Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) profile picture

Simon Gleave

@SimonGleave

I have spent over 25 years of my career working with sports data in all its shapes and forms.

 Utrecht, Netherlands
scoreboardjournalism.wordpress.com
Joined November 2009
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Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)Photo by Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave)
🧮How would the Premier League table look if it followed the match odds? 🔴Manchester United would be 3rd with 8 more points 🌳Nottingham Forest would be safe mid-table 🔴Sunderland would have 5 more points and be outside the relegation zone #MUFC #NFFC #SAFC 1/
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🧮How would the Premier League table look if it followed the match odds? ⬆️Arsenal, Brighton & Hove Albion and Hull City are all outperforming market odds and have at least 4 more points than expected at this stage #BHAFC #HCAFC #Arsenal 2//
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Simon Gleave retweeted
Paul Riley (@footballfactman) profile picture
Paul Riley@footballfactmanOct 28
Someone needs to tell the new gen of analytics kids that the further down the pyramid you go (and you don't have to go far) xG's correlation with what actually happens in a season gets worse n worse So stop trying to make out that things will nicely even out. It won't x
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Simon Gleave retweeted
Matt Ramsay (@ramsaymatt) profile picture
Matt Ramsay@ramsaymattOct 27
How bloody enjoyable it is to watch this Cambridge United side. Sheffield Wednesday had their chances, Eastwood with a colossal save at 1-0, but United end the game laying siege in search of a winner at Hillsborough. That’s quite a sentence. Superb response to losing on Saturday.
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🔵Manchester City's chance of finishing in the top-4 has fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks and has now dropped below 50% for the first time. 📌This is a sign of the market expecting a ruling on a points deduction before the end of this season. #MCFC
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🧮How would the Premier League table look if it followed the match odds? 🔴Manchester United would be 3rd with 7 more points 🌳Nottingham Forest would have 5 points more and mid-table 🔴Sunderland would have 4 more points and be outside the relegation zone #MUFC #NFFC #SAFC
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Hull City, Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City are the only teams outperforming match odds expectations by more than 3 points. (see odds table in the message above this one) #hcafc #bhafc #mcfc
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Lots of scoreboard driven conclusions about Liverpool after yesterday. However, given the chances in this game, the most likely result was 1-1 & there were 6 (SIX) results more likely than a 2-0 Liverpool win. Brighton's big chance to go 1-0 up has been forgotten #LFC #LIVBHA
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It seems that I was wrong on this so only fair to post again. The data does include Wirtz's shot so it does make sense - I didn't see it yesterday. Apologies for my confusion.
Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) profile pictureSimon Gleave@SimonGleaveOct 26
Watching Liverpool v Brighton yesterday, it struck me that there is no shot recorded and thus no xG for shots which are deflected into the goal to become own goals. This seems wrong to me. Florian Wirtz still had a shot. I'd guess it was a 20% chance and it was heading wide.
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🧮This season's Premier League table, also with ranks based on xG difference and xG points (allocated per match). I will post this after each round from now on. The interesting teams are: Nottingham Forest Bournemouth Newcastle United Why do you think they don't fit? #EPL
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Watching Liverpool v Brighton yesterday, it struck me that there is no shot recorded and thus no xG for shots which are deflected into the goal to become own goals. This seems wrong to me. Florian Wirtz still had a shot. I'd guess it was a 20% chance and it was heading wide.
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Shouldn't the data record this? The 'own goal part' only comes into play with the deflection and this can be assigned separately. Obviously only a small thing and one which won't interest anyone outside people like me but it seems weird that the shot isn't counted. #LIVBHA
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Fans of many smaller teams will recognise this from their own experiences of the past 20-odd years.
Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) profile pictureMichael Caley
@MC_of_AOct 23
ft.com/content/f75c25c2-4164…
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Real Betis & VfB Stuttgart might be in the current #ChampionsLeague top-8, but there is no jeopardy for the richest teams in the competition. 7 teams have squad values of over €1 billion and all 7 have been projected to qualify directly for the last-16 throughout. #UCL
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Simon Gleave retweeted
Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) profile picture
Simon Gleave@SimonGleaveAug 21
🧵The obvious prediction is everywhere. But in 26 Premier League seasons this century, all three promoted teams have gone straight back down only twice. So what’s actually more likely in 2026/27? #ccfc #itfc #hcafc #PremierLeague 1/
🤖 Made with AI
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Chris (@CWeatherspoon_) profile picture
Chris@CWeatherspoon_Oct 11
What many have not fully grasped is the sheer damage to the wider game done by pouring enormous sums in. Not just City - see Chelsea (twice), PSG - but it goes far beyond doing others out of trophies We hear endlessly of the PL's 'riches' but look at the absolute state of this
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QPR keeper Pierce Charles (on loan from Man City) did similar things during the international break including saving a penalty from Kvaratskhelia, one of the world's best players. His brilliant goalkeeping during Northern Ireland's 4 Nations League games produced 4 clean sheets.
Danny Baker (@prodnose) profile pictureDanny Baker@prodnoseOct 9
Incredible double save from West Ham penalty by the QPR keeper in the 90th minute. Nothing in the international break comes close to this stuff.
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Seemingly unpopular only because rage sells these days and agreeing with something doesn't. Thoroughly enjoyable and, as Michael says, a really good game almost every night. I gave up watching England in qualifiers 30 years ago but I watched these games.
Michael Cox (@Zonal_Marking) profile pictureMichael Cox@Zonal_MarkingOct 9
A seemingly unpopular view but I really enjoyed that international break. I watched a really good game almost every night. I never regretted my £2.49 PPV purchase (and there's no higher praise than that)
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The most laughable stuff is people writing "what is this competition, how does it work" when it is the fifth time it has been held and it is basically the old Euros format (pre-1980) but in a seeded version. So many good things about it.
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The Premier League is back Hull City overperforming the most Tottenham Hotspur the biggest underperformers Bournemouth bang on pre-season expectation @chris_bojke
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Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) profile pictureSimon Gleave@SimonGleaveOct 9
❓Which Premier League club has had the biggest improvement in its expected points compared to pre-season? ❓Which club has had the biggest decline? ⁉️Which club, and there is only one, still has the same expected points as it did pre-season?
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