Substack Bestseller. Data-evidenced storyteller. EPL and FPL. Anything can happen on any given match.
Houston, Texas (+ DC & Miami)
Joined May 2022
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Football is a market. Most people read it like a story.
Minutes are risk. Roles usually move before points. The crowd is often late.
I’m looking for the gaps before they become obvious.
A lot of y’all are dealin’ w tough Arsenal defender benching decisions into GW9.
This is what you’re up against re the Liverpool attack:
- lots of shots from poor positions
- reliance on counters and set pieces
- very few clean looks at goal
- build-up gets to edge of box but isn’t breaking defenses open.
Alexander Isak is the fear, of course. He’s also taking relatively low value shots and his exquisite placement has done the heavy lifting.
Are you benching or starting ARS GK & Def 🤷♂️
If you like what you see on this post ñ, you will love this 👉 santisignals.substack.com/p/…
On Evanilson:
The real part: his xG per 90 has roughly tripled.
The lucky part: 3 goals from 1.84 xG, and 1.30 of that came in one game v Sunderland.
I’m not dissing Evanilson btw, there’s a lot to like. Just monitor Kroupi because he really matters!
Marcus Tavernier has 4 hauls of 10+ pts and an 8 pointer.
He’s done it despite bad luck on assists.
How Kroupi will affect his output is one of the key things to watch over the next few weeks.
On pens Tavs was among the most undervalued FPL assets. Without him he’s still undervalued but roughly on par w BOU teammates Evanilson and Rayan.
Are you backing Tavs?
This is how you beat GW9:
DEFCON, Jackson & FWDs, BOU attack & def + secret edge that pays FPL dividends!
👉 santisignals.substack.com/p/…
I stand with @AlexVolloFPL on this.
Texas Law applies to any and all content thieves.
Facebook is full of my stuff with the watermark hidden & replaced with a different one, run through AI and all sorts of things. Thankfully, those accounts get flagged and banned pretty easily.
Twitter has a ridiculous amount of thieves too, but there's not much I can do about it. I don't mind people using my stuff without credit, but the sheer amount of copying is getting ridiculous.
Important Truffert update!
I understated his creativity. On upgraded data he has 1.85 xA, the most of any PL full-back, with 1.53 from crosses.
The total needs a caveat, however. 0.74 of his 1.85 (40%) came from one cross, the GW8 assist. Without it he'd have 1.11, still the most of the three Bournemouth defenders, but no longer clear at the top of the league. So the claim that he's Bournemouth's best creator is solid, while "the best in the league" rests partly on one ball.
His DefCon floor is still the weakest of the three (1 of 8), but he's probably the Bournemouth defender with the most attacking upside over the long run of a season.
Re: Jackson / Manzambi,
xG + xA (xGI), GW1-8:
Jackson: 1.99 + 0.75 = 2.74
Manzambi: 1.33 + 0.80 = 2.13
Manzambi has played 323 minutes to Jackson's 551, so season totals undersell him.
Count only Villa's chances while each is on the pitch:
Share of Villa xG: Manzambi 27%, Jackson 25%
Share of Villa xA: Manzambi 24%, Jackson 15%
Involved in: Manzambi 43% of Villa's chance value, Jackson 35%
Per 90 that's 0.60 xGI for Manzambi and 0.45 for Jackson.
Manzambi is Villa's top creator and shoots as often as a striker.
The risk is minutes. 4 starts, subbed off in all four (72, 86, 72, 66).
With Nico Jackson and Johan Manzambi embarking on a nice run of fixtures is it time to stop thinking “or” and embrace the power of “and”?
I know a lot of y’all are strugglin’ to decide which Bournemouth defender to bring in.
Hill? Truffert? Silva?
This might help…or not 👇
Evanilson is doing so well this season, goals and assists.
Will be tough for him to be the makeweight to accommodate Junior Kroupi.
Erling Haaland remains the most undervalued and under appreciated FPL asset.
It’s bananas that folks still insist on rando captains when The Robot is taking this volume of quality shots from these locational all inside the box:
DCL’s shooting is flying like a lead balloon of late.
- ignore MUN GW7 as my cousin’s 16 yo nephew put up 1.2 xG against them.
Nico Jackson is our GW8 biggest overperformer with 2️⃣ goals from 0.34 xG (+1.66).
Jean-Philippe Mateta is our underperformer of the week with 0️⃣ goals from 1.26 xG.
📊 via StatsBomb
A few of us got the right answer, well done!
Do you have what it takes to guess the FPL player in question?
The asset in question offers exceptional chance creation, ranking top 4% globally in his position for open play xG assisted, per StatsBomb.
His shot volume is also exceptionally high ranking inside the top 10% for his position, with npxG generated inside the top 25th percentile.
He’s a very able dribbler and in the top 5th%ile.
Shot selection and getting dispossessed are his biggest weaknesses.
Good luck!
Do you have what it takes to guess the FPL player in question?
The asset in question offers exceptional chance creation, ranking top 4% globally in his position for open play xG assisted, per StatsBomb.
His shot volume is also exceptionally high ranking inside the top 10% for his position, with npxG generated inside the top 25th percentile.
He’s a very able dribbler and in the top 5th%ile.
Shot selection and getting dispossessed are his biggest weaknesses.
Good luck!
There is one player who has phenomenal
underlyings who is being totally ignored by the FPL community.
It’s bonkers.