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A community for all traders and investors. Technical, Macro, Micro Eyes Up Trading - Trade What’s in Front of You https://nitter.cf/t.co/0Grb2spQly
Joined April 2012
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Nothing broke — but everything got more expensive.
Fed tighter. BOJ tighter. Yen weaker. 10s at 5%. France/Bund stress widening. Oil near $100. Carry still alive. AI financing getting heavier.
The surface stayed calm. Underneath, the pressure kept building.
This week’s Cautious Investor:
traderscommunity.com/cautiou… #Macro #CarryTrade #Bonds #Oil #Markets
🤖 Made with AI
Traders Community retweeted
India and global oil markets shouldn’t be punished as the US seeks to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine, Jamie Dimon said in an interview #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Traders Community retweeted
India's Russian oil imports fell in August, seen lower in September, data shows #oott reuters.com/world/china/indi…
Ahead all day -3-day Skift Global Forum
"Travel’s Great Recalibration" will focus on how travel companies should respond to AI-driven booking, geopolitical volatility, changing traveler behavior, tighter capital, and reshaped loyalty landscape.
Due to Present:
Booking Holdings $BKNG CEO Glenn Fogel,
Expedia Group $EXE CEO Ariane Gorin,
Airbnb $ABNB CEO Brian Chesky,
Uber Technologies $UBER CEO Dara Khosrowshahi
Weather Update for #Wheat:
US: Rain is reaching the U.S. Plains winter-wheat belt, improving establishment moisture;
Argentina is forecast meaningful rain September 25–October 1 after the earlier drought/frost damage. Russian winter planting, however, remains unusually slow because of excessive moisture, and SovEcon still expects the smallest Russian wheat area in 12 years. $WEAT
Traders Community retweeted
After holding strong at 0.56 BCF/d for a second straight day yesterday, early-cycle volumes to the new Golden Pass LNG export facility will rise to 0.609 BCF/d today, which would be a new record high if it holds up in tonight’s late-cycle data. #Natgas
Chicago #wheat fell sharply overnight September 22 as traders reacted to the alternative-port plan from Russia. It does not solve Russia’s problem quickly—Baltic/Arctic capacity, rail economics and distance remain constraints—but it reduces the probability that the Black Sea disruption translates one-for-one into permanently stranded Russian wheat. $WEAT
Reuters reports September 21–22 that Russian exporters have begun converting fertilizer and coal terminals at Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg and Murmansk to handle grain, with rail shipments already being redirected north.
Before the recent attacks, roughly 90% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports moved through the Black Sea, so this is a genuine attempt to restore lost export capacity rather than just contingency planning.
Russia/products remains the opposite side of the #oil equation. Global #diesel is now at record prices:
Middle Eastern diesel exports averaged only 800 kb/d from March-August, roughly half year-earlier levels, Russia remains under its diesel-export ban after refinery strikes,
European ARA stocks are at their lowest seasonal level.
U.S. diesel inventories are almost 15% below their five-year seasonal average despite refiners running very hard. #OOTT
Today's Trump–Zelenskiy meeting therefore matters. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is explicitly offering reciprocal restraint on energy infrastructure if Russia stops attacking Ukrainian energy and export facilities.
Until Moscow agrees, however, Kyiv does not intend to unilaterally stop attacking Russian refineries.
OpenAI President Greg Brockman, who is also a substantial donor to the political action committee MAGA Inc., plans to attend the state dinner with U.S. President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping on Thursday, according to Politico.
Makes Thursday potentially more relevant for NVDA/AMD/AI infrastructure/export-control names than a normal ceremonial state dinner.
I’d especially listen for anything on advanced-chip restrictions, Chinese access to AI compute, rare-earth concessions, or a bilateral AI-risk framework. Those are the bits that could actually move the tape.
Reminds me of a couple of traders that we hired that would keep breaking the rules, lose a ton and keep begging for another shot - same pattern - we used to name them Colin's. Here we are the man himself still being a Colin .....
Traders Community retweeted
Spring #wheat #harvested in the United States is at 96%, as of Sept. 20, up from 93% last week.
From the @usda_nass: tinyurl.com/4fjwc9pt
Traders Community retweeted
another excellent post on the absurdity of the equity markets and their narratives ✅😎🥳🤪🤡😳
Monday's rally had a tidy narrative attached to it
$META launched a new chatbot that hit no. 1 in the app store, ahead of ChatGPT
So what did the market do?
It went and bought anyone who might be able to sell a semiconductors to an AI chatbot. $ARM +17%, $INTC +12%, $AMD +10% through $1 trillion (Leopold will be happy!)
No deal was signed. No hypserscaler placed a chip order. $NVDA said nothing. Neither did $AMD despite jointing the trillion dollar club
It was a narrative trade built on 730,000 app downloads
Narrative trade are perfectly tradeable. The problems start when you forget why you bought and start defending it like there's fundamentals underneath
A story can get repriced in an afternoon, by the same hot money that bought it up yesterday.
Only 8% of consumers say they'd trust $META with their passwords... so the jury is out on how quickly/successfully they'll be able to commercialise their new chatbot
I cover Monday's rally and more in today's desk note 👇🏻
taooftrading.substack.com/p/…
Kalshi seeks CFTC OK for leveraged event contracts to lure institutions, as trading volume soars to $178B.
Philly Fed nonmanufacturing survey -22.0 v -10.6 prior BUT we read much less dovish than the -22 headline looks. It is not a business sector behaving as though demand has collapsed.
The sharp move in employment, workweek and capex is meaningful even if the headline regional assessment is ugly.
What jumps out to us is the cluster:
FT employment 19.0 from 2.1
PT employment 10.7 from 1.1
Workweek 8.5 from -13.4
Equipment/software capex 33.0 from 8.8
Wages 40.7
Prices paid 37.8 / received 20.0
New orders at -2.2 are weak, certainly, but they actually improved substantially from -10.1, while revenues remained positive.
The six-month firm outlook rising to 20.3 reinforces the point: respondents dislike the regional environment, but they aren't simultaneously slashing labor, hours or investment.
Heads up Oil P&Ds:
October CL expires today.
The expiring October contract around $93.28,
November contract $89.92.
That's a perfect example of why we want to be careful with the rollover gap on the continuous chart this week.
#OOTT
Tuesday carry framework watch:
AUD lagging while NZD leads is worth watching against #AUDJPY rather than #USDJPY.
If oil/yields keep falling and AUDJPY begins giving back Monday's risk-on move, that would tell us the broader carry complex isn't buying the equity celebration nearly as enthusiastically as the Nasdaq is.