Replication Markets (@ReplicationMkts) header
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Replication Markets

@ReplicationMkts

Reliable research replicates...you can bet on it!

 Herndon, Virginia, USA
replicationmarkets.com
Joined April 2019
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Also, @michaelbg01 has nearly finished a manuscript on the preprint forecasts -- using only the surveys for clarity. And we are collaborating with @replicats on correlates of good forecasting. (Expecting to mostly corroborate earlier work, but worth a check.)
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@ReplicationMkts forecasters: Now only six covid reprint prizes left to claim: DMS, mudiku, Poison, davison, r6XqxtYY1V, josephharvey6. replicationmarkets.com/index…
Screenshot of the 6 remaining winner usernames.

ALT Screenshot of the 6 remaining winner usernames.

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@ReplicationMkts folks: Anyone know these forecasters? They haven't responded to our prize emails. In other news, catch the Economist article on mainstream prediction markets: economist.com/finance-and-ec…
DMS, mudiku, Poison, davison, r6XqxtYY1V, josephharvey6, KRH, reMarket:Subject888

ALT DMS, mudiku, Poison, davison, r6XqxtYY1V, josephharvey6, KRH, reMarket:Subject888

9 preprint market winners yet to claim your prize - please check your filters for email from [email protected]: DMS mudiku Poison davidoj r6XqxtYY1V josephharvey6 Troof_ KRH reMarketSubject88
Replication Markets (@ReplicationMkts) profile pictureReplication Markets@ReplicationMkts3 Feb 2022
Announcing COVID-19 Preprint Market Winners: replicationmarkets.com/index… We had 54 winners, with prizes from $16 to $1,269. Congratulations all, and thanks again to all forecasters. And to @FetzerFrFund for the prizes. @ReplicationMkts
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Troof_ claimed! And then there were 8.
Announcing COVID-19 Preprint Market Winners: replicationmarkets.com/index… We had 54 winners, with prizes from $16 to $1,269. Congratulations all, and thanks again to all forecasters. And to @FetzerFrFund for the prizes. @ReplicationMkts
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@ReplicationMkts forecasters: We're resolving the COVID-19 *Preprint* markets. Have a look at proposed resolutions before we finalize prizes. replicationmarkets.com/index…
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These were the forecasts on future citation and publication for 400 popular COVID-19 preprints. These prizes were funded by @FetzerFrFund, not DARPA SCORE. Survey prizes were paid in Nov. 2020. Markets had to wait for resolutions in Sep. 2021.
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Resolving COVID-400 markets. Anyone have Journal Impact Factors (or similar) for: * Communications Medicine * Int'l J. Research in Medical Sciences * J. of Rare Diseases and Orphan Drugs * Lancet Microbe * Lancet Regional Health - Europe * The Innovation
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Prizes, finally! We are pleased at last to announce the *market* prizes for Replication Markets: 258 winners split $142K, with 121 questions resolving. (We are contacting the winners directly.) replicationmarkets.com/index…
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Congratulations to all winners. Special shout to our Top10, by username: BradleyJBaker meaning.mosaic.curtain unipedal mVranka physwiz mbulatay sattuma ejorgenson CPM Nokta (See blog post for the full list.)
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Thanks team! JacobsConnects, Harvard, Massey, UCSC, SSE, Gold Brand, and more! Twitters: @pretzelsbaby @michaelbg01 @yangl1u @thatMikeBishop @bgoldfedder @DViganola @LyndaOvington @flxhlzmstr More on our team page: replicationmarkets.com/index…
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Almost prizes ... but not quite. Rounds 1-11 are good, but co-pilot checks today found a slight discrepancy a Round 0 merge. I'm sure it will be embarrassingly obvious on Monday.
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Good news - we got extra resolutions from DARPA last week. About 100 regular + 30 covid resolutions now. Doing final prize calculations review today/tomorrow. On track for Friday prize announcement.
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Progress on @ReplicationMkts prizes: Estimate ~126 winners in Rounds 1-10 in 66 replication experiments. Verifying, & doing R11 + R0. replicationmarkets.com/index…
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Anyone have favorite references re: doing meta-analysis well?
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More metascience from a replication forecaster!
Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@thatMikeBishop) profile pictureMike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸
@thatMikeBishop3 Dec 2020
Remember this post getting lots of retweets: fantasticanachronism.com/202… Well, @AlvaroDeMenard has a new #metascience essay I think is just as good even if it's not as provocative. fantasticanachronism.com/202…
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This is crucial. So precisely how do we change these incentives? Pressure grant-makers and journal editors to create open-science requirements?
Laura K. Nelson | @LauraNelson@mastodon.social (@LauraK_Nelson) profile pictureLaura K. Nelson | @[email protected]@LauraK_Nelson1 Dec 2020
Replying to @LauraK_Nelson
The biggest roadblock? As a junior scholar, I take on all the risk in doing this - loads of time and effort and potential critique - with virtually no reward. The incentive structure must change. Open science / open scholarship benefits everyone. Let's reward that work 🙏
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If you'd like to get occasional invitations to participate in our research then sign-up here: replicationmarkets.com/index… Note that even current participants need to have opted-in.
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