ReversionDesk

what this account actually does. 📊 tracking S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow. short-term levels, simple setups, day and swing trades. no predictions, no "buy this now" calls, just the spots where things look stretched and might turn. less noise, more levels. less opinion, more setups. we want to play both sides here, bulls and bears. 🐂🐻 the tape doesn't care which one you are, so neither do we. we'll sometimes look over the edge too, other stretched charts worth a glance even outside the usual names. always monitoring the bigger picture in the background too, yields, oil, crypto, VIX, whatever event is moving the tape. 👀 20+ years watching this stuff, but that means nothing if you're not reading the tape fresh every single day. charts drop 2-3x/day with clear levels you can hold us to later. some original TradingView setups, some quick reads when something breaks. sometimes trading psychology too, 20+ years of collected scars and anecdotal evidence, take it or leave it. charts and opinions welcome in the replies, just no bullies. 🚫 no bias, no ego. just the tape. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DJI $BTC $VIX #fintwit #trading

overnight action. a lot of Iran headlines yesterday took oil down 6-7%, with the US administration trying to show voters an exit. 🇮🇷 overnight, though, the US reportedly struck Qeshm Island. credibility is mostly gone, and markets are not pumping on all this noise from Trump, Vance and the news outlets. futures are slightly red overnight, and Apple dipped about 3% after a weak margin outlook. 🍎 today is election day. 🇺🇸 we will explore levels for a potential reversion in the Qs soon. are you sitting on your hands today? 👇

the tape is the ultimate truth. oil dumping: crude down about 7%, its biggest one-day drop since July. yields falling: the 10-year is down about 5 bps to ~4.9%. Trump serving multiple tacos, with "no rush" on Iran strikes. and yet equities can't catch a bid. the S&P 500 went from +1% to red, the Nasdaq from +1.3% to -1%. that's weak. really weak. is there something bigger going on on Wall Street?

Midday check. US futures jumped into the open as Brent dropped more than 5%. the Qs and $SPX are already fading about half of those gains. all of this on hopes around the Iran talks, even though Iran's demands appear unchanged since the MoU fell apart and the talks ended with no breakthrough. for now, only a technical bounce. do you buy this "no news" rally? 👇

Monday. US futures are green and oil is down, with Brent falling about 3-4% on hopes around the Iran talks. talks with Iran's mediators are apparently still ongoing, while IRGC rhetoric stays hostile. two more tankers reportedly blew up on mines, the US military buildup continues, and Iran expects further strikes from the US and Israel. despite all of that, we have tons of earnings this week, starting with Apple today after the close. will there be an announcement before the midterms tomorrow? we do not predict. we watch the tape. for now we see a bounce back, nothing more. do you think the bottom is in? 👇

Sunday check-in. futures open tonight. crypto is often a good indicator, and it is trending slightly positive over the weekend, with Bitcoin up about 1% to ~$78K after Friday's drop. some positive signs around the Iran talks, with Tehran floating a 2-day plan to reopen Hormuz, but still nothing tangible. we have been at this point multiple times before. will the late bounce in US equities from Friday's session persist on Monday?

$AAPL. earnings on Monday after the close. will Apple follow in the footsteps of Alphabet and Amazon and get hit after earnings? it’s the best performing Mag7 stock this year, up about 28%, so the bar is high. two daily candles briefly traded outside the Bollinger Bands and closed back inside, accompanied by a bearish divergence on the daily RSI. the uptrend is still in place, but on a fragile setup. Friday’s long wick touched the lower channel line before buyers stepped in. as we are always looking for reversions, Apple might offer a bearish setup. bulls want to see a break through 345. is the tape pointing to a dump on Monday?

$QQQ weekend update. what a week. Alphabet had its worst day ever as a public company after earnings, down more than 12% and losing $475B in market value. the stock is now about 30% off its all-time high, with free cash flow negative for the second quarter in a row. Amazon dropped as much as 10% after hours but recovered most of it. Microsoft trimmed its capex forecast and Alphabet held its guidance, with Q3 capex at both coming in below estimates. first sign of a shift in the AI buildout? the Qs closed the week almost 10% off the ATH, right at the edge of correction territory. 700 was lost with a second gap down, but a nice bounce in the last two hours finished off the week. was this just a technical bounce or are we done... for now? Apple reports Monday and the midterms arrive Tuesday. buckle up!

Nasdaq-100 touchdown on the EMA 200 on the daily. down about 3% today after the Amazon and Intel earnings, now roughly 9% off the October 6 high. a 10% drawdown would put it in correction territory around 28,200. will the 200 EMA hold? where are you drawing your line in the sand?

Recap & Earnings Amazon follows Alphabet with a double miss on revenue and EPS, down +7% after hours. Intel is also down about >10% after hours on weak guidance. the AI buildout and capex rampage is coming under scrutiny, with negative free cash flow at both Alphabet and Amazon. what nobody talks about: yields. PCE accelerated to 3.6% YoY and GDP beat at 3.4%, yet the 10-year slipped back below 5% and the 2-year dropped about 8 bps. is the bond market pricing in a growth scare, or even a recession?

$AMZN nuked double miss.

This is it? Did $MSFT and $GOOG report lower then anticipated capex? One has to be very cautious as soon as the spend ends. the bullrun ends.

FED. the Fed held rates at 3.75-4.00%, as expected, but in a split 10-2 vote. the statement says inflation "remains elevated", upgrades the economy to "strong" and hints that further hikes may come Warsh said politics played no role, six days before the midterms. yields tick higher again on the news, with the 10-year back above 5%. the bond market doesn't like a hold while inflation is elevated and Brent sits around $115. December hike odds are still above 75%. equities were not significantly moved by the decision. are yields coming back to be the main theme?

$QQQ. strong day for the bulls yesterday, with chips up for a third straight session. followed by a big jump overnight in the Kospi, with SK hynix posting record results. in the background, though, oil is not coming down: Brent is back around $116, closing in on the $120 mark. stalemate in Israel’s elections, with Netanyahu likely staying on as caretaker PM while coalition talks drag on. today is a big day with the Fed decision and Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the close. is it a day to just watch and wait for the tape to play out?

Netanyahu‘s party leading in initial results. Israel sticking to his strong hand. Travel with caution. ⚠️ Oil on the rise instantly.

$NFLX putting a candle 🕯️in the window here. Daily and weekly dropping out of the bollinger bands. Can at least $60 provide some support?

$QQQ follow-up. good start to the week for the bulls, with a relief jump especially in the AI/semi cluster - after Anthropic’s IPO filing sparked a rally in chips bullish divergences on the 1h are resolving quite nicely, with EMA10 crossing SMA20 from below. 700 support level now confirmed. small bull flag building this afternoon. elections in Israel tomorrow, and more earnings plus the Fed coming up. can bulls push into the gap and attack the 720 area, or is this just another bounce?

$CRWV. lots of talk about $CRWV lately. over 70% off the all-time high, and down 37% in October alone. its bonds aren’t helping: the 9.75% 2031 notes, issued at par, now yield around 15%, more than 1,000 bps over Treasuries. RSI nearly as oversold as in Dec 2025. daily looking for support in the $50 range, with no reversion signals yet. on the smaller timeframes like the 1h, first divergences are showing up, but there is no real capitulation candle to observe. when can $CRWV catch a bid?

$QQQ. looking ahead to the week after two brutal weeks for tech. the Qs are roughly 8% off the ATH. oil and AI debt still the main topics, with Brent settling close to $120 on Friday. even a sharp drop in yields didn’t help. is there fear of a recession? however, building some bullish divergences in the RSI on the 1h chart. the area around 700 is a nice support. lots of earnings this week, with Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday, plus the Fed decision. can bulls push the index back to the 720/725 area for some relief?

French Yield with new decade highs surpassing 5.0% This reflects an approximately 160bps premium to German Bund Futures. France is sliding into a sovereign wealth crisis.

markets update. Brent dipped after Trump floated progress on Ukraine and eased Russia sanctions, but is already recovering part of those losses intraday. Friday's settle at $109.86 was the highest since May. France 10-year back up to ~4.9%, close to its highest level since 2002, with riots in Paris adding to budget worries. US 10-year found support just above 5% last week. $QQQ bouncing about 1% after the Nasdaq's worst week since spring. $SPX still within 2% of the ATH. bulls need oil and yields to stay contained, bears need France and Brent to push again. can the bounce hold into a heavy earnings week?