CFA, CMT | ~34% CAGR since 2012 | frmr Value Investors Club | you have just 900 months on earth - are you all in? | Entertainment only; not financial advice
Joined June 2020
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$IREN Triple Down territory 🎯
1) Daily RSI is now the lowest since it cratered post-IPO in 2022.
2) We’re now at PANIC on my mean reversion indicator for the first time since April 2025.
3) Fundamentally, we’re trading below liquidation value with many s/t catalysts.
NFA
$IREN
Many of you who have followed me for some time know I’m not a “finfluencer” and do not post this lightly.
We are now in DOUBLE DOWN territory. My primary indicator shows we are deeply in FEAR and approaching PANIC (would currently fire around $28).
Receipts from my triple down at the April 2025 pico bottom below and the ONLY prior time I’ve made this call on IREN. That call will come sub-$28.
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is once again dead 💀
I believe to my core that anyone holding a material position in $IREN today will be post-economic before this decade is out.
I’ve built my career on asymmetric bets: Google, ABCD, Bitcoin, and now IREN.
I’m no IREN perma-bull. I’ve been wrong before, and when I am, I cut bait before taking a full goose egg.
But I’m not even thinking about thinking about selling here.
I’ve added almost daily for two weeks. My share count is now 40% higher than in April 2025, previously my second-largest position ever.
I know, I know. Losers average losers.
But a critical company in a critical industry, riding an exponential trend, trading below liquidation value? That’s an asymmetry I simply cannot ignore.
If the past few months have been painful, I see you.
Looking back, the moments that hurt the most were usually the moments I should’ve been buying the heaviest.
Yes, the macro is weaker this time. That makes it feel different.
But every bottom feels different.
To paraphrase the great Ronnie Coleman:
“Everybody wanna make big-ass gains, but don’t nobody wanna take big-ass pains.”
Have some conviction.
It’s only logical that the S&P 493 will lag the AI first movers.
I talk to CEOs. I have an inside track on this.
Revenue per employee and margins will surge in 2027. Unfortunately, so will layoffs.
Bookmark it.
S-Curve Capital retweeted
How to control the narrative 👇 $wulf
$WULF is NOT a neocloud. $WULF IS an energy infrastructure company. We match long term investment grade energy supply with long term HPC/AI off-take. We finance our projects competitively because our contracts require our customers to be investment grade or bring investment grade credit support. We raised capital last spring opportunistically and maintain a fortress balance sheet. Our team has built large scale energy infrastructure for 25 years. Lake Mariner is delivering CB-4 this quarter and CB -5 in the first quarter ‘27. No surprises coming. We projected a range of 8-10 million per MW. We are squarely in the middle of that range. We are all about execution. Project Justified in Kentucky is a world-class project. We already have the required equity and we have an investment grade backstop committed. We execute and have predictable cash flow. Markets are pretty wild right now but we fervently believe price action will catch up to shareholder value. Demand for our product is robust and real. Certainly we have to remain diligent and execute like there’s no tomorrow. We will. But knowing what we have in the ground, in contract, the investment grade credits behind our contracts and the team’s execution history and capabilities- we sleep at night. You can too.
$IREN Bull porn 🐂
This is an analog, not an EW count. But it’d be wild if it were this easy.
If you weren’t invested in $IREN or BTC miners during the early 2025 “tariff tantrum” and wonder what it felt like, this is it.
Ceaseless, merciless days and weeks of red on your screen.
Until one day, it stopped.
And then we rallied 1,400% over the next 7 months.
$IREN
Many of you who have followed me for some time know I’m not a “finfluencer” and do not post this lightly.
We are now in DOUBLE DOWN territory. My primary indicator shows we are deeply in FEAR and approaching PANIC (would currently fire around $28).
Receipts from my triple down at the April 2025 pico bottom below and the ONLY prior time I’ve made this call on IREN. That call will come sub-$28.
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is once again dead 💀
$IREN I’ve now tripled down on it and I’m going to rant.
Efficient market hypothesis is dead.
Either this is the next Enron (name kinda sounds similar unfortunately) and we’re about to get news of “Accounting Irregularities” or I’m going to make a lot of money alongside @Agrippa_Inv , @Umbisam , @litigious_dulce , and @FransBakker9812.
This not cope. I’m not emotional or “down bad”
You don’t need an excel spreadsheet for this one - it trades at a low single-digit multiple of F12 CF. Put AI aside, close the ATM, and just use CF to buy back the stock after reaching 52 EH and we’re teleporting back to $15… only a “meager” 200% gain.
Free call options on 2GW+ of future development or AI conversion.
Yes, the technicals suck. Nothing (yet) that I can see says: “Breakout - buy this chart” but I don’t think you’re being hero buying at these fundamental valuations and risk feels heavily skewed to the upside.
I use LLMs 2+ hours every day. If your average executive saw what I’m seeing (they aren’t), AI would already be adopted by every US business at scale.
If the average company treasurer understood the terms “financial repression” and “multi-polar” like we do Bitcoin and gold would already be 10% of corporate treasuries today.
IREN is at the intersection of both major trends.
I guess what I’m saying is, I don’t think it takes that much bravery to be bullish $IREN here when the rest of the market is fearful.
It’s the cheapest miner, the best operator, the best power ramp, and ironically one of the only ones that isn’t just a blatant management enrichment scheme… it’s already had a 66% drawdown and you’re scared to buy here?
🎯 CRAZY how well this post from a year ago is tracking. I promise I’m not from the future.
$IREN FUD predictions
2026
✅ Stock-based comp
✅ down 60%
2027
🕥 “is this WeWork for GPUs” just as it seems $CRWV is gearing up to tank $NCLD
2028
👀 $500/share
Bookmark it!
The year-by-year journey of an $IREN permabear 👇👇👇
2023
Iris Energy sucks. Didn’t it almost go bankrupt? Who even knows how to read IFRS and what’s a fiscal year?
2024
IREN sucks. No HODL so it’ll never work; FASB mark-to-market is a game-changer. Does it even have a Kaspa strategy and PS check out Corsicana.
2025
IREN sucks. It can’t do orchestration, doesn’t have the power it has, and no client announcements = no demand.
2026E
IREN sucks. Too much stock-based comp after so much winning. Went down 60% when the market was only down 20. OpenAI is a systemic risk. Blackwells are old news.
2027E
IREN sucks. Is this just WeWork for GPUs? Nuclear will be here before we know it, right?
2028E
IREN sucks. At $500/share it can’t even get a 10x anymore. I knew I was right to be cynical!
UPDATE: $IREN now trading at sub-Olive Garden levels after the health inspector spotted an Ant in our bottomless red-sticks.
At less than 1x 2027 Exit ARR, and despite management’s best efforts to commit seppuku, I still see VERY little risk of ruin + a BIG margin of safety.
$IREN is now trading around the lofty valuation of (checks notes):
1x 2028 Revenue
The market is valuing it like it’s an Olive Garden.
Just ponder that for a moment...
$IREN My indicators read similarly, fwiw.
Pretty oversold.
FEAR not PANIC, but the latter reading is quite rare - once every 2-4 yrs and last triggered April ‘25
I like Phil, he’s a smart dude and please give him a follow, but…
I want to use this to highlight a broader point. Why are people so sure that if $IREN sucks today (or 6 months ago), that it’ll always suck?
A story:
Motorola launched “the brick,” the first cell phone, in 1983 for $3,995. It was a clunky status symbol. It sucked.
But by around 2000, 50% of Americans had a cell phone and Motorola was the second largest player with a 15% market share. A tremendous success story.
Also interesting is the LARGEST player, Nokia, didn’t even introduce its first handheld phone until 1987 - 4 years after Motorola!
You see where I’m going with this?
Does $IREN have a first-mover advantage, a killer product, or a dominant market position today? Absolutely not.
What they DO have is the right pieces to climb the leaderboard with a 3 to 5 year view… and today it’s priced like that outcome is impossible.
NFA. DYOR
The IREN strategy is flawed and I think mgt knows this but was forced in this direction.
The majority of their clients will be either out of business or on their backs in 2-3yrs.
IREN needs everything to go perfect for them and I don’t see it happening………….
IREN is a stock that can maybe be traded but I don’t see the cloud strategy succeeding and they certainly don’t have the marketing dollars long term to compete. Short term contracts and below IG customers will be the death of this company.
Market it ✅
$IREN
Deutsche Bank: the S&P has rallied in the fourth quarter in 21 of the past 23 midterm-election years, with an average gain of roughly 7%.
Let’s make it 22/24🤞
$IREN
Negative replies outnumbered positive ones nearly 2-to-1 on IREN’s latest update:
25 negative,
12 positive,
16 neutral.
Been at this for a while and sentiment like this, running counter to fundamentals, is often where the greatest R:R is.
Have a great weekend 🫡
At IREN, we believe AI builders shouldn't have to choose between raw performance and operational flexibility.
As an inaugural partner of the NVIDIA AI Cloud Ready Initiative, Mirantis has completed NVIDIA-Certified Hypervisor validation for k0rdent AI’s virtualization stack on Arm-based NVIDIA GB200 systems. This milestone demonstrates that virtualized GPU environments can now deliver predictable, near bare-metal performance while supporting secure, hardware-level multi-tenant isolation.
IREN AI Cloud empowers engineering teams to match infrastructure to workload requirements, balancing performance, isolation, and operational efficiency.
AI builders can choose from:
• Software-Defined Virtualization: delivers secure, elastic multi-tenant environments and scalable inference, with the VM as a hardened tenancy boundary.
• Dedicated Bare-Metal Clusters: optimized for maximum performance to deliver high-throughput model training and high-concurrency, ultra-low-latency inference.
From infrastructure to inference, choose the operational model that best fits every AI workload.
Reminds me of Rick Perry’s vaporware company, Fermi $FRMI, that was both founded and IPO’d in 2025.
9 months old and pre-revenue for $10 B. Debatably, even more egregious @matthew_sigel
Good riddance indeed to these scammers.
Good riddance to Firmus' failed $30B IPO and shame on the lead bankers (JPM, MS, BofA) who tried to dump this crap on public investors.
The failure hammered public data center stocks yesterday, but longer term, it's healthy for the sector that investors rejected this extractive structure:
>58% of shares freely tradable from day 1, with no lock-up restrictions, despite a capital-intensive business needing years of funding.
>Only ~46MW operational against 900MW+ contracted.
>Valuation nearly tripled in two months, to $30B equity; wildly overpriced vs public comps
>Founder and co-CEO previously served prison time for insider trading.
>Major 1.6GW development partnership with CDC fell apart during the bookbuild.
>Bankers reportedly stood to collect A$215M in fees and explored a 50% price cut before abandoning the deal.
Public shareholders shouldn't be expected to provide overpriced exit liquidity for insiders while underwriting nearly all the execution risk.
Established listed operators with access to capital markets, proven execution and funded development pipelines should take share from these less disciplined private competitors as capital becomes more discriminating.
Let this be a lesson to boards and investment bankers across the sector.
Good work to the market for pushing back on this 💩
A month ago nobody wanted to talk about rising 10-year yields in my 🐻 post below.
Now they're +50bps and everyone's hair is on fire. RIGHT BEFORE yields come off (~50-75bps, I think) AND AI infra starts printing positive operating cash flow.
$IREN $NBIS $WULF $NUAI
$IREN
Fast-forward two weeks and the band is back together. Everyone’s (rightfully) seeing 🚀 again.
Want the bear 🐻 case? Here it is:
10-year yields north of 6% in an aggressive, CapEx-hungry buildout.
That’s the risk.
Give this a listen. Very worthwhile.
$IREN is now trading around the lofty valuation of (checks notes):
1x 2028 Revenue
The market is valuing it like it’s an Olive Garden.
Just ponder that for a moment...
The X sentiment on data center infrastructure stocks is perhaps the worst I’ve ever seen… AND it’s just before the assets monetize!
Reply guys are ravenous rn.
This is when being a contrarian is the most fun. Many will regret not taking advantage.
$IREN, $NBIS, $WULF, $NUAI
$IREN
I feel like Robinhood in reverse: stealing from the financially illiterate to enrich myself.
If you’re focused on negative EPS with large one-off impairments and not F-12 with a high degree of operating leverage, you’ve missed the asymmetry and I can’t save you.
Lot of signal here. Similar-ish math to mine and why I rolled all my $NBIS into $IREN this month.
Give @Abbycadabby87 a follow
I like #NBIS too, but I’m holding a bigger position in $IREN because I see more upside there.
IREN is targeting 800MW of IT capacity by 2027. If all of it comes online and generates $20M per MW annually, that works out to $16B in ARR. At 5x ARR, that’s an $80B market cap.
If $NBIS reaches $18B in ARR and gets a 7x multiple, that would put it at $126B.
I own both, but under these assumptions, I lean IREN. Now we give them time and see how much capacity actually gets delivered—and how much value ultimately makes it to each share.
Value Line initiates coverage on $IREN this week with an 18-month Target Price of $74 (range of $37 to $111).