Observing the evolution of human systems, geopolitics & markets through the Second Law | Knowledge networks • Kardashev Type II
Joined June 2022
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If this will turn out to be true, the US will go the way of Europe with disastrous consequences for the AI tech industry. There is a palpable anxiety in the markets.
Polymarket and Kalshi are not good political predictive markets, so I don't have a lot of confidence in these numbers.
Regardless of the outcome, I think politics should be banned from the betting markets.
Chamath had probably the most interesting diagram in this week's All-In episode.
The big AI players are beginning to compete against the US Treasury for public funds. This is an unprecedented structural change with implications that are difficult to predict.
The most compelling argument for SpaceX and Tesla merger is that they share the same core focus: SI and energy.
Cars, robots, satellites, are products that sell to fund the advance of SI and product of energy at scale.
The ultimate goal: Kardashev Type 2 + Mars.
Worth keeping in mind that since 2000 SOX has vastly outperformed S&P.
This is before the physical SI incoming wave, and before the deployment of SI starclouds.
Music has already reached Singularity: all songs sound the same in all major cities around the world.
The majority top 25 singers are female, but both male and female use largely a similar style: cynical, laconic, dark, cold. It's utterly depressing.
I challenge anyone to listen 30s of each of the top 25 for the any city. Turn on the lyrics and read them.
Then, just for the sake of the argument, listen to the top 10 1984 and compare. The difference is shocking.
If the cultural trends encapsulate the spirit of the time, 2026 is in a dark, Black Mirror mood.
What was once a source of pride for the Western Europe, the massive socialist welfare system has gradually become its biggest source of worry and risk. High tax rate, good pensions, great healthcare, union representation, all good, except that in the long run the states run out of money. Even if they were perfectly functional, governments couldn't solve the inexorable demographic problem without lowering taxes to stimulate enterprise and boost productivity to compensate for the shrinking workforce. Too politically risky. Maybe this is how the idea of increasing migration started to gain traction originally.
It may well be that the Western Europe has hit the threshold where it is impossible to convince the public that is time to be less dependent on government welfare and be more self-reliant, like they were decades ago, more like US-style. Entrenched welfare is like a drug. Any attempt to cut taxes and reduce benefits temporarily will be met with anger.
The popular discontent can be condensed in one phrase: "the cost of living is rising". With that any conversation about cutting taxes with immediate impact on welfare is closed. Very hard to negotiate before polls.
This is an unprecedented challenge that can trigger a dangerous confrontational spiral with unpredictable consequences.
France is there.
Why did Grok title my chat in French?
I see noticeable decrease in reasoning effort after the impressive initial release of the version 4.7. Is this a computing resource problem?
Lending capacity to Anthropic and Google, massive adoption of Grok Bot must put pressure on resources.
It all goes to agents that are training like made now learning from real life transactions.
Grok users are the peasants now.
The super intelligence race is on. Record breaking math challenges solved. Agents running businesses like pros.
Apple:
