RogueMacro

🔴Economy Improves But Bitcoin Crashes PMIs expand, jobs remain resilient, the dollar breaks higher, gold rolls over, and bitcoin enters historic capitulation territory. Member post, Link below🔽. Support independent Macro analysis!

🚨 BREAKING: IRAN WAS MINUTES FROM LAUNCHING HELL ON EUROPE! 🚨 Sen. John Kennedy just dropped the BOMBSHELL classified intel that changes EVERYTHING: “Our intelligence showed Iran stacking ballistic missiles and killer drones like never before… They were about to turn to America and Israel and SNARL: ‘We’re restarting our nuclear weapons program — and if you try to stop us, we’ll OBLITERATE the Middle East… and oh yeah, our missiles now reach LONDON, PARIS, and GERMANY!’” Trump faced the nightmare decision: Let them arm up until they could rain fire on our allies and threaten the homeland… OR STRIKE FIRST AND SAVE THE WORLD? He chose to BOMB their nuclear sites and STOP THE MADNESS. This wasn’t politics. This was SURVIVAL. If Trump hadn’t acted, where would we be right now? 🔥 Drop your thoughts below — Did he save us or not? RT if you stand with strength over surrender! 🇺🇸💥 FOLLOW ME THE NEXT DROPS WILL BE SHOCKING

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

I think the Reps will pick up seats in midterms. They haven't unleashed the campaign war chest yet. Every 80/20 issue is for the conservatives. Registrations vastly favor Reps. Voter roll clean up favors Reps. Redistricting favors Reps. Demographics favor Reps. SAVE Act would lock it in.

🇺🇸 TREASURY YIELDS ROLLOVER: As expected, long-term yields are coming down after EOQ3's bottleneck. The potential is there for yields to come down rapidly, and completely shift the narrative from rate hikes to rate cuts.

VOTE 🗳️ I am convinced Democrats are using political funds to manipulate Polymarket odds. There is NO WAY the people of Michigan want this anti-American. Same in Texas - no way Texas wants Talirico. Go vote 🇺🇸

Zelenskyy: "If the US wants us to refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries for a month, provide us with ‘Patriots’ for one month."

American exceptionalism

BREAKING: 🇨🇳 China's central bank switches to a new overnight policy rate and injects 541 billion yuan ($81 billion) into the system on day one. It will now run these injections every single day, making borrowing cheaper for banks.