I spend a lot of time telling people to buy index funds. I also pick individual stocks. Those two things aren’t contradictory. My ETFs are the foundation of my portfolio. But if I’m going to take the additional risk of owning an individual company, I have one expectation: It needs to outperform the S&P 500. Otherwise, why am I doing the extra work? I’ve had some good ones: $PLTR at $10, +1,582% $META at $95, 615% $LRCX at $61, +345% $SHOP at $29, +336% $CRWD at $64, +283% $PANW at $149, +152% $NBIS at $88, +150% $ASML at $690, +136% I’ve had misses too. And I’ll have more. That’s stock picking. But there are 5 companies I own today that I believe can outperform the S&P 500 between now and 2030. Here’s my thesis on each, and what could make me wrong. 🧵

One of the more expensive habits investors develop is needing to have an opinion on everything. Every earnings report. Every Fed meeting. Every stock that drops 20%. I've made more money since accepting that I can look at an investment opportunity and simply say: “I have absolutely no idea.”

The urge is even higher today to take profits on $NOW (currently at +68%) and rotating it all in to $AAOI. Risk-reward is looking even better.

We are no where near bubble valuations for the S&P 500 in the tech sector based on a forward P/E. These companies are genuinely making money, unlike the dot com bubble. The question is can this growth continue?

I think people are going to underestimate what Apple just announced with HomeView. And it has very little to do with the $299 price tag. Think about what $AAPL is actually building. Your iPhone knows your schedule. Your Apple Watch knows your activity. Your Mac knows your workflow. And now HomeView wants to bring all of that intelligence into your home. It recognizes who's standing in front of it. It can access personal context, help manage your day, and control connected devices throughout your house. Here's where I get bullish. Apple doesn't necessarily need to win the race to build the smartest AI model. It needs to make AI incredibly useful inside an ecosystem hundreds of millions of people already rely on. And once your lights, cameras, thermostat, calendar, messages, and personal assistant all work together? Switching ecosystems becomes a much bigger decision. Apple isn't just selling another screen. It's trying to make leaving the Apple ecosystem even harder. I'm very interested to see how consumers respond to this one. $AAPL

$META is single handedly holding my portfolio up today

When I was 23, a college basketball coach took a chance on me. I had absolutely no experience coaching basketball. None. I just loved the game. He saw that passion and brought me under his wing as an assistant coach at a junior college. I spent one year there. And nearly 20 years later, I'm still using what he taught me. Attention to detail. Repetition. Preparation. I thought I was detail oriented before meeting him. Turns out I had a LOT to learn. When I started training to become a dentist, I was slow. I made mistakes. I second guessed myself. Things that seemed effortless for experienced dentists took me forever. But I kept practicing. Over and over and over again. Now, almost 10 years into my career, parents routinely tell me they're shocked by how quickly I can work. I always tell them the same thing. It took years of training to become this efficient. And being quick means absolutely nothing if the work isn't done correctly. I've been thinking about that coach lately. He probably had no idea that the lessons he was teaching a 23 year old kid about basketball would eventually influence how that kid practiced dentistry. But they did. And that's something I wish we talked about more when discussing investments. Sometimes the greatest return on an investment has absolutely nothing to do with money. Sometimes it's the time you spend believing in someone before they've given you a reason to. You may never see the return. But I promise you, they will.

Me leaving work after a 6 year old humbled me but we still got the tooth out.

At 27 I quit a $55K job at Under Armour for dental school. Everyone saw the $550K in loans. Nobody counted the other $220K: 4 years of paychecks I gave up. Real price of the decision: ~$770K. Today I own a pediatric practice with 40 employees. Debt that buys earning power is an investment. Debt that buys lifestyle is a cavity.

The urge to rotate from $NOW to $AAOI is very much real.

A $150 filling ignored for 18 months can turn into a $3,000 sedation case. Small problem + time = expensive problem. Your portfolio runs on the same math, in the other direction: Small deposits + time = serious money. Compound interest works for you or against you. You pick which side.

Whatnot makes sticking to a budget feel like losing. I’ve wanted a 1998–99 Vince Carter E-X Century rookie since I was a kid. Favorite player (other than Michael Jordan) growing up. Beautiful card. I’ve come across it twice now on Whatnot. Both times, I wouldn’t go above my price target, but I wanted to swipe. That’s a childhood want sitting on my screen. Someone else is about to get it. One swipe keeps me in. Whatnot turns spending into entertainment, and FOMO is part of the show. I’ve bought cards there. I enjoy it. I also know exactly what it’s tempting me to do. I’ve waited since childhood for this card. I can wait longer for my price.

One of the dumbest mistakes I've made investing? Convincing myself a stock was undervalued because it was trading 70% below its all time high. Turns out a stock being down 70% doesn't mean it's on sale. Sometimes it just means you found a really efficient way to lose another 50%.

Cult stocks have made me a ridiculous amount of money over the years. $TSLA. $PLTR. $SOFI. People love making fun of investors who get emotionally attached to a ticker. Sometimes they're right. Sometimes those lunatics retire before you do.

I don’t decide each week whether to invest. I made that choice years ago. Now, automatic weekly purchases of my favorite ETFs let time do the heavy lifting. My portfolio has grown, my financial stress has eased, and I spend far less time watching my brokerage account. The best part wasn’t just the returns. It was getting my attention back. $VOO $VGT $SMH $VB

One of the dumbest things I’ve ever done in the stock market was finding a way to lose money on a stock I was right about. I bought $PLTR between$6 and $10. Loved the company. Loved the long term opportunity. Then I decided to get cute and sell covered calls with a $45 strike. Seemed like a great idea at the time. Until the stock kept climbing. Suddenly I was spending money managing a position that I would’ve been perfectly happy just owning. I was right about the company. I just couldn’t leave the damn investment alone. Anyone else ever managed to turn a winning investment into an expensive lesson?

Not much is better than a mid afternoon cup of nitro cold brew. Put a splash of Malk’s pumpkin spice almond milk and that’s the chefs kiss.

Do you think we’ll get investment deals like we did in 2022 again?

My business partner is out here turning deer hunting into six figure real estate deals. Seriously. He buys hunting farms in Ohio, hires crews to develop food plots, install feeders and cameras, and hunting stands, then flips them 4–20 months later. Six figure profits on every flip so far. Then he casually tells me a Fortune 500 company made an offer on one of his properties for a potential DATA CENTER. He bought the land for DEER HUNTING. Never once considered a commercial buyer. Meanwhile, I’m sitting here realizing there are entire ways of making money I didn’t even know existed. The world of business is absolutely fascinating.

When $SOFI is a generational buy for the fifth time this year

Imagine going back to 2016 and telling yourself to buy $NVDA, $TSLA, and $BTC. Now imagine someone from 2036 showing up today with the same advice. What company would they tell you to buy? You only get to name ONE. What are you buying? 🫵