Social Commentary For The Apocalypse

The notorious #EmpireEvangelist Elbridge Colby has advocated for years for the use of tactical nuclear weapons to reestablish US deterrence in the world. If the Trump White House is now seriously considering such madness, Colby is the primary reason why.

With Scott Bessent’s recent statements that the United States will be imposing economic isolation on Iran “the likes of which the world has never before seen”, it is clear that the only path the United States sees to achieve a victory is one via economic warfare. The problem with this, however, is multifactorial. First, let’s address the elephant in the room here: If there was such a viable avenue to pursue… why did we wait almost 6 months to employ it in the first place? Furthermore, why is Bessent announcing it on Thursday to be released “next week”? The reality of this is that the United States never planned for any of this. The blockade was never our “Plan A”, nor was it our “Plan B”. This is very clearly evidenced by General License U, released on March 20th. GL-U unsanctioned ~120-140M barrels of Iranian oil, allowing for them to earn an additional ~$10/barrel more on the sale of oil. As I told The Washington Post at the time: “This move directly contradicts Trump’s own statements that the United States is considering winding down this conflict. You don’t unsanction Iranian oil if you’re winding down. This is the action of an administration that has no exit ramp and knows it. The word for that is desperation.” (Banger by the way) Then, just a month later, the Trump Administration authorized the blockade of Iran… followed by the lifting of the blockade… followed by the reimposition of the blockade… Quite clearly, we are shooting from the hip here. Secondly, and this is very key… there really isn’t much LEFT that the United States can do to pressure Iran. We have had the blockade imposed for coming up on a combined 100 days, Iran is already one of the most sanctioned countries on earth, and we have imposed well more than 200 new sanctions on Iran under Operation Economic Fury. While there ARE a few options that Treasury would have from a sanctions perspective, most notably sanctioning Chinese banks and teapot refineries that prop up the Iranian government and help flow through usable revenue, that would be a step that very much flies in the face of What Trump has been willing to do up to this point. In the past few weeks, there was plenty of discussion about a potential land blockade of Iran as well. However, given the operational lunacy of such a thing, the effectiveness of this would be theater at best. Lastly is the issue of TIME. The dueling economic warfare campaigns between Iran and the U.S. has always been an economic race to the bottom. Which will happen first? The Iranian economy breaks, or the global economy breaks? By all indications - the Japanese Yen, South Korean markets, US bonds, oil prices, refined products, fertilizer - it seems to be very clear that the global economy will break first. And even IF the Iranian economy breaks first… that is no guarantee whatsoever that this will force capitulation or a toppling of the Iranian government. Bessent makes a strong statement here. The discussion above is in no way an exhaustive list of the actions he could take, and I can think of at least a dozen other options he could employ at this time. But they are all desperate measures from a desperate administration. If they were solid strategies… Trump would not have signed the surrender MOU at Versailles. Bessent is throwing yet another Hail Mary pass.