Space & Astronomy enthusiast / Rocket Lab investor since 2021 / +7,000% since 2022
Joined July 2022
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Congrats $IREN holders on great earnings. Not a company I own, I still prefer Nebius, but management truly delivered on that Q3.
90% customer prepayments should shut up a lot of FUD with regards to capex/credit issues.
$NBIS now trades at a lower forward P/S than Coca-Cola or Procter&Gamble
😅
$NBIS now trading at 18.7x trailing P/S (or about 3.7x forward P/S)
Probably about 6-8x ARR (we will know in one week).
That's the way established, low-growth companies are priced.
If there was ever a capitalization bubble for AI companies, it is long blown.
A few random forward P/S for comparison:
$NBIS: 4x
$PG: 4x
$GOOG: 6x
$KO: 8x
$MSFT: 8x
$AAPL: 10x
$LLY: 12x
$SPCX: 15x
You'll notice that Nebius's forward P/S is trading on par or lower than established companies, including ones unrelated to AI. It can be argued that Nebius is not yet profitable and it is not guaranteed that it will reach its objectives next year, but I will not accept arguments that the stock is currently overvalued. It is not.
That's a pretty lame AI bubble if you ask me
Adrian Soweski 🦛 retweeted
🚨 $NBIS will report its Q3 2026 results on November 12, before the market open.
$NBIS
Fun fact:
If the stock were priced today the way it was in June, we would be trading at 450$. 😅
Easy
Another important deal for $NRXS!
A new major national health insurer has introduced medical policy coverage for PENFS across multiple states, representing ~26M medical plan members.
Total covered lives now exceed 147M.
The stock is up 18% today.
“We anticipate additional coverage gains from major insurers and are expanding our sales capabilities to support both our growing coverage footprint and the opportunities ahead.”
Happy shareholder.
$NBIS And just like that...
Trailing P/S today: 26.9x
Trailing P/S in October 2027: 5.4x
Trailing P/S in October 2028: 1.1x
Trailing P/S in October 2029: 0.2x
Leave the stock where it is and we can play this game for a while. Fear is almighty in this market, but the company continues to deliver. Customers are fighting for compute.
Leave the stock where it is until it becomes ridiculous
$NBIS
Pay attention to the light green line (30x).
We just crossed that resistance and now have a trailing P/S of 27.8x.
Until revenue is officially updated early November, the market might not realize how cheap the stock has become...
We need to endure 4 more weeks.
$NBIS is the cheapest it has ever been.
According to my model, daily adjusted trailing P/S currently sits at 30.6x, a number we have never seen before. What that means:
If the stock doesn't move, we would see a trailing P/S of 6x in October 2027;
Another year, we would see a trailing P/S of 1.2x in October 2028.
Companies with a P/S that low include HSBC, Citi, or Amazon. Those companies have a revenue growth rate typically located between 10 and 20%.
Nebius's revenue growth rate is closer to 400%.
In other words: Time will adjust things naturally. We either grow or get derisked.
$NBIS
Trailing P/S (adjusted daily, 927M estimated revenue for Q3) is currently at 32.6x. 30x is the lower Nebius has ever touched. We might see a steep bounceback in the next few days.
