$IREN JUST REPORTED INSANE EARNINGS.
$IREN just made the bearish thesis much harder to defend.
AI Cloud revenue surged 182% QoQ to $200M, the company delivered a double beat, and its backlog grew 22% to $20B.
With 86% AI Cloud gross margins, substantial GPU prepayments, a growing 35 GW pipeline, and a target of over $4B ARR by January 2027, $IREN's growth potential may still be significantly underestimated by the market.
It's honestly hilarious to see $IREN down this much.
I didn't realize the retail community was so soft.
Capitulation is really flowing through all these people, as well as margin calls.
Run the numbers, and you'll see how impeccable this industry will be.
I guess it'll just have to take longer to hit the hundreds, even though it will, and people selling at $18 will just be a stat showing how idiotic some investors are.
I genuinely don't understand what is going on in the minds of retail investors.
Let's make this as simple as possible to understand. AI is NOT going extinct. Anyone who argues that is completely wrong, no matter the regulations put on it.
That is a key technological advancement in society that will power even more unimagineable technologies.
Therefore, when AI inevitably prevails, you are going to need an AI infrastructure company to store power and compute, and that is where $IREN and $NBIS come in.
People who are arguing that $IREN is a losing stock and company are either mad that they lost so much money in $IREN, or CLEARLY does not understand how the world works.
Don't you realize how reliant the world is on AI now? Students can't think without AI, and companies want to replace people with AI because it is much cheaper and AI won't mess up and can work 24 hours a day.
I don't care what your stance is with AI, but I hate to break it to you; it is not going anywhere. Hence why companies like these neoclouds physically can't go away, unless they are in the infant stage, and with tougher regulations, can't obtain permits anywhere.
Another hit piece sent out by Semi🤦🏽♂️
This isn't even correct information; First off, there isn't a specified amount IF ANY that is contributed by $IREN.
On top of that, labeling it as $5B short in CapEx because of $IREN is misleading because it confuses a quarterly spending variance with a loss or cancellation of infrastructure spending.
The shortfall reflects compute capacity that was delayed, potentially pushing the timing of CapEx recognition into a later period.
This does NOT necessarily reduce Microsoft's overall commitment. Microsoft never identified $IREN as the cause, so attributing the entire $5B gap to this company is speculation, not a confirmed fact.
BREAKING NEWS🚨: According to @theinformation, Microsoft's $5B less in capex in Q3 than it had planned was in part due to delays by $IREN.
We would not be surprised by this, considering that IREN continues to come up in our conversations with neocloud customers, usually for the wrong reasons. Multi-day power outages, network upgrades, storage failures, air quality controls leading to link flaps, XIDs everywhere. The #1 worst site in the industry, according to users.
$IREN being down 11% shows me how much capitulation is affecting these clueless retail investors.
Texas being blue was BULLISH for $IREN, and there's no doubt about it.
The governor wants to support the already built data centers, and the only argument is that SW2 is harder to get up by 2028.
Besides that, there is only more leverage for $IREN, who now controls Texas in terms of data center production.
Their cost and power are only going to go up now that it'll be more strict to receive permits for building, which will make the compute much more expensive.
I've been saying the same thing.
Ridiculous how so many people just disregard the clear facts.
Gina Hinojosa supports a data center moratorium, and this would only add greater leverage for $IREN, who has the most power in Texas.
Seeing that the stock is already down 8% after-hours shows me that there really are a lot of people without brains.
TEXAS GOVERNOR RACE MAY HAVE JUST CREATED A MOAT FOR $IREN
Gina Hinojosa has a 92% chance to win Texas governor race.
She supports a data center moratorium.
This means companies who have land and power already secured are at an advantage compared to other companies. This was a moat I have been saying that $IREN could have.
How will the stock market react in the case of the Democrats winning both the House and Senate?!
Would they push to end the war in Iran? If so, that would definitely help the stock market flourish.
Regardless of the outcome, stocks go up over time, and short-term fear is never permanent.
Continue to invest in companies that are extremely undervalued right now, like $IREN.
BREAKING: Democrats' chances of sweeping both the House & Senate surge to new highs on Election Day.
75% chance.
🔗 polymarket.com/r/BoP26
Regardless of short-term price action and the stock being up 9% today, this stock is going to be a tremendous winner over the next decade.
Some people still can't comprehend how the capex situation and minor debt problem are ALREADY funded and well positioned to not affect $IREN at all. This stock is not $WULF nor $CRWV, which both have terrible debt problems.
Once earnings come out Thursday, the stock price will be irrelevant. We have seen amazing earnings still drop a stock 10%+ because of the AI scare. What we need to be looking out for is the management team addressing a clear roadmap to success and what they have been doing.
I think it will be bullish to see the massive transition finally from bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure.
Exactly.
People don't understand the leverage that this company has.
$IREN is going to be one of the leading companies that change the world, and people have the opportunity to be insanely early. It will be one of those investments you talk about forever if you get in at these levels.
JPMorgan double-upgraded $IREN when it was ~$44.
Bernstein named it its #1 AI pick for 2026 at $46.
It’s around $26.50, with earnings on Thursday.
Make of that what you will.
It's comical at this point how people think these AI infrastructure and neocloud companies are at their own demise.
The crash everyone is seeing is far beyond just these companies.
There are frauds among them, sure, yet a sector-wide crash is not one company's fault, nor even just a fundamental problem at this point.
We already see how bullish other companies are on AI and how they are all racing to secure compute.
Once sentiment and the economy flip, then we will see these companies race up 50%+ in a month.
It's a long-term game, and companies like $IREN and $NBIS aren't going ANYWHERE.
$IREN reports earnings on Thursday, and there is a lot to look forward to.
We are going to see a MASSIVE transition from bitcoin mining revenue to AI infrastructure revenue, and it will continue to reaffirm the conviction that $IREN is not going anywhere.
They are a big-time player in this sector and will continue to demonstrate that each and every quarter.
People will be looking back at this stock ina couple years, wondering why they weren't investing in this company at $23.
Check out my new video going over why $IREN and other neoclouds have been getting torched over the past month.
THIS Is What's Happening With NEOCLOUD Stocks. youtu.be/inv1yCX_QwQ?si=kPS9… via @YouTube
More FUD is circulating around the rumors pointing towards $IREN delays due to $MSFT capex miss.
Take a look at this article; it perfectly explains the money behind $MSFT contracts and how it could not solely be $IREN.
Like he states in the article, $IREN H2 could be a bit risky, but H3-H4 are perfectly on track.
$MSFT: Who Third Party Delays
The Neocloud news today was $MSFT's capex miss & CY outlook cut ~$175B to $170B attributed to third party GPU-as-a-service delays.
Number Sense
Respect Dave here, but $IREN alone cannot be responsible for 5B cut. IREN's 9.7B contract is only 1.94B a year and that only fully counts towards MSFT Capex if all tranches were expected to be billing at from Jan 1, 2026 which is not the case at all.
If MSFT expected take deliveries from June to Dec, average delivery time is Aug/Sept so the billed amount is 1/4 of the 1.94B ARR in CY 2026. That's 500m Capex and the shortfall was 5B, a 10x difference.
If we take delivery schedule of June-Dec then Aug/Sept is the average billing start means a CY 2026 5B Capex miss is 20B ARR. If take an average of Jan-Dec deliveries, then June is the average biling start and a 5B Capex miss is 10B ARR.
Over a 5-year contract that's 50B-100B. That's bigger than $IREN, $NBIS, and Nscale's 2026 responsibilities combined. As we will see most of NScale's commitments are for 2027+.
Who Is It
If you have sense of numbers you will realize a insight: if $NBIS, $IREN, Nscale, all delivered on Dec 31, 2026, technically no one would miss and MSFT would have almost 0 Capex from these 3. That's obviously not the case but I'm illustrating that the Capex miss may not be attributed to a complete miss but also a combination deliveries back weighted towards end of the year.
In fact, these three combined cannot make up a 5B Capex or 10B-20B ARR shortfall in 2026. This magnitude of a miss means that MSFT has more third party bare metal suppliers besides these three. I keep saying there's some sh** Neocloud we haven't heard of.
Nscale Situation
NScale is confirmed 6 months delayed at Glomfjord (1) but that's only 30MW max = 300m ARR = 75m 2026 Capex. Nscale scratched their UK datacenter completely but it doesn't seem any meaningful amount was scheduled for 2026 anyways. @SMASIMHO says that SIN02 is a culprit at 200MW (3) but that's only 2B ARR = 500m CY 2026 Capex for average delivery tranche Aug/Sept.
We see that Nscale has some definitely misses but alone cannot doesn't make up the 5B shortfall.
IREN Situation
IREN has delivered H1 for 500M ARR delivered in mid August that's only ~187.5m billed in 2026 for H1. After acceptance, IREN’s fees are “non-refundable, non-cancellable” through 2031 (4). H1 will be billing and count towards MSFT Capex and networking change will be done in maintence windows..
H2 was expected Oct and a complete miss in 2026 would only cut 125m Capex from MSFT.
I expect H3-H4 will be delivered in Dec. H2 is likely the biggest risk for IREN as it was midway between old and new topology and if anything new needs to be ordered then Jan delivery is possible. Not saying that's the case but calling out what's possible.
Yes there's a clause that says MSFT has right to refuse H3-H4 is H2 isn't delivered but fact is that MAI is desperate for capacity right now and will take whatever is up. If they don't accept H3-H4, they cannot use it either.
NBIS Situation
From the site design submitted to Vineland local government, NBIS is to build out 16 blocks of BE Fuel Cells. BE Fuel Cells are likely all on site and ready to go but the main time is building out the electrical aggregation and natural gas piping.
None of the 2 or 3 story platforms even started from a recent picture in Sept and that's 12/16 of the blocks.
Pros is that temporary generators provide 123MW of the 300MW. On Oct 22, BE announced that the site had 100MW but only the first block was delivering power to the DC. Assuming NBIS builds out the 4 blocks without the platforms up this year, that's 123+80MW=203MW which is only a 100MW miss.
That NBIS alone doesn't make a 5B capex miss either.
Conclusion
It's clear that combining Nscale's big misses, IREN's zero to small miss, and possible NBIS medium sized missed cannot explain 5B CY 2026 shortfall in MSFT. MSFT must have other bare metal providers outside of these 3.
The signal in this is that alot of sh** Neoclouds are missing for MSFT in 2026. In 2027, we will see more misses as the added center capacity to double from 2026.
Any Neocloud who can put capacity up will have negotation power because alot of sh** Neoclouds will miss. Nscale isn't even the worst and will miss a sh** load in 2027 too.
Very bullish for neocloud companies like $IREN and $NBIS.
There is a lot of confusion out there and things being manipulated.
People look at $MSFT, saying they have to push back expectations of compute delivery from a delay by a third party, and people assume this is $IREN.
Even though $IREN shows no signs of slowing down and continues to put the pedal to the medal and announce more good news for the company.
$GOOGL on call: "Given the supply constraint environment, we started utilizing third party compute capacity at the end of Q3 and will ramp usage in Q4. We expect margin headwinds in the near term as we utilize this capacity. Moving to investments, our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range of 195 to $205 billion remain unchanged. We continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027, and will provide further details on our Q4 call."
Exactly right.
Wall Street wants big tech to rent AI compute rather than build it for themselves.
Who are they going to come to... $IREN
This company is at its beginning, and there is so much more growth ahead.
More investors piling into $IREN.
It won't matter what the stock price is today; once these catalysts deliver, then we are going to see a much higher stock price regardless.
We will be back in the $30s very soon, and shortly $45+ after that.
I've said this many times, but if you genuinely own zero shares at these levels, you are costing you and your family tens of thousands of dollars.
$IREN just closed a $363M financing deal with Wingspire, backed by SIX lenders.
People have been saying that neoclouds can't get any financing, but it was always just the ones with skewed financials...
$IREN is one of the top two positioned neoclouds to run once macro and market sentiment switch.
The moves this company has made and the adversity they will overcome in the end are outstanding.
Jim Cramer said there is more downside for AI infrastructure stocks, and this is a fake rally...
That is the most bullish sign for this sector.
We are bottoming in the sector and may have some more pullback, but we are going to be getting amazing earnings from the increasing AI use.
Keep an eye out for all the companies reporting this week and neoclouds reporting next week, like $IREN.
