Talophex (@Talophex) header
Talophex (@Talophex) profile picture

Talophex

@Talophex

Surgeon General of prediction market Twitter. Too liberal for the Deep South, too conservative for the PNW.

 Seattle, WA
github.com/Talophex
Joined September 2011
  • Tweets4.8K
  • Following433
  • Followers1K
Republican Cindy Hyde Smith is currently winning my old state of Mississippi by only 7,000 votes, the Independent has 19,000 votes, ranked choice would have made the difference!
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The best casino game is craps because there’s nothing like that feeling of a whole table of stranger-friends winning together, and the best prediction market days are elections where all the rational thinkers get to profit from the same thesis, I’ve seen enough, congratulations!
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Why did I not start another bank transfer to PredictIt in time… the prices are completely schizophrenic, they’re selling Michigan senate D for 70c, it’s 80c on Poly
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How Susan Collins starts moving when a bad poll drops just before the election:
Politics Watch (@politics_watch1) profile picturePolitics Watch
@politics_watch1Nov 1
Maine Senate (YouGov) 🟦Troy Jackson 52% 🟥Susan Collins 47% 10/26-10/29 Link: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.ne…
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My understanding of Situational Awareness is that they bought tons of calls on all the companies that just had the floor fall out, is Leopold underwater again or am I missing something?
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Once again thankful for my personal rule against placing bets involving Benjamin Netanyahu, a healthy fear of the big Yahu has saved many portfolios
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Anyone have data on the number of one-issue Malfoid voters? This won’t swing the house back red will it?
U.S. Department of Education (@usedgov) profile pictureU.S. Department of Education
@usedgovOct 27
There’s Magic in Learning! 🪄
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This market has been fighting a heroic battle against theta that it’s about to lose. There are only ten weeks left in the year.
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We have a new SI unit for how long a political role lasts, 1 Zc (Zacharia) = 0.5 Sc (Scaramucci)
The New York Times (@nytimes) profile pictureThe New York Times
@nytimesOct 16
Breaking News: President Trump’s new press secretary, Katie Zacharia, was fired after less than a week on the job, according to people familiar with the matter.  nyti.ms/4yuECpZ
Katie Zacharia Is Ousted After 5 Days as White House Press Secretary

Katie Zacharia Is Ousted After 5 Days as White House Press Secretary

Her abrupt departure came after she was shadowed by questions about how she had presented her legal career and handled her first press briefing.

nytimes.com
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Talophex retweeted
Dr Pepper (@drpepper) profile picture
Dr Pepper
@drpepperOct 15
👋 CFB fans in Tuscaloosa, We saw what happened Saturday. The citizens of Fansville wanted to send a little something your way… Head to📍Rounders @ 1215 University Blvd, Tuscaloosa, AL 35401 tonight for some Dr Pepper on us (while supplies last)!
Image from Dr Pepper (@drpepper)
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Gondor (@gondorfi) profile pictureGondor
@gondorfiOct 14
Replying to @gondorfi
Gondor is the first margin account for Polymarket Get a credit line against your Polymarket portfolio and use it to enter more positions
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1/🧵 There aren’t many prediction markets where medical knowledge leads to a huge advantage but we had one recently in “Another pneumonic plague case by October 15/30?”. The fact that there were two dates was key here, because most factors except the timing can be rinsed out.
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So back to the price of October 30, it should have been a little higher than October 15, but really not much. That’s not what we saw, it was over double at some points. So to wrap it all up what was the play? Buy No on October 30 and “protect” the bet with a…
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…nearly equal amount of Yes on October 15. If a second case occurs you break even, if no one gets sicks you harvest the gap between them, which it appears so far is what we will see. Easy money.
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When you include the second and third order effects of a thinner population this is essentially guaranteed to be true
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Can I exchange my 2016 Hillary bonds for 2026 midterm bonds? The coupon rate is the exact same
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Talophex retweeted
mg scott (@mgscotttt) profile picture
mg scott
@mgscottttOct 8
we’re gonna see a glut of tech-themed media hit the market in the next ~2 yrs. most of it is going to be incredibly bad. hollywood writers hate this world & do not understand it. and therefore cannot write abt it well.
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Talophex retweeted
orph (@orph_) profile picture
orph
@orph_Oct 7
First they came for the software engineers and I said nothing for I was not a software engineer. Then they came for the mathematicians and I said nothing for I was not a mathematician. Then they came for the lawyers and I said "make sure you get all the lawyers"
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