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Tracking $IREN and $CIFR, data centers, AI power & Bitcoin | Texas energy + construction updates | Non-financial advice | 💙💛 Football.

Joined June 2021
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$CIFR here is the promised DD report
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Hi @nejatian, Yesterday’s earnings call was a clear failure for shareholders. The share price reaction is the least of it. you set expectations, then missed them, and confirmed that even under new leadership this business still can’t deliver in a weak housing market. The optimism you showed earlier this year looks reckless in hindsight. You’re buying market share, but the numbers show what that is actually costing us: thin margins, swelling inventory, and a profitability target that has now slipped. High volume with low contribution profit and elevated risk is not a win. It’s how you destroy value. I’m also done ignoring the labelling risk you disclosed in the 10-Q. If Opendoor is classified as a “large institutional investor” under the ROAD Act and no real exemption is granted, your ability to buy and sell homes gets restricted. That is a direct threat to the core model. It should have been front and center on the call, not buried in the filing. Matheson leaving already looked like someone who concluded this company isn’t getting to sustainable profitability anytime soon. After this print and the regulatory overhang, a lot of us are now worried you’re going to reach the same conclusion and walk. I understand the environment is difficult. That doesn’t excuse over-promising or leaving investors exposed to risks you didn’t clearly own on the call. We need straight answers on the ROAD Act exposure and a realistic path forward not more ambition that doesn’t show up in the numbers. - Just a concerned bagholder $OPEN
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$IREN give me more of that days 💚
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$IREN Q1 FY27 (Sep qtr): the facts behind the FUD (MUST READ) ‼️ AI Cloud revenue $200M (+182% QoQ) at 86% gross margin. 🟢 Total revenue $228M Adj. EBITDA $66M (29% margin). Operating ARR ~$1B. Backlog $20.3B One date moved; financing is the debate What the call and 10-Q say 👇 2/ FUD: “The $4B ARR slip means the Microsoft deal is in trouble.” Facts: target moved from YE26 to Jan 31, 2027 (risk: end-Feb). Cause: a Microsoft-requested network redesign across 200MW + supplier timing. Contracts and funding unchanged; extra capex immaterial per mgmt. 3/ Childress status: - H1: in service (NVIDIA Exemplar, GB300) - H2: GPUs racked, fiber in, Dell commissioning - H3: GPUs on site, halls energized - H4: GPUs arriving in coming weeks 10-K grace window for H2–4 runs to start of CY Q2 2027. 4/ FUD: “They can’t fund the build-out.” Remaining FY27 capex ≈ $15B: $9B covered (cash, committed GPU debt, prepayments), $6B still to raise. The 0.3GW behind >$4B ARR is funded, subject to conditions. CFO: $12–15B of indicative sources vs the $6B, before converts/equity. 5/ FUD: “Capex cut = weak demand.” Mgmt: spend was flexed down for capital-market reasons, not demand. IREN owns land, power and data centers (no colo leases), so it can pace builds, and hasn’t bought all 2027 GPUs. My math: implied FY27 capex ~$20B vs $25–30B before. 6/ FUD: “Debt is exploding.” Net debt $4.4B (vs $0.2B in June); total debt $10.2B, mostly low-coupon converts due 2032+. ~$6B of data centers unencumbered. GPU debt: $6.5B since May at 6–9.5%, Microsoft-backed tranche ~6%. Caveat: GPU 2.0/3.0 loans carry IREN guarantees. 7/ FUD: “Compute demand is rolling over.” Signed since quarter-end: - 5-yr at ~$22M/MW, customer prepays ~90% of GPU capex - Short-term >$40M/MW - Frontier AI lab expanded again - H100s re-contracted at 2x, multi-year Q1 pricing: +11% (3-yr), +12% (5-yr). 8/ Backlog $20.3B (+22% QoQ), ~2/3 investment grade (Microsoft, NVIDIA). Sites: Sweetwater 1.4GW grid-connected (2GW hub in ERCOT Batch Zero), Mackenzie 100MW, Badajoz 300MW, Redbank 900MW. >5GW secured; 35GW pipeline is early-stage. Goal: 0.8GW by end-2027. 9/ What’s not solved: 🚨 - Dec qtr is a bridge: ~$250M AI Cloud rev, cash opex +$50–60M - SBC $106M; 3 customers = 70% of revenue - Op cash flow +$529M relied on $645M of prepayments - $6B still to raise; DC financing not yet closed - $1.5B GPU facility window ends Dec 31 10/ Bottom line: operations and demand signals strengthened; the open questions are financing cost/timing and delivery by Jan–Feb. Watch: H2–4 acceptance, data center financing, the $4B ARR date.
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From: $IREN Investors To: @danroberts0101 Subject: Please don’t mess it up! Hello Mr Roberts, Pls address all the FUD and bring some light into darkness. - Talk about future financing - delays on Horizon and will it affect other locations too? - demand for future compute from Hyperscalers? - only pay yourself if you created shareholder value. From ‘when deal?’ to ‘are we cooked?’ Your concerned shareholders!
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$IREN $NBIS Bloomberg reported (citing people familiar with the matter) that Microsoft is tightening oversight of certain data center projects involving neoclouds including IREN, Nebius, and Nscale. The company is stepping away from projects it views as riskier and is internally debating whether to sign additional neocloud deals. The damage is already done. Now we get the worst possible news. @danroberts0101 you better tell us this is not true.
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$IREN back in the teens. Absolutely crazy.
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$IREN 9 green days 🟢 out of the last 31 days 🔴
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$NVAX DOUBLE BEAT AND RAISE 🟢🟢 Q3: Rev $68M (beat ~$50M est, -3% YoY) | EPS -$0.19 (beat ~-$0.35) | Net loss narrowed to $31M (vs $202M YoY). Raised FY26 adj. total rev guide to $385-415M (+$145M). Product sales $26M (+91%). $125M Sanofi CIC Ph3 milestone earned. Cash $627M. Cost cuts continuing.
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$APP monster earnings! Finally a position that is in profit for me 🥲
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Yesterday I sold a car, I am really thinking about investing it in $IREN and $CIFR 🧐
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$IREN $CIFR as we are all desperate, what are your thoughts on the current situation? Let’s create a self-helf group. Just share your thoughts 👇🏼
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$CIFR you left Bitcoin Why you doing a Halfing every week 🥲
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$OPEN flying 🚀
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$IREN $CIFR our new Data Center 🌈🦄 Every data center site has their own pronounces! The racks inside are all built on the left site. The GPUs inside have RGB LED so they look like a rainbow $TSLA cars not allowed on the parking
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$IREN $CIFR What you need to know AFTER midterms🚨 Gina Hinojosa’s data center agenda as Texas Governor — risks and the bullish case for $IREN and $CIFR 👇🏼👇🏼 Her stated priorities are consistent across campaign materials and recent statements: • Moratorium on new data center permits until stronger statewide protections pass • End to tax subsidies (including electricity sales-tax exemptions) • Local community control + ban on NDAs • Projects must prove no increase in household power or water bills • Union labor requirements on construction She has indicated the pause is aimed at new approvals, not projects already under construction with power secured. Bullish points🟢 • Scarcity premium: Slowing new supply makes existing powered capacity more valuable. Texas already has constrained ERCOT power; a permit moratorium reinforces that constraint. • Incumbents protected: Sites with power, permits, and steel in the ground are far more resilient. Barriers to entry rise for competitors. • Pricing power: Reduced future capacity additions support higher rates for available AI/HPC compute over time. Risks ‼️ New Texas greenfield pipeline faces longer timelines, higher costs, and more local opposition. Companies with heavy reliance on unpermitted or early-stage Texas sites will feel this most. • $IREN — relatively strongest positioning. Childress is already delivering to Microsoft. Sweetwater has conditional ERCOT status, an energized substation, and active construction. Existing assets and geographic diversification outside Texas provide a buffer. • $CIFR — more Texas-exposed, so higher near-term pipeline risk, but its contracted, near-term sites (Black Pearl, Barber Lake) benefit from the same scarcity dynamic if they remain on track. Any capacity that clears the new rules becomes more differentiated. Policy raises the cost and difficulty of new Texas supply. That is a headwind for pure pipeline stories and a relative tailwind for operators who already control scarce, approved power capacity. The exact legislative language in January will determine how wide the gap becomes between existing assets and new development.
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$CIFR only 12% ?? You can do much BETTER 😏🚀
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$OPEN launched It’s a full home-buying service (not just for Opendoor-owned houses). You get:🟢 • A dedicated Opendoor agent who helps you find homes, book tours, and make offers on any house (theirs or someone else’s). • Their loan team (Opendoor Home Loans) working with the agent from start to finish. • Lower mortgage rates and fees by using Opendoor’s scale. They claim the better rate can be worth up to about $20,000 in savings. How it works right now: 1. Join the waitlist (enter your phone number). 2. Their team contacts you. 3. Once fully live, one team handles everything from searching → touring → offering → financing → closing.
Today, we are launching Buy with Opendoor in beta in Texas. Use all of Opendoor’s scale to buy any home, Opendoor’s or not. Save tens of thousands of dollars on your mortgage and fees. opendoor.com/buywithopendoor
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$IREN Goldman Sachs CEO just said AI compute demand “far exceeds the supply” right now — and will for at least the next few years. David Solomon at today’s HK summit: • robust AI demand ✅ • Tech supercycle dominating capital markets 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼 • Robust financing expected next 12-24 months✅✅✅ 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻 • Still early in the infrastructure buildout • Expect recalibrations & stops/starts (not a straight line) • Long-term value shifts to the application layer Nobody knows the winners in 5-10 years. The opportunities are enormous anyway.
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