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We posted our first NFL SIM on October 14th.
You loved them. We delivered.
NFL SIMs are now LIVE on RotoBot Pro 🚨
We simulated Buccaneers at Bears 10,000 times 🏈
Every snap is built from this season's real plays: coverages, pressure, routes, run schemes, 4th-down habits and the clock.
Every NFL SIM is Available on the RotoBot App. Here's the most typical game ⏬
Where our model, our sims and this season agree:
Caleb Williams over 31.5 pass attempts
• Our model: 57%. The price needs 54%.
• Over in 65% of our 10,000 sims.
• Over in 3 of his 5 games this season, including his last 3 (36, 33, 34).
RotoBot App retweeted
SIT/START WEEK 9 🚨
Last week we answered 1,002 of your lineup calls. This week we’re answering every single one again.
Sit/start, trades, waivers, follow-ups. Tell us PPR, half or standard 👇🧵
Where our model, our sims and this season agree:
Caleb Williams over 31.5 pass attempts
• Our model: 58%. The price needs 50%.
• Over in 58% of our 10,000 sims.
• Over in 3 of his 5 games this season, including his last 3 (36, 33, 34).
RotoBot App retweeted
Play A Day #4: Sam LaPorta over 43.5 receiving yards at Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET. We're 3-0 after Lawrence, Luka and Tennessee (34-6, covered -5.5 by 22.5).
THE SQUEAKY WHEEL. LaPorta is in the final year of his rookie deal and wants to be paid. On Oct. 7 he said extension talks with Detroit are at a stalemate, and on Oct. 21 he said he'd "go get paid somewhere else" without a deal. He has put his body on the line for this team: he had back surgery last November for a herniated disc and missed the last eight games of 2025. He is back with 367 yards in seven games, 8th among tight ends. I expect Detroit to get him the ball.
THE FIT. Drew Petzing is Detroit's new offensive coordinator. His Cardinals offense gave Trey McBride 126 catches for 1,239 yards last year. Detroit now passes more than any team in the NFL, on 55% of its plays, and scores 29.0 points a game.
THE SPOT. Miami has allowed 69.1 receiving yards a game to tight ends, 5th most in the NFL, with 47 catches on 53 targets and 6 touchdowns. To all receivers it allows 8.8 yards a target, the most in the league. Miami is better against the run per carry (3.81, 8th best), so Detroit should keep throwing.
THE NUMBER. LaPorta is over 43.5 in 5 of 7 games: 48, 52, 44, 84, 88, 18, 33. The last two were his quietest, 12% of Detroit's targets against 18% for the season. RotoBot projects 49.9 yards on 6.0 targets, 6.4 over the line.
Not a lock. Data: RotoBot, ESPN.
We simulated Lions at Dolphins 10,000 times 🏈
Every snap is built from this season's real plays: coverages, pressure, routes, run schemes, 4th-down habits and the clock.
Every NFL SIM is Available on the RotoBot App. Here's the most typical game ⏬
Where our model, our sims and this season agree:
Jared Goff over 258.5 passing yards
• Our model: 54%. The price needs 53%.
• Over in 59% of our 10,000 sims.
• Over in 5 of his 7 games, including 412 against Carolina in Week 4.
Malik Washington under 43.5 receiving yards
• Our model: 56%. The price needs 53%.
• Under in 56% of our 10,000 sims.
• Under in 4 of his 7 games. Detroit allows the 2nd-fewest yards after the catch.