Rooster Odds: 2026 forecast built on real polls, not hopes. America First, Rust Belt raised. First to news, first in the replies. Polls don't vote, people do.
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Rooster Odds, updated Oct. 29 evening, 5 days out.
Senate: R 43.1%, D 53.4%, independent decides 3.5%.
House: R 6.0%, D 93.9%, Kiley decides 0.1%.
Ohio Senate and Ohio's 9th are toss-ups: EVEN.
Texas Senate: R 45.3%, D 54.7%.
Polls don't vote, people do.
The administration plans to cut Chinese telecom companies off from direct access to American phone numbers. I think that’s overdue. Beijing has no business sitting that close to our phone network.
US plans to ban Chinese telecom firms from direct access to US phone numbers reut.rs/4yWFCTX
The administration just asked California for records in a criminal investigation into noncitizen voting, five days before the midterm. Voters in every state deserve to know their rolls are clean.
The Trump administration has demanded records from California as part of a criminal investigation into alleged voting by noncitizens — escalating its battle with the largest US state ahead of Tuesday's midterm election reut.rs/48sHKb2
Kennedy says opioid deaths are at their lowest level in a decade. Towns across Ohio and Pennsylvania got hit as hard as anywhere by this, so it matters here. Don't expect it to lead the evening news.
.@SecKennedy: Trump Administration Making Historic Wins in Battle Against Opioid Crisis – with Lowest Deaths in a Decade trib.al/LMFZvZz
Senate Democrats are already planning which investigations they'd run if they win the chamber next week. Private equity, data center taxes, AI. Good to know before you vote.
US Senate Democrats plan to launch investigations into an array of issues, ranging from private equity’s impact on living costs to data center taxation and fears about AI, if they retake the chamber in next week's midterm elections, a key Democratic Senate aide said reut.rs/4sGNwiL
Franklin County says it's seeing about twice the voters it saw in the 2022 midterm. That's Columbus, the biggest blue county in Ohio, so the real question is whether the rural counties are turning out just as hard.
Stuff that got buried today:
Ex-Postal Service official pleaded guilty to steering contracts worth hundreds of millions to firms that paid his relative.
Florida ring sentenced over 1,700+ fake asylum claims.
Feds sued Google for sidelining an Army Reservist after deployment.
Ohio picks a governor in five days and there hasn't been one debate. Vivek accepted several invitations, and Acton turned them down while saying she's open to any invitation.
House progressives just told Axios the plan for next year is forcing votes on Medicare for All and abolishing ICE. At least they said it out loud before the election.
#NEW MICHIGAN Governor poll
🔵 Benson: 49% [+3]
🔴 James: 44% [+5]
Gap narrows from 7 to 5.
Mitchell Research | 10/26-27 | 636 LVs
#NEW MICHIGAN Senate poll
🔵 El-Sayed: 49% [+2]
🔴 Rogers: 42% [-2]
CNN/SSRS | 10/20-27 | 768 LVs
The Justice Department charged 18 more noncitizens in North Carolina with voting in the 2024 election, bringing the state's total to 30 this year. One green card holder from Kenya is accused of voting in every general election since 2008.
🗳️ Justice Department Charges 18 MORE IN NORTH CAROLINA with Illegally Voting in 2024 Election: DOJ Has Charged 30 People in North Carolina this Year for Illegally Voting
“Illegal voting is just that: illegal,” said Acting Deputy Attorney General @PADAGMcCotter. “If you’re not an American citizen, you cannot vote in our federal elections. We want to prevent illegal voting from occurring, which is why we’ve now charged 30 people just in North Carolina who have violated our laws by illegally registering to vote and illegally voting. We need to preserve the integrity of the ballot box by ensuring only those eligible are casting ballots.”
@HSI_HQ @USAO_EDNC @USAO_MDNC @USAO_WDNC
Read more: justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-d…
ALT Justice Department Charges 18 MORE IN NORTH CAROLINA with Illegally Voting in 2024 Election: DOJ Has Charged 30 People in North Carolina this Year for Illegally Voting
ALT Justice Department Charges 18 MORE IN NORTH CAROLINA with Illegally Voting in 2024 Election: DOJ Has Charged 30 People in North Carolina this Year for Illegally Voting
ALT Justice Department Charges 18 MORE IN NORTH CAROLINA with Illegally Voting in 2024 Election: DOJ Has Charged 30 People in North Carolina this Year for Illegally Voting
Obama told Georgia he's tired of being divided and wants neighborliness and joy, in the same speech where he called the last two years chaos, cruelty and corruption. In other words, unity starts once you vote his way.
Ed Markey says his side already has lawyers drafting a Supreme Court case and wants people ready for a national strike on Election Day. Around here, folks are planning to go to work and then go vote.
#NEW MICHIGAN early vote
Ballots cast: 1,704,715 [+152.2K since yesterday]
📬 Absentee returned: 1,346,372 [+81.3K]
🗳️ Early in person: 358,343 [+71K]
That's 23% of active voters, with 5 days to go.
Data: Michigan SOS, as of 10/29
A new House Judiciary report says LA police honored 4 of 4,177 ICE detainers since 2020, and San Francisco's sheriff turned down all 2,201. Add San Diego and it's nearly 9,000 requests ignored by three departments.
California sanctuary cities ignored nearly 9K ICE detainers - freeing violent criminals: report trib.al/SYzdbz4
#NEW WISCONSIN absentee ballots
Returned: 633,073 [+58.6K since yesterday]
In-person: 344,182 [+45.2K]
Requested: 737,687
More than 630K ballots already in, with 5 days to go.
Data: WI Elections Commission
The Justice Department is announcing indictments right now in Operation Ghostbusters, a scheme that used stolen American identities to enroll fake "ghost students" and collect federal student aid. Investigators say this kind of fraud goes back to 2021 and has pulled more than $100 million away from real students.
WATCH LIVE: DOJ officials announce charges in major student loan fraud investigation nitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1OGwbndWE…
#NEW PENNSYLVANIA mail ballots returned
🔵 Dem: 630,946 [+18.5K]
🔴 GOP: 244,220 [+9.4K]
⚪ Other: 93,691 [+4.3K]
968,857 of 1,386,391 requested
[Brackets: change since Wednesday's update]
GOP share of new returns: 29%, above its 25% share overall.
Data: PA Dept. of State
The administration is promising tariff relief to automakers that commit to building more here, per the Journal. It came up in talks to get Audi to put a $4 billion assembly plant in Georgia.
Exclusive: The Trump administration has promised to ease tariffs on automakers that commit to more U.S. manufacturing. The policy change emerged amid talks to get Audi to build a $4 billion assembly plant in Georgia. on.wsj.com/4sPdnoZ
