Veteran psephologist. BBC Election Night broadcaster 1950 - 1979, then radio and press to 2010. Pioneer of swingometer and swing theory. Author of 30+ books.
Oxford, England
Joined May 2017
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Ninety three today. I'm not about to start tweeting again, but look forward to the fascinating politics of the coming year.
Learning to tweet at 92 has been fun. But my musings should now be confined to elections, so I am signing off . . . until next year?
I have enjoyed my flirtation with Tweeting – and thank you for all the feedback. It’s wonderful to rediscover one is never too old to learn.
Significantly more variation in swing this time both by region and amount than in any post-war election.
Sir David Butler retweeted
**In the betting markets Jeremy Corbyn is now favourite to be the next Prime Minister of Britain**
If net poll forecasts of a 7-8% Tory lead are accurate, one would certainly expect an increased majority
Rain can play a part - but it’s small. Lab voters go to polls later, so evening showers potentially hurt Lab more.
The polls have moved a great deal over the past two weeks. When people ask me for a prediction, I have to say I know that I don’t know.
The Con lead varies from 12 – 1%. The polls are likely to converge, but if they don’t some pollsters will be embarrassed.