Troy Torrence

Nobody is sharper than the bookies: SeahawksML(2u)✅ Seahawks-2.5(1u)✅ Seahawks+Vikes(1u)✅ Chiefs TT un20.5(1u)✅ RR:Seahawks+Lions+Rams(2.3u)✅ NFL Wk 7=+16.1u NFL YTD=+52.3u When you make a bet, you should ask yourself; What do the bookies want me to do in this spot?

Going live at 7:10 est to break this game down… If you want to talk football, betting markets, and win $? This stream is for you. I’ll see you in chat.. Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks PreGame Show | NFL Football Week 8 | P... youtube.com/live/NfEazqVAtoo… via @YouTube

SEAHAWKS vs. BEARS (Monday Night Football) Variables in todays matchup that cannot be ignored.... We know Dennis Allen & the Bears defense play Man Coverage & Blitz at a top 10 rate. Sam Darnold has seen 2 teams that blitzed > 30% of dropbacks (DEN & WSH) Darnolds numbers in these 2 games? 74 passer rating 60% completion 6.8 YPA 3TD:4INT (5% TWP rate) Sam Darnold numbers vs. Man Coverage has also fallen off a cliff --> From +0.20 to -0.50 EPA/Play from 2025 to 2026. As it relates for the Bears; The ceiling is as high as any teams, especially on offense. However, have we ever seen the Ben Johnson & Caleb Williams tandem go on the road and post above average numbers? Unequivocally, the answer is no... Ben Johnson is a master of the short/screen passing game, and Caleb Williams is fully capable of executing his vision. But there's no defense in the NFL that can force opposing QB'S to throw it underneath, and rally to make the tackle. (SEA = Top 5 tackling unit)

SEAHAWKS vs. BEARS (Monday Night Football) Picking a side in this one is proving to be extremely difficult: Do we ride with the bookies who are clearly positioning themselves on the Seahawks? Or Do we put our faith in the X’s and O’s and ride with the Bears?

The Commanders are going to put us well into the black in Week 8…

LIONS ML (3u)✅✅✅ LIONS -3 (2u)✅✅ LIONS ML PARLAY (5u)✅✅✅✅✅ It wasn't a perfect day, but no suprise the max bet was able to cash us out despite all the noise in the game.

In week 5 of the NFL season, I had taken the biggest position of my career in backing the Patriots over the Raiders. Fast forward to week 8, and another opportunity of similar stature has presented itself. Positioning myself according to my edge & living with the consequences.

In the NFL, I've talked extensively about keeping up with the evolution of the game. Fading coordinators who are stubborn in their ways, and buying coordinators who are willing to evolve. Look at the YOY splits between offenses series success and how it correlates with throwing the deep ball. Last year their was a strong correlation between throwing the deep ball and finding success series to series. This year, that correlation has reversed. I see the talking heads on X and Youtube calling QB'S "Check down merchants" and demonizing them for low adots. What have defenses been doing this year more than ever? Playing 2-high shells and blitzing. With a 2-high shell + Blitz meta, the better offenses are responding by increasing short to intermediate passing frequency.

NORTH CAROLINA 1H +7 & 7.5 ✅✅ NORTH CAROLINA FG +14.5 ✅ We've made padding the bankroll heading into NFL Sunday the standard.... As I eluded to in the initial post, it's very rare that I add to a position in CFB. Not every bet is created equal.

NCAAF (10/31) This football season has been a blessing thus far as we've been absolutely dominant. It continued yesterday with Baylor that we played for 2u which is a massive bet for me in CFB. Tonight, there is 1 game in particular that I have my eye on of similar magnitude.

BILLS vs. RAVENS (NFL WEEK 8) This is turning out to be one of the most difficult handicaps we've seen all season: Here are some of the important variables to consider: The Bills laying 3+ pts with their defense is always a dangerous proposition. Their front 4 have been competent, but the back 7 has been the weakest in the NFL. The 2-high shell/middle open scheme deployed by Leonhard is vulnerable against Lamar Jackson who is elite at attacking defenses between the numbers. Zay flowers should have a field day. If we look at the Raven defense vs. the Bills offense, I see a massive advantage as well. The Ravens defense is just 19th and 22nd in EPA & success rate allowed vs. the run on the season. (And that's against a handful of terrible rushing attacks) Minter plays with a light box at the highest rate in the NFL, and the Bills are #1 in YPC against the light box with almost 6YPC. The question becomes: How healthy is this Ravens defense? Is Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton 100%? Is Minter willing to adjust, moving away from his 2-high shell, to add another defender to the box to help defend the gap rushing scheme we will see from Buffalo? Ravens have a coaching advantage. Bills off a bye are the much healthier team. The matchup itself is essentially a push. What's the move in this game?

It’s starting to look like defensive coordinators in the NFL are spending more time studying Brian Flores and his innovative scheme, than they are watching their upcoming offensive opponent.

Panthers+4 (2u)🗑️ Panthers 1H +3.5(1u)🗑️ Josh Jacobs un59.5 Rush✅ In Summary: It’s not what you bet, it’s how you bet it. Sometimes when you get lost in the weeds you lose sight of the most important variables.

NFL 2026: WHO IS WINNING IN THE TRENCHES (RUN GAME ONLY) This is a graphic I built to understand the most influential aspect of football; That is who is winning in the trenches in the run game. The metrics incorporated into the analysis: - Run block win rate - Run stop win rate - PFF RBLK grade - Yards before contact per carry (O & D) (Adjusted for opponent) Key Takeaways: - The Bills, Rams, & Steelers have been clearly the best trench performers in the run game and by a wide margin. - It's shocking to see the Bills grade out above the mason dixon on the defensive side of the ball. - The Packers O-Line is the worst in the NFL, especially when we include the pass blocking side of the equation. - The Broncos line has been solid, despite their slow start to the season offensively. They are currently 26th in Yards Per Carry. (Run game under-valued) - Seeing the Texans in that bottom left quadrant is mind blowing. That once vaunted defense is in complete shambles. - The Ravens rushing offense is likely over valued. They are top 10 in yards per carry, but the O-Line has actually been a net negative. - The more I study the underlying numbers, the more I realize the Bengals should be considered in super bowl conversations. Unfortunately, coaching is still weighing them down in my power rankings.

NFL 2026 - "EPA & SUCCESS RATES SINCE WEEK 3" Pictured below is a graphic that depicts offensive EPA & success rates over the past 5 weeks. When I handicap games, I look at underlying numbers through 3 lenses. - Season long - Last 5 weeks (Recent form) - Custom filters vs. corollary opponents This is an important staple of my analysis each week to determine who may likely be over or under valued. The tricky part which requires more time? Adjusting for strength of schedule & changes to roster. (Injuries) That's why it's important to hit the film room and watch the tape to get confirmation. Key Takeaways: - The Falcons are 20th in success rate on the season but 4th over the past 5 weeks. I think some of the season long metrics are still weighting them down in the market. - The Bills are 1st in sucess rate on the season, but 7th over the past 5 weeks. Contrary to the value we might find on the Falcons, the Bills might be a short term fade in the near future. - The 49ers & Lions have been consistent. They have maintained top 5 status throughout the entire season. - The Commanders numbers have crashed. That can be partly explained by injury, but there are some red flags even when Jayden Daniels has been under center. - The Browns are another team that sticks out. They are 27th and 24th in EPA & Success rates respectively on the season, but roughly league average over the past 5 weeks.

NFL WEEK 8 - 2026 It's early in the week, but it seems like every stone I turnover I am finding value. - 5 games handicapped - 8 total bets - 13 units in play I have two stlyes when it comes to the NFL: 1. Aggressive 2. Ultra-Aggressive Let's continue to win....

2026 NFL "Net Unit Trend": (YTD - Week 7) We broke out of some resistance and reached the next extension. Posting a +20% ROI on the season is likely unsustainable. (Target = 6-8% ROI) But I am fighting tooth and nail to make sure this trend continues its upwards trajectory.

It took 5 blood transfusions and 2 weeks in the NICU, but we finally got to bring our baby boy home this afternoon. Thanks for all the support, prayers, and love you guys sent our way the past few months… God is good!

Last week we cashed 4/6 multi-unit bets which led us to a profitable week. The opportunity wasn't quite as great this week with only 4 spots commanding a heavier sizing. (Incl. the Bears) But there are 2 sides remaining on the Week 7 slate where we CLEARLY have a massive edge.