Optimistic capitalist. Understanding what’s important. Explaining it. Fixing it.
Washington, DC
Joined October 2017
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Summit Global Strategies retweeted
Turning US stocks into digital assets risks bringing crypto-like dangers into the equity market with few accompanying benefits, writes @PaulJDavies bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Perhaps the biggest economic impact of the election.
A crackdown on data centers after Democrats swept the midterm elections reduces the chances of an economic downturn by keeping the AI boom in check. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Anything that you subsidize, you get more of. In this case, it's healthcare that no one can afford. nytimes.com/2026/10/30/busin…
It’s hard to recall a time with such a large disconnect between how Americans feel about the economy and the data. via @WSJopinion wsj.com/opinion/economy-gdp-…
Policy is about tradeoffs, and in the case of the Fed, it's between inflation and unemployment. And we can see the results: the former line is consistently above the target--and rising, the latter is consistently at or below. The balance of risks seems clear.
Recalling the old Sesame Street game "which one of these things doesn't belong here":
-GDP growth is 3.4%
-PCE inflation is 3.6%
-The Fed is on hawkish pause
1/4 @djheakin nails it on the head: To think that inflation will return to 2 percent without action is just (continued) magical thinking. via @AAF #taylorrule americanactionforum.org/dail…
3/4 Inflation is roughly 3.0 percent, while the inflation target is 2.0 percent. Finally, most estimates of the equilibrium real rate run around 1 percent. Plugging all this in yields a Taylor Rule target rate of 4.5 percent.
The hot September CPI and PPI underscore a second straight lost year for getting inflation down. via @NickTimiraos
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady Wednesday, but it is a closer call on the data than the market-implied probabilities suggest.
The case for hiking:
1) The hot September CPI and PPI underscore a second straight lost year for getting inflation down
2) With a Dec hike widely expected, hawks will argue that there's less to gain from waiting six weeks given the cost of falling further behind
3) Hawks will also argue that policy isn't restrictive and needs to be
The case for holding:
1) If officials still think this is a 2-3 hike recalibration, spacing out remaining moves costs little. "Being six weeks late is a manageable risk," says Rob Kaplan
2) Back-to-back moves could signal a faster cycle than officials intend
3) After several officials signaled no rush, and Warsh’s silence let odds of a hold build, a surprise hike days before the midterms would be a jolt. The Fed has raised rates right before elections, but not as a surprise
wsj.com/economy/central-bank…
Anybody else noticing how more and more everyday vendors—like doctor offices, auto repair shops—charging 3 1/2% to use a credit card?
It’s funny when people make everything about themselves, and then don’t like it when other people make everything about them, too.
Even pro-AI government officials and lawmakers wish AI founders would do what every other major industry chief does — shut up and just build their products ... safely.
axios.com/2026/10/24/ai-ceos…
Summit Global Strategies retweeted
"The surprising popularity of AI. Unlike rich Westerners, many around the world feel hopeful about the technology." economist.com/international/…
