Prediction markets have upset the sports info market, as @adamlevitan and @EstablishTheRun take their props private and @RufusPeabody walls up his CFB index, w/ @SquirrelSigma and @capjack2000 with the color on this one ... ingame.com/prediction-market…

“We’re going to make a store that sells everything.” > Great. So people can take what they want to the register and pay for it? “No. They’re going to bring a little white ticket to the register and pay for it.” > Oh. Okay. Then the cashier gets whatever they bought and brings it to them? “No. Then they bring the receipt to another area and shows it to a second cashier.” > Ah. Nice. So the stuff is waiting for them by the time they get there? “No. Someone in the back will send it out using an elaborate conveyer belt system.”

How Much Do You Bet With A $5000 Bankroll?

Wait wait wait wait ... a for-profit company is using data to get me to spend more money with them? Pearls, clutched. ingame.com/nyt-draftkings-ga…

Sports betting gets plenty of criticism. I’m not here to argue against it. However, there is another side to it. I never imagined I’d be trading options on my own. Yet after years of poker and betting, I learned it's the same language. You’re either backing a favorite at a good number or betting an underdog the market has mispriced. I’ve spent the last year applying those same principles with confidence. Used recklessly, betting can be destructive. Used responsibly, it can teach probability, price, risk management and how to make decisions under uncertainty. All of those lessons travel.

A 29-year-old pest control salesman says he bets on sports every day, wagering between $80,000 and $120,000 a year — as much as or more than his $97,000 salary. He tells @JimAxelrod he sometimes puts an entire paycheck on his bets. cbsnews.com/news/sports-bett…

About a year ago I had a call with a journalist at a major publication, who had obtained a public figure’s betting records. The man had wagered ten times his (publicly available) salary in the past year, and the journalist was planning an expose. They called me to learn about money laundering, how one could use stolen funds to gamble, and what tools gambling companies had to ensure people didn’t lose more than they could afford. About three minutes in, I asked them how much the man had deposited and lost. The journalist was confused; “I just told you, he’s gambled more than $4 million.” “Yes,” I responded, “but how much did he LOSE? If I bet $100 on red twice and win once, I will have gambled $200 but netted $0. Amount gambled is a worthless statistic on its own.” We went back and forth for a few minutes, and the call was ended after I told them I couldn’t comment until I had more details. I never heard from the journalist again, and the story never ran. I’m not sure exactly what happened, although after asking around about the guy my best guess is that he was churning through some sort of online promotion, meaning the “$4 million wagered” had almost no correlation to the amount he won or lost gambling. Of course, the vast majority of people who gamble, in any form, will lose. At roulette and blackjack they’ll probably lose between 2-5% of what they wager, usually the same for sports betting or prediction markets unless they’re betting parlays in which case it’s likely between 10-20%. More people gambling necessarily means more people losing, and gambling losses all too frequently substitute for saving, investment, and other important expenses, meaning the spread of gambling is associated with widespread financial harm. But please, journalists, if you are going to cover gambling well you need to understand and articulate the difference between gambling LOSSES and gambling HANDLE. The guy in the video below is obviously gambling in a way likely to endanger his finances; one should never put their whole paycheck on the line. But *even if he does* gamble his entire salary in a year, that’s very different than spending his entire salary on drugs or alcohol, because he’s likely to get at least 80-90% back of what he puts in.

Breaking: the big tax bill with a provision to repeal the 90% cap on gambling losses was just overwhelmingly voted through, with bipartisan support, to the House Rules Committee. It’s a technical step before it goes to the House floor for a full vote.

It is noticeable that when Pin ups limits from like 5k to 10k suddenly there’s a rush of liquidity added to PM order books.

September 11, 1995: Monday Night Football in Chicago, a Bears fan jumps into the tunnel to successfully catch an extra point ball.

The American Gaming Association cites Dustin Gouker six times in a 13 page memo filed in support of New York state targeting prediction markets.

Who owns the land underneath the casinos on Fremont Street? The answers are simply batshit crazy and, you guessed it, we dove headlong down the batshit-crazy rabbit hole. casino.org/vitalvegas/land-o…

NFL volume is going to explode today @AldrinResearch monitors it all: trading volume, product launches, growth strategies and much more that's why top operators, Wall Street analysts, market makers and newsrooms trust us to cover prediction markets reach out if your team is interested in our research - my DMs are open

We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…

SCOOP: FanDuel and other sports betting operators are market making on Kalshi. In its Q1 earnings report, FanDuel-parent Flutter announced that it was market making "on a major, third-party prediction market platform.” That platform is Kalshi, according to a person familiar with the matter. Many other sports betting operators are trading on Kalshi, too, according to a Kalshi spokesperson. “FanDuel competes with thousands of other users in a fair environment on an open platform,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “If a regular user wants to offer a better price, or market make on the same terms, they can. There’s no special deal just for FanDuel. We have hundreds of market makers on combos, including individuals.” FanDuel’s trading on Kalshi is concentrated in combo trades, where multiple individual yes-or-no predictions are linked together for a massive payout if each prediction proves correct. When a trader builds a combo, power-users and institutional players on Kalshi’s platform—known as market makers—offer competing bids to take the other side of the combo bets. From FanDuel’s perspective, market making for combo trades on Kalshi is not so different from setting parlay odds on its sportsbook. “It’s a way of us making money from our pricing expertise,” Flutter CEO Peter Jackson previously told me in an interview. “That’s ultimately what we do in our core business.” That market-making opportunity is growing quickly. Kalshi saw $21.4 billion in combo trading volume over the past 30 days, according to @AldrinResearch, accounting for 49% of all trading volume on its platform. @FanDuel and other operators’ presence on @Kalshi underscores the similarities between sports betting on prediction markets and sportsbooks. No matter how they wager on Sunday football, retail traders and casual bettors are up against professional oddsmakers.

“Our head of trading operations reported a 30x increase in request volume in the six hours before kickoff versus the average for the preseason games,” said @SquirrelSigma.

NFL model 🚀

Tiny sample, but @DraftKings' DKeX with ~16% share of football-labeled Contract Volume on 9/9 (NFL kickoff), per @EilersKrejcik tracking. @Novig with an impressive ~13%. Data here excludes combo-labeled CV, of which @Kalshi had ~89% share and @Polymarket ~6% on 9/9. The CV view within individual sports and leagues—and within combo—is revealing a U.S. sports prediction markets ... market that is fast becoming more competitive.

Weaver, a Republican, filed HB 5811, which would eliminate the definition of an exchange wager and a provision that taxes such bets. The bill was filed Sept. 2. More here -- ingame.com/illinois-predicti…