Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon.
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Tesla will release its actual Q3 2026 production and delivery numbers in a couple of hours. The estimates:
• My estimate: 463,000
• Analyst consensus: 461,974 (based on Tesla's survey of 24 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 29)
My estimate for Tesla’s Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS is $0.55, the same as the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers within two hours.
Hi everyone. Here are my Tesla delivery estimates for Q2 2026. The gap between my estimate and the analyst consensus is unusually large this time.
• My estimate: 466,000
• Analyst consensus: 406,024 (based on Tesla's survey of 22 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on June 26)
The actual numbers are in. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026. My estimate was 2.9% too low, while the analyst consensus was 15.4% too low.
• Actual: 480,126
• My estimate: 466,000 (Error: -14,126 units or -2.9%)
• Analyst consensus: 406,024 (Error: -74,102 units or -15.4%)
For deliveries, I was aiming for an error of less than 3%, so I'm happy with the result. My production estimate was even closer, with an error of just -0.5%. Production is easier for me to estimate thanks to VIN data.
Here are my estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings:
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.39
• Analyst Consensus: $0.33
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers in a few hours.
The $0.33 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 20 analysts, also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, released on Tesla’s website on April 17: ir.tesla.com/press-release/e…
Hi everyone. Here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 2026:
• My estimate: 375,000
• Analyst consensus: 365,645 (based on Tesla’s survey of 23 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Mar 26)
Last year, Q1 deliveries were 336,681 units, unusually low because of the Model Y Juniper transition. It’s a low bar to clear, though it’s still unclear whether full-year deliveries will exceed 2025.
Unfortunately, Tesla missed expectations this time. Actual deliveries were below both my estimate and the analyst consensus.
The 50,363-unit gap between production and deliveries was unusually large, suggesting weaker demand in the US.
Estimates vs Actual:
390,000 - @TSLAFanMtl
382,000 - @FutureAZA
377,251 - @ICannot_Enough
377,000 - @garyblack00
375,000 - @TroyTeslike
375,000 - @CuriousPejjy
372,000- @grok
365,645 - Analyst consensus
358,023 - Actual Deliveries
Tesla’s Europe sales are trending stronger than usual. Q1 2026 deliveries in Europe (not global deliveries) are expected to surpass any quarter in 2025. The increase in demand may be linked to the ongoing oil crisis. For more details, subscribers can view the draft here: patreon.com/posts/154399594
Based on the latest data, Tesla deliveries this quarter are expected to come in between 360,000 and 390,000 units. I’ll tweet my final estimate on the last day of the quarter, as usual.
Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings.
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.39
• Analyst Consensus: $0.44
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual results tomorrow, January 28, after market close.
The $0.44 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 19 analysts, also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, which was released on Tesla’s website on January 22: ir.tesla.com/press-release/e…
The actual numbers are in. Tesla beat the estimates.
Non-GAAP EPS:
• Actual: $0.50
• Analyst Consensus: $0.44
• My Estimate: $0.39
The last three columns show the actual results, my estimates, and the analyst consensus.
Interestingly, higher than usual stock-based compensation had a positive impact on Non-GAAP EPS.
After a 1.1% drop in 2024, Tesla deliveries fell 8.6% in 2025. I expect an even bigger drop in 2026.
The big question is whether Tesla can achieve driverless FSD with vision only, scale it beyond a few supervised or remote-controlled cars, and start making money before automotive sales fall below 300K per quarter.
Tesla hype is strong, but they haven’t actually achieved much yet, and reporting losses quarter after quarter would be a real hype killer after years of profitability.
Hi everyone. Here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q4 2025. For reference, deliveries were 495,570 units last year in Q4 2024.
• My estimate: 414,000
• Analyst consensus: 422,850 (based on Tesla’s survey of 20 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Dec 29)
Tesla is expected to release its Q4 2025 production and delivery numbers in less than half an hour, around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
In recent years, Tesla has consistently published these numbers on the second day of the month. When markets are open, as they are today, the release happens around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
Once the Q4 section is added, you can view the official numbers by clicking the “Press Release” link here: ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disc…
Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings:
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.66
• Analyst Consensus: $0.59
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers tomorrow, October 22, after market close.
The $0.59 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 23 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, released on October 18.
The actual numbers are in. They came in lower than expected.
Non-GAAP EPS:
• Actual: $0.50
• Analyst Consensus: $0.59
• My Estimate: $0.66
The last three columns show the actual results, my estimates, and the analyst consensus.
Operating expenses came in high. They reduced EPS by $0.13 compared to my estimate and $0.14 compared to the consensus.
Operating Expenses:
• Research and Development
• Selling, General & Administrative
• Restructuring & Other
