Those looking for a hawkish tone from Warsh got their wish (link to speech below). While his overall messaging is very similar to the majority as disclosed in the July minutes: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do,” he overall tilts more in the direction of the hawks. Warsh deviates from the position of the doves/centrists who believe that current rates are "mildly (or modestly) restrictive" instead saying “on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.” In addition he says he takes little comfort from the recent inflation readings. While "better than expected,” Warsh said “they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” In that regard he specifically points out that "Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic. Looking over just the past six months, the conclusion is similar: Of goods and services in the PCE basket, 49 percent showed annualized price increases above 3 percent." And on inflation expectations he says "The thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't... There is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs." He also downplays any concerns about the labor market and economy saying "For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened.... Labor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years. Unemployment claims, on a four-week average—an empirically robust real-time indicator—are near their lowest level in decades." In explaining why the Fed didn't hike in July he says "A good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course was to await new information in the intermeeting period—especially given possible developments in supply chains, investment flows, and geopolitics—before deciding whether a change in interest rate policy was advisable. And we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require." federalreserve.gov/newsevent…