Tim O’Brien

monero:native just failed the exact level everyone was watching—and that matters. $600 was the breakout trigger. Monero couldn’t hold it and slipped back toward the mid-$560s, turning bullish momentum into a real stress test. The privacy trade is still alive, but bulls need to reclaim $600–$625 with volume. Lose $557 cleanly, and the next meaningful support sits closer to $535–$540. Market levels I’m not chasing here. Reclaim $600, I’m interested. Lose $557, I wait. Breakout loading—or bull trap? #XMR #Monero #CryptoTrading

$AMD hit its 200-day moving average. Buyers didn’t hesitate. The stock has bounced roughly 17% from that test, even after last week’s brutal chip selloff. That’s the reaction I wanted to see. Now I’m watching whether AMD can hold the move once the first rush of buying fades. Does this look like a durable rebound to you? #AMD #Semiconductors #AIStocks

$NVDA bounced on Friday. I’m watching $175. After a rough week for AI stocks, Nvidia closed at $186.64. The chart puts its 100-week moving average around $175, and that’s the test I care about. If buyers show up there, I’d take the rebound more seriously. If they don’t, Friday’s green day won’tmean much. Earnings are coming Nov. 17. Would you buy a test of $175, or wait for the numbers? #NVDA #AIStocks #Semiconductors

Five trading days. Five green closes. +$10,305.19. Here’s the part I’m most proud of: my trade win rate was only 47%. That’s proof you don’t need to be right all the time. Cut the bad trades, press the clean setups, and judge the day by execution—not ego. Really grateful to @Graham_Walker_ for the guidance and accountability. Strong start to November. Now the goal is simple: stay disciplined and protect the momentum. 📈

Wall Street’s AI selloff just triggered a circuit breaker in South Korea. The KOSPI plunged 8.5% within minutes of the open, forcing a 20-minute trading halt. Samsung and SK Hynix were hit hard as investors rushed out of the memory and AI trade. This is bigger than a bad day in Asia. It’s a global unwind of crowded AI positioning. My view: fundamentals didn’t change overnight. Liquidity did—and that usually creates more volatility before a real bottom forms.

This is the kind of volume that can mark a bottom—or start the next leg lower. Nasdaq traded around 2x average volume as investors dumped tech. It looks like capitulation, but $QQQ still has one job: reclaim and hold $675. Above $675, the squeeze could get fast. Buying now or waiting for confirmation? 👇

The AI trade just moved from the earnings call to the bond desk… and the bond desk is getting nervous. Investment-grade tech debt now trades nearly 20 bps wider than the broader corporate bond market—the biggest premium since the data began in 2003. This isn’t default panic. Not yet. It’s the market charging $GOOGL , $MSFT , $META , $AMZN and $ORCL more as the AI buildout shifts from cash flow toward debt. My view: AI capex now needs to produce real returns before financing costs start compounding. I’m watching credit spreads before the stock charts. If spreads keep widening while tech rallies, that divergence matters.

The market went from “AI spending is killing Big Tech” to buying every mega-cap in sight. $AAPL +5.6% $AMZN +7.4% $MSFT +5.9% $GOOGL$GOOGL $GOOGL$GOOGL $GOOGL +3.7% That’s a crazy reversal. My take: the first big green day can be relief and short covering. The next session tells us whether the trend actually changed. If $QQQ holds around $690 and these names keep the breakout, I get more bullish. If the gains disappear quickly? Just another squeeze. Enjoy the green. Don’t confuse speed with confirmation.

ethereum:0xe0f63a424a4439cbe457d80e4f4b51ad25b2c56c just broke the trend dip buyers have defended for months. Are we cooked? Not yet. My line is 7,615. Reclaim it fast and this could be a bear trap. Stay below it, and 7,500 comes into play—then the 200-day near 7,325. I’m not panic-selling here. But I’m definitely not buying every red candle either. Let price prove it.

Asia just sent Wall Street a $550B warning. More than $550B was reportedly erased across six major indexes, with South Korea’s KOSPI dropping around 4% as Samsung and SK Hynix sold off. This isn’t just an Asia problem. The same fear is spreading globally: investors are questioning whether massive AI spending will generate enough returns. I’m watching $NVDA, $AMD, $MU and $QQQ closely. If Asian semis can’t stabilize, any U.S. tech rebound may struggle to hold. Not panic. But definitely not a market to get careless in.

Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500 clobbered as October closes with brutal sell-off US stocks plunged in the final trading day of the month as earnings from Amazon ($AMZN ) and solana:4ZRp2QrXjZ58XinbUzTjyhuFh8gAaHYeag4LnRUmpump ($GOOG , $GOOGL ) this week rekindled concerns about the amount of money Big Tech is spending on its AI ambitions. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tumbled 2.8% as a tech-fueled sell-off intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 1.2%, or over 650 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 2%. For the month, the Dow gained 1.5%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gave up gains, falling 5.2% and 1.2%, respectively. October marked the worst month for the Nasdaq since March 2025.

Intel didn’t have a bad day. It had a 1974 kind of day. $INTC fell 28.6% on roughly 455M shares, slicing through support like it wasn’t even there. And this wasn’t just a small earnings miss. Intel says PC weakness could last through the first half of 2027, while AI-driven memory shortages are making computers more expensive. That’s the weird part—AI is helping Intel’s server business while quietly choking its core PC market. One stock blowing up doesn’t mean the whole market is breaking. But if $SOXX and $QQQ can’t catch a real bounce after this… yeah, this could be the start of something bigger.

$GOOGL just erased roughly $480B in market value—the second-largest one-day wipeout ever for a U.S. company. Google didn’t lose $480B in cash. The market repriced it after $51B of quarterly capex and another quarter of negative FCF. AI growth is real. So is the bill.

$QQQ has spent six months turning conviction into chop. That doesn’t mean a breakout is “overdue.” The trade gets cleaner after a daily close outside the box. Above it: the uptrend resumes. Below it: the 2026 anchored VWAP becomes the next test.

AI demand is so tight that even old GPUs are getting more expensive to rent. Since January: H200 +160% B200 +120% RTX Pro 6000 +65% H100 +35% Even the six-year-old A100 is up about 7%. This isn’t just a chip shortage. It’s a shortage of usable, powered compute.

AI’s next bottleneck may not be chips. It may be credit. JPMorgan estimates $279B of AI-related issuance in 2026, with another $220B–$300B possible next year. Bond buyers are already getting pickier. The buildout only works if lenders keep believing the cash flows will arrive.

Google didn’t report a brutal quarter. It reported a brutally expensive one. Revenue +25%. Search +12%. Cloud +103%. But Q3 capex hit $51.4B, FCF fell to -$9.1B and long-term debt reached $125.1B. One correction: there was no $300B+ capex guide for 2027.

That last bar is hard to miss. This $GOOGL chart shows years of cash generation followed by a sharp turn below zero. Investors might tolerate a few ugly quarters to fund AI. How long they’ll wait for that spending to pay off is another matter.

Another sea of red in Chinese stocks. The Macro Paper puts the four-month market-cap loss near $3 trillion. A huge number, though the post doesn’t specify which markets it includes. “Cheap” gets a lot harder to buy when every bounce keeps getting sold.

Azure grew 48% and $MSFT still gave back the entire earnings rally. Tough crowd. It was up over 4% premarket, then turned red Thursday. What exactly were buyers hoping to see? Anyone picking some up here, or waiting for the selling to settle?