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Markets, Time & Sundry...
Joined February 2013
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2026 Outlook: Apologies
I have decided to forego this year's Outlook. My apologies, as family and other matters have taken over my weekends of late.
But here's a taste of what I see as we develop deeper into the war cycle and end of socialism political cycle.
INDEXES: $NQ Nasdaq
Even though price pushed up into a slight new high internally, it's a pause prior to seeing true moves Wed-Thurs. Structurally, looks to have completed the little waves iv and v for the C of X, or Alternatively, wave-i of blue iii. Which sets up quite the Time
Steve Henderson retweeted
I've been harping on Effective Altruism (EA) a lot lately.
This article explains the philosophy behind EA and why I consider it so alarming and important to stop.
Look forward to my project release mapping the EA network tomorrow.
Steve Henderson retweeted
Read this and understand.
It is vital to your future and the future of anyone you love.
There is a cult that wants your AI.
You won’t let them.
Steve Henderson retweeted
PRESIDENT TRUMP: I have a big decision to make. Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before — maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness?
Steve Henderson retweeted
.@POTUS: There is no human right to illegal immigration — but there IS a right to remain a sovereign nation.
Steve Henderson retweeted
It’s turning out to be the trip from hell for Albanese.
The Trump administration just issued a shot across the bow, warning that his Digital Duty of Care bill will be treated as facilitating censorship .
Demanding Australia exclude US social media companies like X and YouTube from the bill entirely.
We’ve reached the point where Trump has to strong arm Albo in order to protect our free speech public square.
Crazy times.
Remember when Trump was deemed a fool on Greenland? The hyperbole and pushback from Europe and anyone with a haughty laugh always seem to end one way...it's kindergarten versus non-globalist realists.
Steve Henderson retweeted
Ms Inman-Grant won’t like this.
Let’s see her try and rebuff Trump.
BREAKING
Trump Administration warns it will treat as censorship 'facilitating censorship' Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's proposed crackdown on algorithms.
Source: au.usembassy.gov/u-s-governm…
Steve Henderson retweeted
“When I ran the DOJ’s Weaponization Working Group, I looked inside the emails of Lisa Monaco and Jack Smith — these rogue prosecutors. What did I see? They were gleefully targeting people.
Think about where we live today; look at what happened the past few years. They shot Donald Trump, they killed Charlie Kirk, and they put hundreds of people in a gulag. And they tried to destroy so many, they tried to destroy their families.
They tried to kill them and kill their wives and kids.”
-@eagleedmartin, August 29, 2026, @WeaponizeWatch Strength of America Dinner
nypost.com/2026/09/20/opinio…
Steve Henderson retweeted
Dario and Sam have been checkmated.
The game is officially over.
They are in to a new theatrical show.
Get ready.
Steve Henderson retweeted
I’m so tired of these freaking losers, and my @townhallcom column is not kind to them…
“Twenty years ago, people would’ve thought you were crazy if you told them that Karl Rove would be welcomed onto the pages of the regime media to announce that his powerful principles require him to vote for a Democrat who believes you should carve up little boys and girls to conform to the trendy gender delusions of their Munchausen mommies. But in 2026, when he did that, nobody was surprised. Nobody was shocked. After all, betrayal is the old Republican establishment’s brand.”
The Last Stand of Rove, Cornyn, and the Establishment Frauds townhall.com/columnists/kurt…
Steve Henderson retweeted
It’s extremely sad to hear the Premier of South Australia talking about people primarily as economic units; what they cost the budget, what they contribute in tax, and what fiscal return they provide. A nation is so much more than a balance sheet and South Australia is more than an economy.
What about culture? What about community, continuity and belonging? What about the character of South Australia that generations of South Australians have built and or inherited? Of course economics matters and skilled migration can bring enormous benefits but Australians born here are not a “net cost” to be compared against imported labour as though we’re competing entries on a Treasury spreadsheet. People are citizens, families and communities; not just fiscal units. When our political leaders lose sight of that distinction, we lose something far more valuable than a line item in a budget.
Right after performing a land acknowledgement for Indigenous peoples, Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas makes a case for replacing the entire population of Australia with migrants because native born Australians are apparently too much of a fiscal burden.
''Here's the ripping beauty of skilled migrants: they arrive job-ready at relatively low cost. A couple of years ago, federal Treasury estimated that the average Australian-born resident — Aussies born here — has a lifetime net cost to public budgets of $85,000. Net cost. Whereas average skilled migrants deliver a net $198,000 benefit to public budgets over their lifetime in this country. For a single primary skilled migrant, that number rises to a lifetime surplus of $415,000 net benefit.
Now, on the one hand I find these numbers staggering, but on the other hand it makes perfect sense when you think it through. Skilled visa recipients arrive in their prime working age, immediately able to get to work and pay tax, where a child born in Australia relies on public investment in education and training for decades before they reach the workforce.''
He then concedes that Australian productivity growth has collapsed over the past few years just as we have embarked on the largest mass migration program in our national history. His solution here is to import more migrants to fix our productivity problems.
He simply refuses to engage with recent studies which found that just 12% of the overall Permanent Migration Program goes specifically to offshore independent skilled workers.
Finally he straight up lies and argues that Australia will not be able to build AUKUS nuclear submarines without mass migration, even though the cleared AUKUS workforce is limited to Australian citizens only.
What a catastrophic speech.
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Steve Henderson retweeted
Canadians: “oh so you were aboot to buy potash from Russia ya hoser?”
Also Canadians: “you got any EVs to buy so I can go to Tim Hortons before my Sunday pond hockey match?”
Steve Henderson retweeted
The upshot of the IGR and Labor policy is that Australians face decades of
- debt & sclerotic growth
- high taxes
- falling living standards
- expensive housing
- plummeting birth rates as Australians cannot afford to have children
& so migration numbers can stay high
#Auspol
Steve Henderson retweeted
note: plenty of UUVs on these babies + China's crewed submersibles can remain submerged for up to 10-hours.
Even a year ago, China was smashing capability expectations in the Arctic - pioneering mobile "ship-submersible coordination in dense sea ice, enabling precise navigation and safe surfacing amid drifting ice floes...making China the first country to conduct continuous manned deep-sea dives in the heavily ice-covered Arctic Ocean".
China having a physical presence + continuous monitoring (eyes and ears) *under* the Arctic ice is pretty much normal programming in 2026.
english.cas.cn/newsroom/news…
🇨🇳🇺🇸 Chinese ships keep turning up off Alaska, which is exactly why America is locking China out of Greenland...
Four Chinese research vessels have sailed through the U.S. Arctic this year, close to last year's total of five already, running through the Aleutians and the Bering Strait with some pushing all the way to the North Pole, according to the Coast Guard's Arctic commander.
They stayed in international waters but never gave notice, and the Coast Guard is watching whether they're scouting seabed deposits of lithium, cobalt and rare earths or hunting for a military edge.
Beijing calls itself a "near-Arctic" state and runs icebreakers the Pentagon says double as military research platforms.
The Greenland deal Trump signs Tuesday bars any adversary from bases or sensitive investments on the island without Washington's approval and adds two new American bases, which reads very differently next to this.
Locking down Greenland is the right call, because the Arctic holds the minerals and the shortest paths to the U.S. homeland, and Beijing is clearly doing its homework there.
Source: Daily Caller, Reuters / Writer: Daniel
Steve Henderson retweeted
Is Poland Saving Western Civilization? 🇵🇱🏛️🗽
A US Senator asked the question. It deserves a serious answer.
The short answer is: we are trying. We have done it before. We know what it costs.
The longer answer requires understanding why the view from Warsaw is the clearest available – and why the diagnosis of what is happening to the West keeps coming from the East.
1. Poland has been at the intersection of the two great totalitarianisms of the twentieth century. Not as an observer – as the primary victim. The Nazi-Soviet Pact of 1939 was not an alliance between opposites. It was a cooperation between variants of the same system – two collectivisms dividing between them the country that stood in the way. We lost six million people. We lost Warsaw, rebuilt stone by stone from memory. We lost forty-five years to Soviet occupation. And then, in 1989, we did something nobody thought possible: we got out. Not through revolution – through the slow, patient, organized accumulation of resistance that the system could not finally contain. The word for what we learned in that process is zakłamanie – the systematic societal lie that the system requires to function. We know it from the inside. We know its smell, its texture, its specific weight in a room. When we see it operating in Western institutions, we recognize it immediately. The West is still learning the vocabulary. We have been living inside it.
2. This is not the first time Poland has stood at the hinge of Western history.
Vienna 1683 – Sobieski rode down the hill with the Polish Winged Hussars cavalry when the Ottoman army was at the gates of Europe and everyone else was calculating the cost of resistance. He didn’t calculate. He rode.
1920 – the Battle of Warsaw stopped the Red Army from reaching Western Europe. Lord D’Abernon called it the eighteenth decisive battle of world history. If Warsaw had fallen, the revolution would have probably reached Germany, France, the West – before it had produced the antidotes. The course of the twentieth century would have been different. It didn’t fall.
1980 – Solidarity cracked the Iron Curtain when cracking it seemed impossible.
1989 – Poland again – the Round Table agreement that began the democratic domino effect across Eastern Europe started in Warsaw.
The pattern is not coincidence. It is geography, history, and the specific formation that comes from being the country that cannot afford to be wrong about power.
3. The wound produces the clarity. This is the key mechanism. Poland has been processed by both totalitarianisms – has lived inside the systematic lie, has learned what it costs to name it and what it costs not to, has developed the cultural antibodies that the West is now discovering it needs and does not have. The smile that doesn’t come easily. The directness that sounds harsh to ears trained on managed reality. The instinct to name what is happening before the naming becomes dangerous – because we have lived in the world where it becomes dangerous, and we know how fast that transition occurs. The West looks at Eastern Europe and sees countries that haven’t quite caught up. Eastern Europe looks at the West and sees countries that are catching down – toward something we recognize, something we spent decades trying to escape, something we would very much prefer not to return to.
4. The vocabulary is the contribution. Zakłamanie – systemic societal lying, the managed reality that corrupts categories of thought. Obłuda – performative hypocrisy, the mask of falsehood worn so long it becomes the face. The Systemic Lie – not individual dishonesty but the institutionalized replacement of truth with the appearance of truth across every surface simultaneously. These are not theoretical concepts. They are survival tools, developed by a civilization that needed them to survive. When this series uses them to describe what is happening in Brussels, in Paris, in the captured universities and the content moderation departments and the fact-checking organizations – it is not importing foreign concepts. It is returning concepts to the civilization that produced the conditions requiring them, with the precision that comes from having had to use them in earnest.
5. The series you are reading is one answer to the Senator’s question. Not the only answer. The most important answer is Poland itself: the country that has maintained its civilizational vitality while Western Europe collapses, that has built a functioning economy while its neighbors stagnate, that has maintained its identity while the managed reality tries to dissolve it, that has said no to the mechanisms of the long march with a clarity that comes from knowing exactly what those mechanisms lead to. Poland is not perfect. No country is. But it is one of the few places in the Western world where the question "what are we for?" has a clear answer – and where that answer is transmitted, generation to generation, in the family, the church, the school, the culture, with the urgency of people who know what happens when the transmission fails.
6. Musk reposts. Milei reposts. A US Senator asks the question. European politicians stay silent. This distribution of attention is itself diagnostic. The people who are fighting the managed reality recognize the vocabulary because they need it. The people who are maintaining it stay silent because they recognize it for what it is – a threat to the system that produced them and that they are producing in turn. The silence of European institutions is not ignorance. It is acknowledgment. They know what is being said. They know it is true. They know that engaging with it on its own terms would require admitting things that the system cannot admit and remain the system.
7. Is Poland saving Western civilization? The question assumes that saving is something one country does for another. It is not. It is something a civilization does for itself – through the specific people and places that have maintained the clearest view of what the civilization is, what threatens it, and what it costs to defend it. Poland is one of those places. The wound is real. The clarity it produces is real. The vocabulary it generates is being used, right now, by people on every continent who are trying to name what is happening to their countries and find the courage to say so.
There is a Polish motto that captures this precisely – one that has accompanied every Polish fight for freedom since the nineteenth century: Za wolność naszą i waszą. For your freedom and ours. It was the motto of the Polish officers who fought in the uprisings against the partitioning powers and in every war where Poles went to fight for someone else’s freedom because they understood, instinctively, that freedom is indivisible – that the freedom lost in Warsaw is eventually lost in Paris, and the freedom defended in Vienna is eventually defended everywhere.
The Winged Hussars rode down the hill at Vienna in 1683 not because Vienna was Poland – but because the civilization was one thing, and what threatened it threatened everything. Za wolność naszą i waszą. The motto is more durable than any alliance. It is the specific Polish understanding that you cannot defend your own freedom while remaining indifferent to someone else’s.
Tell the truth. Have courage. And build. We learned this the hard way. We are passing it forward. That is what civilizations do when they intend to survive.
Za wolność naszą i waszą used to be the motto of our fight.
It still is. 🇵🇱🗽