them by Oct 14.
They still close daily at 17:00 ET. 24/7 swaps are Phase 3.
The CFTC meets Dec 15 to discuss 24/7 for all US derivatives.
Who gets there first, the dealer or the regulator?
✅ The weekly pool stayed at 150,000 points all quarter while monthly volume more than doubled.
At $1b the Q3 treasury pace buys back 2.1% of the token a year.
$HYPE and $LIT 0.7%
$ASTER 0.8%
My Sentinel (live alerts ) based on Variational, HL, Lighter and Nansen data
telegram.me/harecrypta_diges…
Variational alpha $VAR by Aleo Research
✅ Did you know a zero fee exchange can earn more than a fee exchange?
Per dollar of positions traders paid
- Variational 14.3% a year in Q3,
- Hyperliquid 10.4%.
Same take rate, 2.35 vs 2.40 bps, but positions turn over 1.67 times a day vs 1.19.
✅ Swaps took 50.3% of September volume in their first month, 16 of them by Oct 14.
They still close daily at 17:00 ET. 24/7 swaps are Phase 3.
The CFTC meets Dec 15 to discuss 24/7 for all US derivatives.
Who gets there first, the dealer or the regulator?
✅ The weekly pool stayed at 150,000 points all quarter while monthly volume more than doubled.
At $1b the Q3 treasury pace buys back 2.1% of the token a year.
$HYPE and $LIT 0.7%
$ASTER 0.8%
Market is dead
Bitcoin on the one-minute timeframe during a Fed announcement +-400 points in $BTC
Such is the power of a sideways market, kangaroo in effect 🦘
A fight to the death for $80k on $BTC
Kangaroo vs bears! 🐻 vs 🦘
The bulls are nowhere near, grazing somewhere behind the mountains, they don't even want to join this battle. 🤣
GM X!
The most pleasant and wonderful sound, which delights my ear in anticipation of the wind and speed!
Some interesting
✅ Did you know the only live alternative tonight is a hike?
FED 88% hold, 12% hike, 0% cut.
- Nobody is pricing the thing crypto keeps waiting for.
✅ Israel voted on Tuesday and the market flipped twice.
- Before the vote Polymarket had
Eisenkot at 55%,
Netanyahu at 29%,
$55m traded.
Exit polls:
Likud is the largest party, the bloc is short of 61 in most of them. Netanyahu jumped to 48%.
Brazil on Sunday, Israel on Tuesday. Twice in a week the market priced its own crowd, not the ballot.
✅ Who prices Nvidia when Nasdaq sleeps?
One arb desk measured it.
- Binance stock tokens move first.
- Lighter follows 50 to 200ms later,
- Lighter RH 250 to 350ms,
- Entropy about 800ms.
In session Binance sits 50 to 60ms behind Nasdaq. Market makers run private lines New York to Tokyo.
- Entropy listed $NVDA at 25x yesterday.
The first 800ms of every move already belong to someone.
GM X!
Moscow Jungles today...
✅ Anthropic filed its S-1 yesterday, ticker $ANT.
- $16.3b revenue in H1. $80.7b net loss, $72.4b of it is its own convertible notes repriced higher as the valuation rose.
✅ Wednesday stacks everything.
- Fed at 14:00 ET, Alphabet and Microsoft after the close, Amazon on Thursday.
- Variational runs an earnings week contest on 13 stock markets, $18k in prizes.
- Omni passes dividends through on stock perps. The only short is OLP:
it pays, then collects on the hedge. Dividends are plumbing, the spread is the business.
✅ Lighter is the pre-market for everyone else’s token.
$VAR first, now $XTEN, with no price feed from Extended.
Vlad files for a CFTC DCM in November.
Can a US licensed exchange list a token that does not exist yet?
Just compare a private hospital in Moscow with one in Perm that treats cancer patients.
Nowadays, private medical care is extremely expensive, very expensive.
Living is costly, but that’s what matters.
GM X!
Moscow Jungles today...
✅ Anthropic filed its S-1 yesterday, ticker $ANT.
- $16.3b revenue in H1. $80.7b net loss, $72.4b of it is its own convertible notes repriced higher as the valuation rose.
✅ Wednesday stacks everything.
- Fed at 14:00 ET, Alphabet and Microsoft after the close, Amazon on Thursday.
- Variational runs an earnings week contest on 13 stock markets, $18k in prizes.
- Omni passes dividends through on stock perps. The only short is OLP:
it pays, then collects on the hedge. Dividends are plumbing, the spread is the business.
✅ Lighter is the pre-market for everyone else’s token.
$VAR first, now $XTEN, with no price feed from Extended.
Vlad files for a CFTC DCM in November.
Can a US licensed exchange list a token that does not exist yet?
Verified Variational and Lighter on Kaito
Fun facts
- 15 place on Kaito Variational leaderboard (not a lot of ppl are verified)
- Lighter referral Volume $1.8b
Plural partnerships, yes.
- On Variational Omni you never trade against a dealer
OLP is the sole counterparty and hedges outside.
-On Pro there is no OLP at all
a fund posts an RFQ, several dealers quote, both sides lock $USDC in a settlement pool, risk stays bilateral. Pro cannot launch with one partner.
It needs a quoting consortium, anchor takers and someone to clear and finance OLP's hedges.
- The same settlement pools serve both products: Omni, Pro and TradFi in one breath.
My suggestions
✅ A dealer consortium that quotes Pro and feeds Omni's swaps
DRW/Cumberland
IMC
Flow Traders
Optiver
Chicago and Amsterdam, the cities Lucas named
✅ Anchor takers where the pain is Asia, where OTC still trades by phone.
The 2025 strategic round (Mirana, Caladan, Zoku) was already described as Pro design partners.
✅ One clearing and financing counterparty behind OLP Marex
StoneX
or a bank swap desk.
✅ A bank, if any, as a closed pilot
Citi for on-chain FX, Goldman for OTC options.
✅ 100% of treasury revenue to buybacks,
Pro is the revenue and a dealer seat priced in $VAR explains why the 50% team and investor split is still unpublished.
The dealer and the investor are the same name
GM X!
Moscow Jungles today...
✅ Anthropic filed its S-1 yesterday, ticker $ANT.
- $16.3b revenue in H1. $80.7b net loss, $72.4b of it is its own convertible notes repriced higher as the valuation rose.
✅ Wednesday stacks everything.
- Fed at 14:00 ET, Alphabet and Microsoft after the close, Amazon on Thursday.
- Variational runs an earnings week contest on 13 stock markets, $18k in prizes.
- Omni passes dividends through on stock perps. The only short is OLP:
it pays, then collects on the hedge. Dividends are plumbing, the spread is the business.
✅ Lighter is the pre-market for everyone else’s token.
$VAR first, now $XTEN, with no price feed from Extended.
Vlad files for a CFTC DCM in November.
Can a US licensed exchange list a token that does not exist yet?
GM X!
We can stay within a range, both bulls and bears are weak, while the kangaroo is stronger than ever!
Did you know that a kangaroo symbolizes a sideways market?
✅ Brazil voted on Sunday.
- Polymarket had Flávio at 78% with $189m traded while the poll average was 51.2 to 48.8.
- Lula won.
- The market didn't read the polls better, it read its own crowd.
✅ That is the interesting weekend gap.
- Robinhood Chain says almost 60% of stock token trading happens outside Wall Street hours, $532m on weekends in one month.
- Variational swaps still close on Friday. Why and when?
✅ Extended prints first this autumn
- 30% to points, tokenomics Oct 31, token in Nov.
- its $ per point becomes the benchmark for Variational OTC
Read a bit more on labour market vs AI
what I found that’s interesting
11 days.
- That is what Claude needed to formalize Fermat’s Last Theorem in Lean, with dozens of agents and about 6b output tokens.
- Experts expected years.
The mathematicians are not asking society to stop that. - 28 Fields Medallists signed against unverified results announced as PR.
- Tao uses AI every day and signed anyway.
- Their complaint is the trade
the lab keeps the announcement, the field inherits the unpaid checking.
Nobody is hiring the young. It's real issue.
- Calling that entitled gets the subsidy backwards and the labor market runs the same trade.
- Nobody is firing anyone yet, nobody is hiring the young, a 19% relative gap for 22 to 25 year olds in the most exposed jobs, entry postings down 7.5% while senior postings grow 14.7%.
- Firms keep the gain, society keeps the broken first rung.
- Own the robots fixes it for one person, the top 1% already hold 51% of US equities.
I write the AI specs and the refusalsand I own the outcome.
That job exists while a human keeps the right to stop the machine.
my 2 cents on mathematicians crashing out over AI:
AI doesn't stop you from enjoying math. What's actually happening is that it's threatening your sense of being useful. While I understand this fear, it's also entitled to expect society to stop technological progress, preserve your livelihood and relevance just because you enjoy your work.
Math isn't special here. It already happened and will happen for many more professions, it's just that most mathematicians made their entire identity about math, so it's unsurprising that they're more upset.
Ultimately, all these professional crashouts share the same underlying question society needs to solve: how do we secure people's livelihoods and build meaningful lives when human labor is no longer needed?
Personally, I find it very easy to accept that my work might no longer be needed and to find meaning elsewhere. (have these people ever done any introspection or read a philosophy book, lol?)
A fight to the death for $80k on $BTC
Kangaroo vs bears! 🐻 vs 🦘
The bulls are nowhere near, grazing somewhere behind the mountains, they don't even want to join this battle. 🤣
Hayes is wrong!
Everyone is expecting $BTC dump below 80k, but the strength of the sideways movement and the passive inertia of market are very powerful.
I still hold out hope that even if a war with Iran breaks out, we along with the altcoins will manage to hold the 80k level.
As for me, I’m loading up on more at this moment.
GM X!
We can stay within a range, both bulls and bears are weak, while the kangaroo is stronger than ever!
Did you know that a kangaroo symbolizes a sideways market?
✅ Brazil voted on Sunday.
- Polymarket had Flávio at 78% with $189m traded while the poll average was 51.2 to 48.8.
- Lula won.
- The market didn't read the polls better, it read its own crowd.
✅ That is the interesting weekend gap.
- Robinhood Chain says almost 60% of stock token trading happens outside Wall Street hours, $532m on weekends in one month.
- Variational swaps still close on Friday. Why and when?
✅ Extended prints first this autumn
- 30% to points, tokenomics Oct 31, token in Nov.
- its $ per point becomes the benchmark for Variational OTC
GM X!
The First Frost 🥶
- Is this the end for crypto, now that even a16z is trimming its portfolio and looking away from the sector?
- Everyone is waiting for the cycles to return, but what’s actually happening?
- Almost nothing, just local events, a few ups and downs and mostly sideways movement.
- Are you still expecting any life-changing involvements from crypto, dex perps, from meme or NFTs?
- Personally my main focus is only Variational and the periodically trading of memecoins play that manages to take off.
Hayes is wrong!
Everyone is expecting $BTC dump below 80k, but the strength of the sideways movement and the passive inertia of market are very powerful.
I still hold out hope that even if a war with Iran breaks out, we along with the altcoins will manage to hold the 80k level.
As for me, I’m loading up on more at this moment.
Plural partnerships, yes.
- On Variational Omni you never trade against a dealer
OLP is the sole counterparty and hedges outside.
-On Pro there is no OLP at all
a fund posts an RFQ, several dealers quote, both sides lock $USDC in a settlement pool, risk stays bilateral. Pro cannot launch with one partner.
It needs a quoting consortium, anchor takers and someone to clear and finance OLP's hedges.
- The same settlement pools serve both products: Omni, Pro and TradFi in one breath.
My suggestions
✅ A dealer consortium that quotes Pro and feeds Omni's swaps
DRW/Cumberland
IMC
Flow Traders
Optiver
Chicago and Amsterdam, the cities Lucas named
✅ Anchor takers where the pain is Asia, where OTC still trades by phone.
The 2025 strategic round (Mirana, Caladan, Zoku) was already described as Pro design partners.
✅ One clearing and financing counterparty behind OLP Marex
StoneX
or a bank swap desk.
✅ A bank, if any, as a closed pilot
Citi for on-chain FX, Goldman for OTC options.
✅ 100% of treasury revenue to buybacks,
Pro is the revenue and a dealer seat priced in $VAR explains why the 50% team and investor split is still unpublished.
The dealer and the investor are the same name