@SimpleJack
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A macro system research approach to equity markets and crypto by studying things others ignore⚔️👐♟️🐝🎱💎🦍 OlDirtyBastard.ETH
New York, USA
Joined June 2021
- Tweets16.4K
- Following1.8K
- Followers1.9K
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Pinned Tweet
A thread 1/10
TL;DR
A desk that wants GME cheap, contained, or broken does not need a press release. It needs four things:
1. Carry so the short can sit for years
2. A rollable wrap so the short resets without a clean tape print
3. A cheap catastrophe slice so the left tail is sold for income or bought as bankruptcy insurance
4. An unsigned residual so the public never sees one line item called THE SHORT
That is converts + short common + rolling FLEX + the Dec-2027 $5 / $3 GME1 wall.
If those puts were sold, the lean is financed by selling disaster insurance on a name they are already pressing.
If those puts were bought, the lean is a short-stock / short-forward book wearing a $3 crash helmet.
Open interest does not tell you which. The shape is the tell. The motive is what the shape is good for.
$GME @gamestop
SimpleJack retweeted
A thread 1/10
TL;DR
A desk that wants GME cheap, contained, or broken does not need a press release. It needs four things:
1. Carry so the short can sit for years
2. A rollable wrap so the short resets without a clean tape print
3. A cheap catastrophe slice so the left tail is sold for income or bought as bankruptcy insurance
4. An unsigned residual so the public never sees one line item called THE SHORT
That is converts + short common + rolling FLEX + the Dec-2027 $5 / $3 GME1 wall.
If those puts were sold, the lean is financed by selling disaster insurance on a name they are already pressing.
If those puts were bought, the lean is a short-stock / short-forward book wearing a $3 crash helmet.
Open interest does not tell you which. The shape is the tell. The motive is what the shape is good for.
$GME @gamestop
When looking at the bond debt retirement that $GME recently carried out there are few questions you should ask yourself.
1. @gamestop Seniors due March 2021 and the takeout was a voluntary early redemption done in December of 2021. @TheRoaringKitty commented on YouTube that the move was “material”
2. If Dec 11, 2020 was material because Kitty called a >$100M redemption material what word do you use for ~$1.4B cancelled on Sep 3, 2026?
3. That’s ~11× the principal. Same word “material.” Same word “exchange.” Is it the same instrument?
4. 2020 exchange: leftover 6.75%s still due 2021. Holders who swapped got new 10% paper due 2023. Who got the extra date?
5. 2026 exchange: leftover 0%s still due Apr 1, 2030 and Jun 15, 2032. Still 0%. What if anything did or could possibly get extended?
6. Dec 11, 2020 → Jan 13, 2021 = 33 days.
Sep 3, 2026 + 33 = October 6, 2026.
Are you trading the calendar, or the clause?
7. Board authorized a $2B buyback (expires Jun 2, 2029). As of Aug 1, 2026: zero shares bought. That’s stock authority. What did Kitty say about bond debt retirement, capital raises and buybacks a month prior to the “Blip”
8. June 2024 stream talked cash / raise more money / an offering. It did not talk the old note stack, converts, or warrants. How would you classify those?
Just theorizing -No wrong answers. What do you think?
First answers
nitter.cf/simplejack/status/2101…
A thread 1/10
TL;DR
A desk that wants GME cheap, contained, or broken does not need a press release. It needs four things:
1. Carry so the short can sit for years
2. A rollable wrap so the short resets without a clean tape print
3. A cheap catastrophe slice so the left tail is sold for income or bought as bankruptcy insurance
4. An unsigned residual so the public never sees one line item called THE SHORT
That is converts + short common + rolling FLEX + the Dec-2027 $5 / $3 GME1 wall.
If those puts were sold, the lean is financed by selling disaster insurance on a name they are already pressing.
If those puts were bought, the lean is a short-stock / short-forward book wearing a $3 crash helmet.
Open interest does not tell you which. The shape is the tell. The motive is what the shape is good for.
$GME @gamestop
More questions
nitter.cf/simplejack/status/2101…
More questions before answers.
Cheat sheet look into papers/books written by @JanetTavakoli and examine who follow her.
Specifically on the Dec-2027 $5/$3 GME1 wall as we approach warrant delivery expiration:
1. Why attach so far under the convert pricing zone?
2. Why does OI not tell you sold vs bought?
3. If FLEX same strike pairs keep appearing near issue windows, is that a new bet or a roll?
4. What does long convert + short common actually hedge?
5. If you only see the listed slice, who kept the residual?
6. What happens to a “cheap senior” if the disaster actually prints?
7. What happens to the short common if borrow dies on a rip?
8. Are GME and GME1 the same line item in the book that matters?
I have a map. Not a courtroom. Drop yours in replies first.
#GME
9/10
ELI5
Imagine a crew that wants the building cheaper for years.
They do not swing a wrecking ball on camera.
They:
• rent the basement (short common against converts)
• reset the scaffolding every few months (FLEX same-strike pairs)
• buy or sell a dirt-cheap “only if the building actually collapses” policy dated Dec-2027 at $5 and $3
• keep the deed in a room with no window (dealer / residual book)
If the stock dies, the cheap policy either prints money (if they sold it and collected premium while leaning short) or pays the funeral (if they bought it).
If the stock rips, the same crew is the one who has to cover scaffolding, borrow, and residual delta at the same time.
The public argues about memes. The book argues about attachment.
10/10
If you want GME cheaper for a long time, you do not tweet “we hate the stock.”
You own the paper, short the conversion, roll the wrap, and leave a $3 / $5 bomb cap sitting on the calendar like a joke.
The joke is the attachment.
The unsigned book is the wrecking crew.
The tape is what signs it.
Not financial advice. Not a claim that any named fund filed a hit.
Shape of a hostile book, not a courtroom.
Connect the map with primary. Do not decorate it with a villain if the villain is still a blank line. Work together.
@michaeljburry and @JanetTavakoli any insight or thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
More questions before answers.
Cheat sheet look into papers/books written by @JanetTavakoli and examine who follow her.
Specifically on the Dec-2027 $5/$3 GME1 wall as we approach warrant delivery expiration:
1. Why attach so far under the convert pricing zone?
2. Why does OI not tell you sold vs bought?
3. If FLEX same strike pairs keep appearing near issue windows, is that a new bet or a roll?
4. What does long convert + short common actually hedge?
5. If you only see the listed slice, who kept the residual?
6. What happens to a “cheap senior” if the disaster actually prints?
7. What happens to the short common if borrow dies on a rip?
8. Are GME and GME1 the same line item in the book that matters?
I have a map. Not a courtroom. Drop yours in replies first.
#GME
What's in the box?! METAL GEAR SOLID DELTA: SNAKE EATER New Gameplay youtu.be/_NyoPCOVifI?is=y3fj… via @YouTube
