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Joined August 2025
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How long does your typical winner take to work?
If you don't know, that's worth measuring. It should determine your expiration choice and usually doesn't.
On expiration selection:
Too near and you need to be right immediately. Too far and you're paying for time you won't use.
The right answer isn't universal — it's whatever matches how long your thesis typically takes to resolve.
You'll be wrong. The only question is how much it costs when you are.
That's a sizing question, not a prediction question, and it's fully in your control.
The most useful log line in my system isn't a signal.
It's the one that says a signal was blocked and why. The refusals are where you learn whether the rules are doing anything.
The difference between risk and uncertainty:
Risk is a known distribution. You can size for it.
Uncertainty is not knowing the distribution at all.
Options have defined risk. Markets have uncertainty. Confusing the two is expensive.
What's the first thing you check when someone posts their results?
Mine is whether losses are as visible as wins.
If you'd be embarrassed to explain a trade to another trader, don't take it.
Cheap heuristic. Works surprisingly often.
Something that shows up in every real track record and no marketing material: the trade that closed almost exactly at breakeven.
They're common. They're forgettable. They're also part of the honest number.
Why the same strategy performs differently across tickers:
Different volatility means the same threshold represents a different real-world move. A 2% drop is routine on one name and a once-a-quarter event on another.
Any threshold expressed in percentages is quietly making a judgment about which names it favors.