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MACRO RADAR | NOV 2–6 · WEEKLY OUTLOOK 📡 US midterm elections, expected rate hikes in Australia and the UK, and Friday's employment reports headline the week. ISM surveys and Eurozone inflation add further tests of economic activity and price pressures. MON, NOV 2 | US ISM MANUFACTURING: The index is forecast at 54.7 (prev. 54.5), with new orders and prices paid offering insight into manufacturing demand and inflation pressures. TUE, NOV 3 | US MIDTERMS & RBA: Congressional elections could shift fiscal and regulatory expectations. The RBA is expected to hike 25bps to 4.85%, while US JOLTS will provide another measure of labour demand. WED, NOV 4 | EUROZONE CPI & US DATA: Eurozone inflation will test whether price pressures are easing from September's 3.8%. ADP Employment and ISM Services will offer fresh signals on hiring, business activity and service-sector inflation. THU, NOV 5 | BOE & CANADIAN BUDGET: The BoE is expected to raise rates 25bps to 4.00%, with attention on updated forecasts and further tightening. Canada's federal budget could influence CAD and bond yields. FRI, NOV 6 | US & CANADIAN JOBS: US Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast at 55K (prev. 29K), with unemployment expected at 4.2%. Wage growth and payroll revisions will also be critical for the Fed's December outlook. MARKET CONTEXT: Following the Fed's October pause, markets face a difficult balance between persistent inflation and slowing US hiring. Strong wage growth and continued price pressures could reinforce expectations of further tightening, supporting Treasury yields and USD while weighing on gold. Weaker employment would challenge that outlook, while election results introduce a separate source of fiscal and regulatory uncertainty.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: A single $44M withdrawal drained 99.94% of Jupiter Lend's available USDC, leaving over $416M in deposits with almost no immediate liquidity. Withdrawals stalled Friday before the platform announced normal operations had resumed Saturday. On-chain analysis revealed a 471-day pattern of overnight fund movements by the same wallet cluster. This time, $70.9M flowed to Circle instead of returning to lending platforms. 📉

Weekly News Recap | Oct 24 – 30 📰 Crypto absorbed its biggest security shock in years, institutional adoption and macro pressure continued reshaping the market. 🔓 Binance Breach About $6.3B was drained from @binance wallets. A compromised DevOps laptop and other access points are under investigation; around $3B has been frozen, with losses covered by SAFU and company funds. 📉 Market Fallout $BTC fell below $77,000 to a six-week low, while $ETH and $BNB also sold off sharply. Crypto liquidations reached about $1.68B in 24 hours, including roughly $1.43B in longs. 🏛 Fed Holds The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75–4.00%, with two policymakers voting for a 25 bp increase. The split highlighted persistent inflation concerns. 🇨🇳 China Tech Rout China's STAR50 is down about 40% from its July peak, erasing roughly $480B in market value. The CSI 300 is also nearly 20% below its June high, despite around $25B in state-backed ETF buying this month. ⛓️ DTCC Goes Onchain DTCC launched tokenization for 34 stocks, ETFs and U.S. Treasuries representing roughly $30T in market value. The securities are backed 1:1 by assets held at DTC and can move between registered wallets 24/7. 📊 US Perps NYSE parent ICE partnered with TradeXYZ to bring @HyperliquidX-powered perpetual futures to a regulated U.S. market, pending approval. 🏦 Ripple Bank @Ripple received approval for a federally supervised national trust bank. It can manage RLUSD reserves, provide custody and collateral trustee, but cannot take deposits or make loans. 💰 Coinbase Diversifies @coinbase reported $719M in Q3 net income, despite transaction revenue falling 43% YoY to $590M. Prediction markets topped $200M in annualized revenue, while subscriptions and services reached 49% of net revenue. 🛰 Amazon Leo Amazon is acquiring Globalstar for $11.57B, adding spectrum and satellite infrastructure to its Leo network. The system targets roughly 3,200 satellites by 2029.

MACRO RADAR | FRI, OCT 30 · RECAP 📡 EUROZONE GDP: Q3 growth reached 0.4% QoQ, beating the 0.2% forecast but slowing from 0.6% in Q2. GERMANY: GDP expanded 0.2% against 0.1% expected, supported by public spending, while private investment remained weak. FRANCE: The economy unexpectedly contracted 0.1%, while annual inflation accelerated to 3.8%, exceeding the 3.6% forecast. BANK OF JAPAN: Rates remained at 1.25% following an 8–1 vote. Higher inflation projections and continued tightening signals kept future rate hikes in focus. MARKET CONTEXT: Europe's stronger aggregate growth masks uneven economic conditions. Germany's recovery remains dependent on fiscal support, while France faces weaker output and rising prices. Meanwhile, ECB forecasters raised their 2027 inflation outlook from 2.2% to 2.6%, increasing the risk that further monetary tightening could deepen weakness in parts of the eurozone.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: Binance reported a $6.3B security breach, potentially the largest crypto hack on record. Around $3B has been frozen, deposits and withdrawals were suspended, and $BTC fell to a six-week low near $76K. Initial findings point to a compromised engineer’s laptop. Institutional investors are already pulling assets from other exchanges. That reduces available trading capital, threatening market liquidity well beyond the affected platform. 📉

MACRO RADAR | THU, OCT 29 · RECAP 📡 US GDP: Q3 growth reached 3.4% annualized, beating the 3.2% forecast and accelerating from 2.2%. Consumer spending and business investment drove the expansion. CORE PCE: September inflation matched expectations at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. However, real consumer spending was flat, while inflation-adjusted disposable income fell 0.3%. ECB: The deposit rate remained at 2.50%, as expected. Rising energy costs threaten growth and inflation, while Christine Lagarde announced her departure in February 2027. MARKET CONTEXT: Despite strong quarterly growth, September's weaker household data and a savings rate of just 3.8% raise questions about the sustainability of consumer demand. Persistent inflation limits the Fed's flexibility even as spending slows. Meanwhile, the ECB faces rising price pressures alongside tighter financing conditions, making further rate hikes increasingly difficult to balance against growth risks.

📰 NEWS: NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange is partnering with Trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures to the US. The planned regulated venue would offer 24/7 trading across stocks, commodities, FX and crypto, subject to CFTC approval. 📈

MACRO RADAR | THU, OCT 29 · PREVIEW 📡 US GDP: Q3 growth is forecast at 3.2% annualized, up from 2.2% in Q2, pointing to continued economic resilience. CORE PCE: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is expected to rise 0.3% MoM (prev. 0.2%), with annual inflation reaching 3.1%. ECB RATE DECISION: The deposit rate is expected to remain at 2.50%, with attention on inflation risks, economic growth and future policy guidance. MARKET CONTEXT: Following yesterday's 10–2 Fed decision to hold rates, stronger growth alongside persistent inflation could reinforce the case for prolonged restrictive policy, supporting Treasury yields and USD while weighing on gold. Weaker growth without easing price pressures would complicate the outlook for the next rate decision.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced plans to reduce annual rate-setting votes from 8 to 7 in 2027 and 6 in 2028, reserving the remaining meetings for long-term strategy. The announcement followed a 10–2 vote to hold rates at 3.75–4%, with two officials favoring a hike. Fewer decisions put more weight on economic data, raising the risk of sharp moves in bonds, currencies and equities between meetings. 📊

MACRO RADAR | WED, OCT 28 · RECAP 📡 FED: Rates held at 3.75–4.00% as expected, but the decision passed 10–2, with two policymakers favoring a 25bp hike. The split highlights continued pressure for tighter policy. BANK OF CANADA: Rates increased 25bps to 2.50%, while the 2027 inflation forecast jumped to 3.1% from 2.0%. Further tightening remains possible as higher energy costs spread through the economy. RBNZ: A surprise 4–3 vote kept rates at 2.75% against expectations of a hike. NZD fell as much as 1.7% following the announcement. UK BUDGET: Fiscal headroom narrowed to £15B from roughly £24B in March, leaving a smaller buffer against rising borrowing costs. MARKET CONTEXT: Central banks face persistent inflation but differ on how quickly to tighten policy. Thursday's US GDP and Core PCE could shift rate expectations again, immediately after the Fed's decision.

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MACRO RADAR | WED, OCT 28 · PREVIEW 📡 UK AUTUMN BUDGET: With borrowing costs near multi-decade highs, attention turns to fiscal plans, debt issuance and updated economic forecasts. Unexpected measures could trigger significant moves in GBP and gilt yields. BANK OF CANADA: A 25bp rate hike to 2.50% is widely expected. With inflation at 3.1% and economic growth weakening, updated projections and guidance on further tightening will be crucial for CAD. FED RATE DECISION: Rates are expected to remain at 3.75–4.00%. The main focus is whether the Fed signals another hike in December as inflation remains elevated. Any shift in guidance could affect Treasury yields, USD and gold. MARKET CONTEXT: New Zealand's surprise rate hold earlier today has already demonstrated the risks of heavily priced-in policy decisions. With a Fed pause and Canadian hike largely anticipated, forward guidance and deviations from expectations could drive the strongest market reactions.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: OpenAI plans to buy Google TPUs, expanding its compute supply beyond Nvidia after already renting the chips since 2025. Oracle will also become the first hyperscaler outside Google to offer TPUs, with deployments starting in 2027. Scarce GPUs become less of a gatekeeper to AI scale, shifting the advantage toward who can turn cheaper capacity into better models. 🧠

Tuesday Insights: The Day the Web Almost Broke 🌐 Millions of independent websites were suddenly tied to one patch. 01 | From Bug to Exploit During an AI-assisted audit in August, Ryan Austin and the Calif team found exploitable paths reaching back to PHP 5.4.0 from 2012. Within two weeks, they had working unauthenticated remote code execution, allowing a crafted request to run code on a vulnerable server without a login. Both flaws were rated 9.2/10. 02 | Millions at Once The weakness lived inside PHP itself, beneath individual applications. Researchers confirmed attacks against WordPress, Drupal, Joomla, MediaWiki and basic PHP scripts. PHP powers 69.2% of websites with a known server-side language, while Censys identified 4.18M hosts and 67.6M web properties potentially exposed. 03 | Four Days Early After two months of coordinated disclosure, patches were scheduled for October 21. AWS later traced an exploitation attempt to October 17, then found proof-of-concept exploits 12 hours before the embargo lifted. PHP warned there was no complete mitigation: updating was the only safe fix. 04 | The Price of Safety Organizations unable to patch in time began sacrificing access. Government portals, hospitals, the Port of Rotterdam, Wikimedia and the Internet Archive restricted or shut services while updates were applied. Many had no confirmed breach; going offline removed the risk of leaving an exploitable server exposed. 📌 Key takeaway The web held, but a new reality emerged: AI shortened both timelines, discovery for defenders and weaponization for attackers.

MACRO RADAR | TUE, OCT 27 · PREVIEW 📡 US DURABLE GOODS: September orders are forecast to rebound 2.0% MoM (prev. -0.1%), with orders excluding transportation expected to rise 0.6%. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: The Conference Board index is expected to fall to 81.2 from 81.9, suggesting continued weakness in household sentiment. NEW HOME SALES: September sales are forecast at 651K annualised, down from 684K in August. MARKET CONTEXT: Aircraft orders can distort headline manufacturing figures, making underlying demand particularly important. Meanwhile, builder confidence has fallen to a 14-year low of 29, with 43% of builders cutting prices. Today's releases will help assess the strength of business demand and household activity ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: Anthropic has filed for a Nasdaq IPO under $ANT, revealing $16.3B in H1 revenue, up from $1.2B a year earlier. Operating losses narrowed to $693M from $2.1B, while more than 1,900 customers now spend at least $1M annually and roughly 250 spend over $10M. A public listing would put frontier AI economics under quarterly scrutiny for the first time, exposing how quickly revenue can catch up with the cost of building and running the models. 🤖

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📰 NEWS: A security flaw in Electrum allowed malicious servers to replace pending Bitcoin transactions with fraudulent payments, tricking users into authorizing transfers to attackers when increasing transaction fees. At least one theft was confirmed before developers released version 4.8.3 to address the vulnerability. 🔐

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: bitcoin:native slipped below $80,000, falling nearly 2% as traders cut risk ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. $ETH dropped almost 3%, XRP about 3%, while Asia’s AI selloff continued, with Goldman Sachs cutting its 12-month KOSPI target by 25%. A stronger signal for a December rate hike would keep borrowing costs elevated, pressuring both tech valuations and crypto liquidity. 📉

📰 NEWS: Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index dropped 2.7% on Sunday, its worst session in 18 months, as renewed fighting with Yemen's Houthis unsettled regional markets. Saudi Aramco fell 0.9%, while Egypt's blue-chip index plunged 3.6%, its steepest daily decline since June 2025. 📉