A winner is just a loser who tried one more time.
Joined July 2021
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I've seen a lot of stats pointing towards lower prices in the coming days/weeks, so that's what I'll be looking for this week. I also don't really see the point of focusing on individual names when $SOXL has a 13% ADR. Definitely the best way to play an oversold bounce imo.
A lot of AI names fading the gap up. Doesn't feel like the bottom is in to me. Likely just an oversold bounce. $SOXX.
«A strategy is only as strong as your ability to execute it without interference. If your emotions run your decisions, your results will always belong to them.” -JL
Doesn't look like we're getting the gap down I was hoping for. Maybe the jobs report will change that, but right now it's looking like a big gap up. Likely nothing to do today then.
Wow very interesting if true
SOXL's 13week return crossed below -67% today.
This is an exceptionally rare event, occurring only five times in the available history. While the sample size is small, the forward return profile has been remarkably consistent. Every prior occurrence produced a positive return from week 1 through week 10. Whether this instance follows the same path remains to be seen.
Historically, average returns accelerated from 28.6% after one week to 54.0% after three weeks, 81.0% after four weeks, and 117.5% after ten weeks. The median outcome was similarly impressive.
These signals have historically occurred during periods of extreme pessimism, forced liquidations, and trend exhaustion.
Got the ugly close! Perfect for tomorrow. Fear spreading overnight and a big gap down is the ideal scenario now.
Closed everything for tiny loss. Looks like we're rolling over. Not holding anything in the red overnight.
I've scaled into some positions, but I'm actually not sure if I want the bounce here. If we roll over and close weak we could get an even better opportunity on a gap down tomorrow. Lets see what the last hour brings.
I might try some longs again today. The idea is an oversold bounce in the AI names. $SOXL main watch and probably best way to play it. Let's see how we open first though.
Covered a bit more of my $SOXL short today. A lot of the semis are approaching oversold levels now. Rather add back to my short on a new bounce into declining MAs. Think it's smart to lock in profits while you have them in this market and not trail too much.
Leaning towards a dead cat bounce for now. 2-3 more up days and I'll probably be looking for new shorts. $QQQ 21ema is main level I'm watching.
Feels like we're loosing $SPY as well now. Below the 100ma. A trip to the 200ma seems likely.
$LITE CEO talking about being "sold out" on Bloomberg marked the ultimate top lol. Funny how that works...
