Silver Fox

In 1995 I didn't start getting aggressive in the market until April... long after the indexes bottomed. It turned out to be one of my biggest years up 412%. Bottom picking in unnecessary for big returns, but risk management is. You want the right price, not the lowest.

During my 40 years trading none of my success came from picking a bottom right at the low. The low happens on one day, the bull market last for years. The big money is made spotting trends not bottoms.

FOMC meeting this week. Most "expect"+75bps. The market's reaction to Aug CPI report was one of 10 worst since 1970, but most occurred near market bottoms; the return going forward averaged about 19% over 6-months with a near 90% win rate.

As I read comments on Twitter, I realize that few have learned their lesson about risk. Many are still buying dog shit stocks in nose dive downtrends hoping & wishing they bottom fished a bargain. Even if you get the occasional big winner, it's an illusion; a losing proposition.

The funny thing is... it's just the opposite; the individual "little guy" investor has the big advantage. The problem is... complaining and blaming is easier than hard work and responsibility.

The key to consistent trading success is to make every move one that starts with getting odds on your money and then progressively improve your worst case scenario to create asymmetrical leverage (that doesn't mean the use of actual leverage). This sentence is worth million$.

When it comes to forecasting stock prices, there are two kinds of investors: those who don't know and those who don't know that they don't know.