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Joined April 2009
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@Support, we have a question about the access restrictions you enforce in Türkiye.
While Batuhan Mumcu was Deputy Minister of Culture and Tourism, news reports and social media posts about him and his wife, Neslihan Mumcu, were repeatedly blocked on grounds of “national security and public order.” He was later appointed to the board of Türkiye’s Information and Communication Technologies Authority (BTK).
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Is X aware of these developments? Will you continue to restrict access in Türkiye to the X accounts of journalists, human rights defenders, analysts and other citizens? Will you review the orders behind those restrictions and tell the public what you decide?
@Support, for reference, these are my other X accounts that have been withheld in Türkiye:
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🔴 NEW GLOBAL BRIEFING OUT
The leader's support broke: NVIDIA collapsed on high volume (−31%).
US indices sit on their main-trend support — a bear market can be confirmed any moment.
If the locomotive leaves the rails, the whole train slows.
I've raised my cautious stance a notch 👇
#NVIDIA #SP500 #stocks #bearmarket
farukanaliz.substack.com/p/f…
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TheSignal retweeted
@Support, we have a question about the access restrictions you enforce in Türkiye.
While Batuhan Mumcu was Deputy Minister of Culture and Tourism, news reports and social media posts about him and his wife, Neslihan Mumcu, were repeatedly blocked on grounds of “national security and public order.” He was later appointed to the board of Türkiye’s Information and Communication Technologies Authority (BTK).
As part of an investigation into investment funds, prosecutors have now requested measures affecting Neslihan Mumcu’s assets. There are also reports that Batuhan Mumcu has been removed from the BTK board, though this has yet to be officially confirmed.
Is X aware of these developments? Will you continue to restrict access in Türkiye to the X accounts of journalists, human rights defenders, analysts and other citizens? Will you review the orders behind those restrictions and tell the public what you decide?
@Support, for reference, these are my other X accounts that have been withheld in Türkiye:
@TheSignalPulse (formerly @farukbkc44)
@farukanaliz
@FarukAnalysisTR
Will you review the orders behind these restrictions and tell me whether access to these accounts will be restored in Türkiye?
| NVIDIA Special | $NVDA
The Leader Cracked — NVIDIA Broke Its Main Support and Every Moving Average on Record Volume. What It Means, and the Levels I'm Watching
For two years, one stock carried the entire AI trade — and, through it, the US indices. This week that stock told us something important. NVIDIA didn't just pull back; it broke its main support and sliced through every one of its moving averages in a single move, on record volume. When the leader does that, it isn't a stock story anymore — it's a market story.
Let me read the chart the way I read any leader at a turning point: not by the price alone, but by where it broke, how it broke, and who was selling when it did.
1. The Break: Through Everything at Once
On the daily chart, NVIDIA fell from the ~243 peak to 166 — a 31% drawdown, with an intraday flush to 148.80 (−39% from the top). What matters is not the number but the manner: the price cut through the entire moving-average ribbon — the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day, all clustered between roughly 200 and 216 — in effectively one move. There was no pause at the 50-day, no bounce at the 100-day. The market skipped every step and went straight to the main support.
My Read: When a price respects its moving averages on the way up, each one is a floor. When it slices through all of them at once, those floors become ceilings — and the stock now has four layers of overhead resistance where it used to have support. Technically, this is a regime change, not a dip.
2. The Volume: Distribution, Not Noise
Here is the detail most people miss. This break came on record volume — the largest daily bar on the chart, and on the weekly, a multi-year-high ~1.98B-share week. High volume on a breakdown has a name: distribution. It is where large holders hand their shares to the market, not where dip-buyers quietly accumulate.
My Read: Price tells you what; volume tells you who. A support break on thin volume can be a shakeout. A support break on the heaviest volume in years is the big money leaving. That distinction is the whole analysis. This was the second kind.
3. The Support: 165-166 Is the Line in the Sand
The price stopped — for now — right at 165-166. That level is not random: it is the 2025 breakout base, the shelf the entire 2026 rally was built on. NVIDIA closed the week sitting exactly on it, after wicking below to 148.80 intraday. On the weekly chart, this coincided with a break of the 100-week moving average (~175) — the last medium-term floor.
So we are at a genuine decision point:
Hold 165-166 and reclaim 180 → the breakdown was a flush, and a relief bounce toward the broken MA cluster (~200) is on the table.
Lose 165-166 on a weekly close → the next supports are 143, and then the major 93.81 base. The 200-week average sits far below, near 123.
My Read: I don't guess at a decision point — I define it and wait. 165-166 is the line in the sand. Above it, this is a violent correction inside a bull. A weekly close below it, and I treat the two-year uptrend as broken until proven otherwise. Right now the stock is balanced on that line, having already been rejected from below it intraday — a warning, not yet a verdict.
4. Why This Is Bigger Than One Stock
NVIDIA is not just a stock; it is the index's center of gravity. When the single name that carried the market breaks its main support on distribution volume, it pulls the ground out from under the whole AI theme — and the US indices leaning on it are now sitting on their main-trend supports too (I cover that in the weekly global briefing). The leader cracking is usually the first chapter, not the last.
My Read: Leaders top first. In every cycle, the strongest name rolls over while the index still looks fine — and then the index follows. That's why I'm not treating this as "NVIDIA news." I'm treating it as the market's leading indicator flashing. If the locomotive has left the rails, the whole train slows.
Closing: The Levels I'm Watching
Line in the sand: 165-166 (weekly close). Above = correction; below = trend break.
Recovery trigger: reclaiming 180, then the 200-day cluster near 200.
Downside map: 143 → 93.81 (major base); 200-week ~123.
The tell: volume. A low-volume bounce off 165 is a trap; a high-volume reclaim of 180 is real.
I'm not catching this falling knife. A −31% leader that broke every average on record volume has earned caution, not courage. I'd rather miss the first bounce and buy a confirmed reclaim than guess at a bottom while the biggest sellers in two years are still at the door. At these levels, patience is the edge.
This is a technical read, not investment advice; it is personal analysis and commentary.
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ABD'nin başkenti Washington DC'de Beyaz Saray'a yürüme mesafesinde bulunan bir noktada 4 kişi vuruldu. Olay yerine çok sayıda güvenlik gücü sevk edildi
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